Good Sunday to all. Despite putting in print that I should exercise some bankroll discipline yesterday, I didn’t heed to my own advice and played double the stakes that I usually do. Thankfully for me, my intuitions were good and I turned a small profit. Let’s hope we can repeat that success today. I have a pretty good feel for hitting today, but I think I will be mixing and matching a few pitchers around 2 core stacks as I do not love the pitchers on this slate. Let’s see what we came up with.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Chris Coglan vs. Mike Leake – 10/16 with 3 doubles and 2 homers
- Brian McCann vs. Jake Odorizzi – 12/26 with 4 doubles, 3 homers and 2 walks
- Carlos Santana (if he plays) vs. Jered Weaver – 15/27 with 3 doubles, 2 homers and 4 walks
- Mike Napoli vs. Jered Weaver – 11/32 with 2 doubles, 3 homers and 5 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Indians vs. Jered Weaver – Weaver is one of the worst pitchers in the game. and Cleveland is perhaps the hottest offense in the league. On the season, Cleveland has impressive numbers against righties with a .331 wOBA and .188 ISO. In addition, the Indians as a team have battered Weaver with a .305/.369/.558 collective line. The only problem might be that this is a chalky pick, but I would definitely play it anyway.
- Rockies vs. Adam Morgan – Morgan gives Weaver a run for his money as the worst pitcher on the slate as he sports a terrible 6.65 ERA. Morgan’s ERA does not seem to be a huge fluke as his hard contact allowed is an unacceptable 37.1%. Righties have a field day with the Phillies lefty as well as he has allowed a .409 wOBA to opposite handed hitters. The Rockies can throw a good group of righties at Morgan led by Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu and Mark Reynolds. I like a full stack of Rockies today or a mini-stack of just Arenado, LeMahieu and Reynolds.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Chris Sale vs. Marlins – Sale goes on the road today, which has been an excellent thing for him this season. While the Pale Hose lefty has a surprisingly mediocre 4.55 ERA and .325 wOBA at home, he is his Cy Young candidate self on the road with a .241 wOBA and 2.28 ERA. Sale has also gotten hot in the 2nd half with a 2.17 ERA after the all-star break. There are few top pitchers on the docket today, so no need to fade the best one.
- Jake Odorizzi vs. Yankees – Odorizzi has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball since the all-star break with a 1.13 ERA and .255 wOBA allowed in the 2nd half. Somehow though, he is only priced at $8,200 on DraftKings and $8,700 on FanDuel. It is not like the Yankees are an impossible match-up either as they are a mediocre 23rd in OPS versus righties. I like the Rays’ righty today.
Weather to Target or Avoid:
- Angels at Indians – Chance of rain
- Rockies at Phillies – 11 MPH wind blowing out
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Wilmer Flores vs. Clayton Richard – Flores sports an impressive .437 wOBA and 181 wRC+ versus lefties on the year.
- Lorenzo Cain vs. Hector Santiago – Cain, as usual, has hit southpaws well with a .408 wOBA and 159 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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