My wife teaches at private school and has been working since last week, but my kids are in public school and do not start until Wednesday. That means that I have to work from home today. MLB should have taken this into account when making their schedule and given me a couple of afternoon games – but do they ever think of me? No! I will have to settle for some US Open tennis and making DFS lineups for tonight while I watch the kiddos.
Lineups will be difficult tonight. There are a lot of great pitchers on the hill and a lot of good hitting match-ups. Usually I make a maximum of 8 lineups, but already I wonder whether that will be enough today. I may throw in a few more than my max today to get exposure to all the players that I like. Let’s see what I came up with so far.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Eddie Rosario vs. Trevor Bauer – 8/16 with a double and a homer
- J.D. Martinez vs. James Shields – 9/21 with 3 doubles, a homer and a walk
- Miguel Cabrera vs. James Shields – 24/63 with 10 doubles, 3 homers and 6 walks
- Troy Tulowitzki vs. Wade Miley – 7/19 with 2 doubles, a homer and 4 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Dodgers at Rockies – Coors Field is in play! Enough said. Though I will add that Maeda is pitching for the Dodgers, so the Rockies will be the lower owned stack tonight.
- Cubs vs. Steven Brault – Brault went 2-7 with a 3.91 ERA and 4.42 BB/9 at AAA this year and now gets to face the buzz-saw of a Cubs lineup. The Cubs have a .349 wOBA against left-handed pitching and an .811 OPS which ranks 2nd in MLB. Much like he did in the minors, Brault has had trouble finding the plate in his brief major league cup of coffee (4.50 BB/9) and the Cubs should take advantage. This one could get ugly fast.
- Blue Jays vs. Wade Miley – Miley is allowing an astronomical .299/.355/.509 slash line to righties this year with a .367 wOBA. He is essentially turning every right-handed batter in MLB into Manny Machado. The Blue Jays have not destroyed lefties this season like they did last year, but they are still a solid 7th in OPS versus them. And any team that has Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion against a pitcher who cannot get righties out is a good team to stack with.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Jake Arrieta vs. Pirates – After having a difficult stretch to his season, Arrieta seems to have re-found his mojo, allowing 2 ER or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. Arrieta now faces the Pirates who are always a good match-up for him; this group of Buccos has a .215/.264/.304 collective line against him. In addition, 2 of Arrieta’s 3 double-digit strikeout games this year have come against Pittsburgh. If that all were not enough, the Pirates are a meager 28th in OPS since the All-Star break. And let’s not forget that Arrieta is facing Steven Brault, so a win is very likely. I like this play on DraftKings, but love it on FanDuel where the win is worth so much.
- Sean Manaea vs. Houston – Manaea is a pretty underrated pitcher and has settled into a good groove in the 2nd half. The young Oakland southpaw has a 22.6% K-Rate and 3.58 ERA since the All-Star break. The Astros can hit lefties, but they also strike out more than their fair share against southpaws with a 23.0% K-Rate. Manaea has faced the Astros once before in Houston and held them scoreless over 7 innings with only 5 hits and 6 strikeouts. For only $6,700 on FanDuel and $6,900 on DraftKings, I love Manaea to exceed value today.
Weather to Target or Avoid:
- Mariners at Rangers – chance of rain
- Yankees at Royals – chance of rain
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Melvin Upton Jr. vs. Wade Miley – Upton is an underrated potential member of a Blue Jays stack as he has a solid .389 wOBA and 147 wRC+ against lefties.
- Melky Cabrera vs. Matt Boyd – Cabrera is best hitting right-handed where he has a .333 batting average and a .364 wOBA.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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