Today is one of those days that I am mad at DFS. Paying attention to day-to-day results instead of results over a large sample size is a mistake that novice daily fantasy players make. My results this season have been great, but man was yesterday frustrating. I feel like I did everything right – picked the right offenses and still managed to get the 2 best pitchers of the night into the majority of my lineups – Strasburg against the Braves and Jon Gray against the Phillies.
So, of course, the Braves inexplicably put up 8 runs and the Phillies put up 10, turning a very profitable night into a night where my ROI was -50%. I may take the day off due to my frustrations; going on tilt is an even worse mistake than paying attention to one day of results, but I can still give you some hard-hitting analysis. Let’s get right to it.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Martin Prado vs. James Shields – 5/10 with 2 doubles, a homer and 2 walks
- Miguel Cabrera vs. Cole Hamels – 8/15 with 3 doubles and 6 walks
- Josh Donaldson vs. Collin McHugh – 4/11 with 2 homers and a walk
- Matt Carpenter vs. Kyle Hendricks – 6/13 with a homer and 2 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Rangers vs. Matt Boyd – Boyd has really struggled away from home this year with a 6.94 road ERA and a .382 wOBA allowed. He also struggles with right-handed bats overall, allowing an elevated .336 wOBA. The Rangers can trot out some tough righties like Beltre, Desmond, Profar, Beltran and Lucroy. And the Rangers are hot ranking 4th in OPS over the last 7 days. I like them for a big game.
- Twins vs. Dillon Gee – Gee has been scuffling as of late with a 5.55 ERA, 5.33 xFIP and a very low 14.3% K-rate in the second half. The Twins are extremely hot, ranking 3rd in runs scored, 3rd in OPS and 2nd in slugging percentage since the all-star break. In a match-up of a mediocre pitcher who is pitching poorly against one of the hottest offenses around, I will take the hot offense.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Aaron Sanchez vs. Astros – Sanchez has been amazing this year ranking 3rd in the American League in ERA and FIP and 1st in win/loss percentage. The Astros love to take advantage of weak pitching, but they can struggle against good pitchers, and have a propensity to strike out with their 24.2% K-rate versus righties. Sanchez is only the 7th most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and 5th most on DraftKings. I like him to easily make value tonight.
- Dan Straily vs. Brewers – First the bad news, Straily looks to be bound for some regression as he has a 3.76 ERA but a 5.02 xFIP due to his fluky .220 BABIP, coupled with a hard contact rate over 31%. Now the good news – Straily has quality starts in his last 7 games, has allowed a baserunner per inning or less in 5 of those 7 games, and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in his last 5 starts. Among those starts is a stellar effort against Milwaukee where Straily went 7 innings allowing only 3 hits and 0 runs along with 4 Ks. The Brewers strike out an astounding 26.0% of the time against right-handed pitching, and while Straily is not a high strikeout guy, he has the chance for a strikeout an inning with this match-up. I love his value today.
Weather to Target or Avoid:
- Angels at Indians – Chance of rain
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Cameron Rupp vs. Tyler Anderson – Rupp has hit lefties well on the season with a .439 wOBA and 178 wRC+.
- Adrian Beltre vs. Matt Boyd – The ageless wonder is again hitting lefties well with a .409 OBA and 154 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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