Hitters are the order of the day today as Las Vegas projects 10 of the 15 games to score 9 or more total runs. That is the highest number that I have seen all season, and it means that ownership of players will likely be very spread out. Choose your favorite game and stack away, or find some one-off value plays. Should be another fun day.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Brandon Moss vs. Doug Fister – 5/10 with 2 homers and a double
- Melky Cabrera vs. Carlos Carrasco – 9/21 with 2 homers, a double and 3 walks
- Dexter Fowler vs. Jimmy Nelson – 4/14 with 2 homers, a double and 4 walks
- Jorge Soler vs. Jimmy Nelson – 6/17 with 3 doubles, a homer and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Washington at Colorado – Coors Field is in play, however it is Stephen Strasburg vs. Jon Gray today, so I might look elsewhere for hitting.
- Diamondbacks vs. Jon Niese – Arizona is one of the top teams in MLB versus left-handed pitching with a .348 team wOBA and a .205 team ISO. Niese has really struggled this year, giving up a .375 wOBA to left-handed batters, a .372 wOBA to right-handed bats, and allowing a slugging percentage over .500 on the season. If that all were not enough, he doesn’t like facing the Diamondbacks as he has allowed a .312/.395/.515 line to their current lineup. With a lot of good hitting options today, the DBacks are first among equals.
- Rangers vs. Sean Manaea – Manaea is a good-looking young pitcher, but he has struggled with right-handed bats on the year allowing a .356 wOBA. The Rangers as a team have a .325 wOBA against lefties. Profar, Desmond, Beltre, Lucroy and Beltran at the top of the lineup presents a challenge to any pitcher, but it is especially tough on a pitcher who struggles getting righties out. Start your Rangers today.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Jon Lester vs. Brewers – The Brewers used to be a tough team to start lefties against, but they traded Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun is hurt, so this will be an easier road to navigate for Lester. The Brewers strike out 24.3% of the time against southpaws, so Lester has a pretty high floor. Moreover, after a rough July he has righted the ship, allowing 2 earned runs or less in his last 3 starts with a K/IP or more in each start.
- Carlos Martinez vs. Astros – Martinez has eschewed the strikeout somewhat this year, but he has made up for it with a career high ground ball rate leading to a pretty good overall season. The Astros have not been great against righties with a mediocre .316 team wOBA and a 24.0% K-Rate. And while Martinez’s strikeouts are down, he does have the occasional high strikeout game as he has been at a K/IP or more in 3 of his last 7 starts.
Weather to Target or Avoid:
- Blue Jays at Yankees – 10 MPH wind blowing out
- Royals at Tigers – chance of rain
- Twins at Braves – chance of rain
- A’s at Rangers – chance of rain
- Brewers at Cubs – chance of rain
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Cameron Rupp vs. Scott Kazmir – Rupp has quietly had a very big season and is especially potent against lefties with a .431 wOBA and 172 wRC+.
- Franklin Gutierrez vs. Tyler Skaggs – Gutierrez has been just awful against righties (.210 wOBA 27 wRC+), but is still smacking lefties with a .380 wOBA and 144 wRC+. NOTE: In a match-up like this, there is a danger that Gutierrez only gets 2 plate appearances and then is pinch-hit for, so tread carefully.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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