Hey all! We have a short slate today with only 9 games on the docket including one at Coors Field. I feel like I do better in short slates because my research in 15 game slates often doesn’t produce major differences between certain players and teams in terms of projected results. Smaller slates seem to allow me to narrow my focus a bit more. Hopefully we will have some good success today. Let’s see what we come up with.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Miguel Cabrera vs. Hisashi Iwakuma – 4/10 with 2 homers and 3 walks
- Giancarlo Stanton vs. Johnny Cueto – 5/13 with 2 homers, a double and 3 walks
- Victor Martinez vs. Hisashi Iwakuma – 6/15 with a double, 2 homers and 2 walks
- Zach Cozart vs. Michael Wacha – 10/20 with 3 doubles
Stacks to Target:
- Rangers at Rockies – Coors Field alert! Cole Hamels is pitching for the Rangers so the Rockies won’t be as highly owned.
- Orioles vs. Kendall Graveman – The Orioles are a dynamic bunch against right-handed pitchers sporting a .339 team wOBA and .194 team ISO. They tend to struggle a little bit against high strikeout pitchers, but Graveman is just the opposite with a low K/9 of 5.50. Graveman has faced Baltimore once this season and allowed 4 homers and 6 runs in just 2.2 innings pitched. Although he has the benefit of his home park tonight, I still think the Orioles will be able to do some damage.
- Astros vs. Tyler Duffey – Duffey has very pronounced reverse splits, allowing a .381 wOBA to right-handed hitters. This does not look like a great match-up for him, as the Astros sport elite bats hitting from the right side in Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, and have some decent secondary options as well like Carlos Gomez and Evan Gattis. I think this stack will be low owned and might be your highest scoring of the night.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- None! Play Ball!
Pitchers of the Day:
- Collin McHugh vs. Twins – McHugh’s ERA still remains high on the season at 4.73 but he has gotten his strikeout mojo going in the 2nd half with 27 strikeouts in only 19.2 innings pitched. Further, looking beneath the surface at McHugh, he is bound to start getting results as his BABIP (.360), HR/FB (12.1%) and LOB% (73.5%) all represent career worst numbers despite a hard contact rate of 29.8%, which is slightly below average. This has led to a more respectable SIERA of 3.89. The Twins have been hitting well recently, but they do have some strikeout propensity against righties with a 21.6% K-rate. McHugh is dirt cheap on DraftKings at $6,000 and is a great way to get Coors Field bats into your lineup.
- Jose Fernandez vs. Giants – The Giants are a difficult team to strike out, but this is Jose Fernandez we are talking about. His 13.12 K/9 and 36.4% K-rate easily lead major league baseball and he has managed to amass the Ks even against the stingiest of opponents. Fernandez is the most expensive pitcher on the board on the 2 major sites, but is only $200 more than Johnny Cueto on FanDuel and $400 more on DraftKings. His floor and ceiling are higher and he is a must play in cash and a pretty good play in GPP as well.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Stephen Piscotty vs. Cody Reed – Piscotty is very average against righties (.312 wOBA 94 wRC+) but has excelled against lefties with a .453 wOBA and 189 wRC+.
- Tommy Joseph vs. Julio Urias – Joseph has a very nice .388 wOBA and 143 wRC+ against southpaws and will likely be a low owned option tonight.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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