I am waking up in a good DFS mood this morning. I went to bed last night thinking that I had a down night, but when I woke up this morning and opened the DraftKings App, my balance was up from the previous day. I checked my lineups and saw that a Jorge Soler 9th inning homer, plus a Rizzo 13th inning RBI single helped my Cubs stack, and Matt Shoemaker settled down after a rocky 1st inning to score me big points.
My biggest lineup ended up with a nice cash; I cashed in an additional 2 lineups thanks to Shoemaker, and I was up a small amount on the night. Let’s hope today works out as well as yesterday. Once again, there are some aces in plus match-ups, but also some very solid hitting value on the board. It looks like a good day to make some coin.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Gordon Beckham vs. Edwin Jackson – 8/14 with 3 doubles, a homer and 2 walks
- Michael Saunders vs. Ubaldo Jimenez – 7/16 with 3 homers and 2 walks
- Freddie Freeman vs. Edwin Jackson – 7/17 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and a walk
- Matt Carpenter vs. Wily Peralta – 18/38 with 5 doubles, 3 homers and 4 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Dodgers at Rockies – Coors Field is in play!
- Braves vs. Edwin Jackson – Don’t look now, but the Braves’ offense is not as dreadful as it was in the first half of the season. Since the all-star break Atlanta ranks 13th in OPS, they rank 15th in OPS in August, and over the last 7 days they rank 8th in OPS. Edwin Jackson is a perfect pitcher to allow their bats to keep swinging well as he sports an ugly .365 wOBA on the road. Also importantly, this group of Braves loves facing Jackson as they have a collective .361/.404/.643 line against the Padres right-hander. This will be a low owned stack in GPPs and I love this play.
- Cardinals vs. Wily Peralta – Peralta is a pretty terrible pitcher, and 2016 has been even worse than normal for him as he has allowed a career high walk and hard contact rate. The Cardinals are not the match-up that Peralta wants to see as they have a collective .338/.394/.521 line against him. In 2 starts against St. Louis this year, Peralta has allowed 16 hits, 4 walks and 8 earned runs over 10 innings. I don’t see any reason not to play your Cardinals today.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Max Scherzer vs. Phillies – Just because it is obvious, does not mean that you have to avoid it. Scherzer is far and away the best pitcher on the board today with the best match-up, and if you can build your lineup in a way to afford his salary, you have to do it. Scherzer has an otherworldy 32.0% K-Rate on the year while the Phillies have a meager .298 wOBA against right-handed pitching along with an elevated 21.9% K-Rate. Scherzer has dominated the Phillies in his career, holding them to a .210/.274/.342 collective line; and in his last outing against the Phils, Scherzer went 8 innings allowing 5 hits, 2 walks and 2 runs with 11 striking outs. I like him for more of the same tonight.
- Adam Wainwright vs. Brewers – Wainwright had a solid July, but he seems to be falling apart in August. However, if you look beneath the surface stats, you can see that his hard contact rate has actually gone down in August, yet his BABIP is at a crazy high .372 and his strand rate at a crazy low 55%. In other words, he has been quite unlucky. Wainwright has always liked facing the Brewers, holding their lineup to a .230/.264/.321 line and in his only start against Milwaukee this year he went 7 scoreless innings. Wainwright does not cost a lot and can be used to get some pricey bats in your lineups.
Weather to Target or Avoid:
- Yankees at Royals – chance of rain
- Pirates at Cubs – chance of rain
- White Sox at Tigers – chance of rain
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Adrian Beltre vs. James Paxton – The old goat can still mash lefties with a .403 wOBA and 152 wRC+.
- Nick Hundley vs. Rich Hill – Hundley loves to hit southpaws with a .311 batting average and .368 wOBA.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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