Yesterday was a good day. My advice of a Tigers stack paid off, as did Dan Straily and Jon Gray on the pitching side. Let’s see if we can duplicate that today. We have a split slate Wednesday with 5 afternoon games and 10 evening games. There are a lot of aces toeing the bump, so there is a lot to choose from on the pitching side. Hitting-wise, there are two stacks that stand out to me that we will be looking to exploit. Let’s see how today goes.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Peter Bourjos vs. James Shields – 5/10 with a double and a homer
- Chris Heisey vs. Wade Miley – 5/11 with a homer
- Corey Dickerson vs. Rick Porcello – 3/10 with 2 doubles and a homer
- Chase Utley vs. Johnny Cueto – 10/28 with a double, a homer and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Nationals vs. Wade Miley – Miley has struggled getting righties out this year, allowing an abysmal .364 wOBA. On the other side of the coin, Washington loves hitting against southpaws ranking 4th in the majors in OPS at .790 and adding an impressive .334 team wOBA and a .204 team ISO. Miley has also struggled in his career against the current Nationals lineup, allowing a .425/.483/.621 collective line. This could be a big day.
- Twins vs. Matt Boyd – It is pick on lefties day, as I like the Twins to knock Boyd around pretty well today. Boyd has really struggled away from home this year with a 5.34 road ERA, nearly twice his 2.82 home mark. While Boyd looks like he has put it together in the 2nd half with his tidy 2.10 ERA after the break, much of that is due to a fluky 94.6% strand rate, leading to a 4.59 2nd half xFIP. The Twins are a dangerous team against southpaws ranking 9th in OPS and 8th in slugging percentage. Boyd’s luck will run out today.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Masahiro Tanaka vs. Mariners – The Mariners hate facing the Yankees’ ace, as their team has a collective .164/.200/.339 line against Tanaka. And Tanaka has been dynamite away from home this year with a 2.28 road ERA to go along with a .251 wOBA on the road. Tanaka has also been stellar in the 2nd half with a .258 wOBA allowed since the break. Take all this together and Tanaka is a safe play in both cash games and GPPs.
- Dillon Gee vs. Marlins – This is a GPP play only, but Gee is extremely cheap on both sites. I like for him to build on his last start where he went 7 innings and allowed only 5 hits and 1 run to go with 7 strikeouts. The Marlins have really been struggling, scoring the 2nd fewest runs and having the 3rd lowest OPS in the last 7 games. Their slump goes back even farther than that as they are 4th from the bottom in OPS for the month of August. On top of all that, the Marlins’ lineup has never hit Gee well with a .210/.259/.261 line against him. Gee should hit value with ease.
Weather to Target or Avoid:
- Rangers at Reds – chance of rain
- Mets at Cardinals – chance of rain
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Chris Carter vs. Tyler Anderson – Carter has done well against lefties this year with a .417 wOBA and 158 wRC+.
- Jayson Werth vs. Wade Miley – Werth is always a money play against lefties as he sports a .454 wOBA and 186 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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