It’s a short slate Thursday with 6 afternoon games and 4 evening games on the docket today. Offense will be the order of the day today, as the Vegas lines only have 1 game projected for under 8 runs and 4 of the 10 games are projected for 9 runs or more. Let’s see if we can find the best of the bunch today.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Jarrod Dyson vs. Miguel Gonzalez – 8/10 (with 8 singles)
- Brian Dozier vs. Doug Fister – 6/11 with 2 doubles, a homer and a walk
- Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Eduardo Rodriguez – 5/14 with a double, 2 homers and a walk
- Jackie Bradley Jr. vs. Michael Pineda – 4/11 with 3 doubles and 3 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Mets vs. Braden Shipley – Shipley was somewhat of a control specialist in the minors this year with BB/9 under two while having a K/9 under six. In his brief stint in the majors, he still has not displayed swing and miss stuff with the K/9 staying under six, but his BB/9 is all the way up to 5.71. He is also allowing a .420 wOBA to lefties and a 41.8% hard contact rate overall. The Mets can trot out a solid group of lefties led by Granderson, Bruce, Walker and Conforto. This is one of my favorite plays of the day.
- Rangers vs. Chad Bettis – Bettis’ elevated ERA is not only due to struggles at Coors as he has been mediocre both at home and on the road this year with his road ERA sitting just under 5 at 4.95. Bettis has especially been poor against right-handed bats with a .354 wOBA allowed. Texas is 7th in the majors in runs per game and are especially potent at home ranking 4th in runs per game. Look for the righties in the middle of their order – Lucroy, Desmond and Beltre – to tee off against Bettis.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Noah Syndergaard vs. Diamondbacks – Syndergaard is by far my favorite pitcher of the day and would be the only pitcher I would play in cash games. The Diamondbacks are a strikeout prone team, fanning 23.1% of the time against righties. Arizona has also been mediocre overall offensively with a .310 wOBA against righties. Syndergaard can strike out batters with the best of them sporting a 10.93 K/9 and a 30.0% K-rate. In addition, while Syndergaard’s 2.64 ERA looks good, he has the potential of being even better as his BABIP remains elevated at .348 and his strand rate is somewhat low for a pitcher of his caliber at 76.7%.
- Michael Pineda vs. Red Sox – WARNING! This pick is not for the faint of heart. This is a GPP play only, but Pineda faces a Red Sox lineup that will likely be without both Mookie Betts and David Ortiz, which significantly weakens Boston’s potent attack. Pineda has also been pretty solid in the 2nd half with a .314 wOBA allowed and 10.80 K/9 which explains his 3.27 xFIP in the 2nd half. I will be using this play to try to bank a late GPP.
Weather to Target or Avoid:
- Diamondbacks vs. Mets – chance of rain
- Padres vs. Pirates – chance of rain
- Astros vs. Twins – chance of rain
Platoon Split Hitters:
- David Freese vs. Christian Friedrich – Freese continues to hit lefties well with a .431 wOBA and 176 wRC+.
- Stephen Piscotty vs. Jon Lester – Ordinarily I wouldn’t target pitchers like Lester, but Piscotty really loves hitting lefties with a .451 wOBA and 188 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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