Hey all! We have some afternoon baseball today with 3 lonely games starting before 7:00 and a robust 12 game night slate. There are not too many aces on the mound, though there are some pretty good secondary pitchers like J.A. Happ and Justin Verlander. As always, there is value to be had, so let’s see what we come up with.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Kyle Seager vs. Justin Verlander – 6/12 with 3 doubles, 2 homers and a walk
- Melky Cabrera vs. Ian Kennedy – 5/12 with 2 homers, a double and a walk
- Andrew McCutchen vs. Edwin Jackson – 13/31 with 3 doubles, 3 homers and 7 walks
- Matt Kemp vs. Chase Anderson – 6/14 with a double and 2 homers
Stacks to Target:
- Rockies vs. Martin Perez – No, the Rockies are not at Coors Field today, but yes, they can still put up a crooked number. Perez has been one of the least effective pitchers in the bigs this year with a 4.33 K/9 coupled with a 3.75 BB/9 and a career high 31.7% hard contact rate. This has led to a 5.28 SIERA and 4.88 xFIP which are both quite a bit higher than his ERA. Righties have a .344 wOBA against Perez, and guys like Arenado, LeMahieu and Reynolds should have a field day.
- Diamondbacks vs. Bartolo Colon – This is a GPP only play, but for some reason Las Vegas pegs the Diamondbacks as the 2nd lowest scoring team of the night. This means that their ownership percentages will be low. I actually think the Diamondbacks have a chance for a good night. Their road OPS on the season is actually fairly impressive as they sit 10th in MLB in that category. And Colon has slowed down a bit in the 2nd half. His ERA is rising, his K% is falling and his second-half xFIP sits at a mediocre 4.58. Moreover, Colon is usually a soft contact inducing machine, but his second-half hard contact rate is down to 12.5%. I think the Diamondbacks could surprise.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Jaime Garcia vs. Reds – The Reds really struggle versus lefties ranking 27th in MLB in OPS versus southpaws and have a high K-rate of 23.4%. Garcia is priced right at $7,800 on DraftKings and it should not take much to exceed value. And he may be getting hot as he dominated in his last start going 8 innings allowing only 3 hits and 0 runs while striking out 11.
- Scott Kazmir vs. Phillies – The Phillies are the worst team in MLB versus lefties ranking 30th in OPS at .647 and also having a minuscule .283 wOBA and a high 23.1% K-rate against southpaws. Kazmir is criminally underpriced on DraftKings and should easily perform better than his $7,600 salary.
Weather to Target or Avoid:
- Indians at Nationals – 12 MPH wind blowing out
- Diamondbacks at Mets – chance of rain
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Wilmer Flores vs. Robbie Ray – Flores is abusing lefties with a .454 wOBA and 193 wRC+.
- Beltran vs. Jorge de la Rosa – Beltran has been a much better hitter from the right side this year with a .438 wOBA and 179 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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