This is an exciting time to be a fan of daily fantasy, as both DraftKings and FanDuel have announced that they will be introducing private leagues, which will increase the social aspect of daily fantasy. People will not have to worry about wading through shark infested waters if they post a 10 person game with this new league feature, as they will be able to play among only friends and colleagues. Perhaps once this league feature is introduced, I will open up a league for my loyal Fantasy Assembly readers so that we can play together.
In terms of today, it is a short slate Monday with 10 games on the docket, 9 of which are in the evening time. The best pitcher of the day is at Coors Field, so it is kind of a weird day to pick lineups, but I will help you find value as I always do.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Ian Kinsler vs. Ian Kennedy – 7/12 with 4 doubles and a homer
- Carlos Gonzalez vs. Max Scherzer – 3/10 with 3 homers and 2 walks
- Nelson Cruz vs. Ricky Nolasco – 3/10 with a double and 2 homers
- Miguel Cabrera vs. Ian Kennedy – 5/12 with 3 doubles and 2 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Washington at Colorado – It is the return of Coors Field. Colorado is a risky play today as they face off with Max Scherzer, but Mad Max has allowed 24 homers on the season. So while I would not necessarily stack the Rockies against Scherzer, I would not be afraid to use one-off plays like CarGo or Blackmon.
- A’s vs. Martin Perez – Perez is terrible and is a guy I like to pick on. He has an awful 4.34 K/9 and an elevated 3.72 BB/9. As I have often stated, pitch to contact guys like this need to have a lower walk rate and a lower hard contact percentage than Perez’s 31.1%. His ERA looks respectable at 4.22, but a 5.25 SIERA indicates more bad times ahead. He has already started to unravel as his 2nd half ERA sits at 5.30. If all that were not enough, Oakland loves facing this pitcher; their lineup has a .307/.327/.534 collective line against Perez and they have scored 9 runs on 17 hits in 13 innings against him this year.
- Pirates vs. Matt Moore – Moore’s 2nd half ERA looks great as it sits at 2.45, but that is a whole lot of smoke and mirrors. Moore’s K/9 is down to 7.09 in the 2nd half and his BB/9 is up to 4.91. It has been even worse recently as Moore has allowed 15 walks in his last 18.2 innings. By fluke, he has managed to limit the damage, but I can’t see that happening again. Moore’s .165 BABIP in the 2nd half, coupled with the numbers cited above have led to a 5.36 2nd half xFIP. He is likely to fall apart soon, and while the Pirates have not been as good on offense as expected this year, they are still 6th in MLB in OPS against lefties at .778. I like them for a big night.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Robbie Ray vs. Mets – I like Ray better on FanDuel where he costs a reasonable $7,800 as opposed to DraftKings where he is one of the highest priced pitchers of the day at $9,600. Ray is the opposite of Matt Moore as his 2nd half ERA looks mediocre at 3.82, but his K-rate is all the way up to 32.5% and his walk rate is down to 5.6%. This has led to a 2.64 2nd half xFIP and his ERA will no doubt soon follow. The Mets struggle to make contact against lefties with a 22.1% K-Rate. I like Ray for a nice game today.
- David Phelps vs. Reds – If you want to get some Coors Field Nationals in your lineup today, Phelps is a great option. He costs only $4,000 on DraftKings and $6,100 on FanDuel, yet has been an effective pitcher this year. Though he only has 2 starts on the year to go along with 50 relief appearances, Phelps sports a tidy 2.40 ERA on the season. He looked good in his last start tossing 5 innings and allowing only 1 run on 4 hits while striking out 5 against the Giants. Cincinnati is not the scariest match-up as they only have a .308 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Phelps will probably give you a solid quality start tonight and will surely make value.
Weather to Target or Avoid:
- Red Sox at Indians – chance of rain
- Marlins at Reds – chance of rain
- A’s at Rangers – chance of rain
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Paulo Orlando vs. Daniel Norris – Orlando has a solid .382 wOBA and 141 wRC+ versus lefties this year.
- Danny Valencia vs. Martin Perez – Valencia is an underrated lefty basher with a .431 wOBA and 179 wRC+ against southpaws.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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