The Ocho – An IDP Look at the Last 8 Games of 2015

More leagues are testing the boundaries by adding IDP (or Individual Defensive Players). Sadly, some owners may view the value of IDP somewhere in the range of the TE or K position, arguing that IDP just doesn’t matter.

They may simply print up an ECR ranking of IDP players. Or lazily use the projected rankings of the host web site for their league. While there is nothing wrong with using either option, a little more research may give you an edge in the IDP realm moving forward – And what fantasy owner isn’t looking for an edge?

For instance, some experts will look at the last 8 weeks of a season to see which offensive players finished the strongest. Going into the 2016 season, this has led some owners to place a higher value on offensive players such as RB David Johnson, WR Doug Baldwin, and QB Russell Wilson who tore it up in their last 8 games of 2015.

So why not do the same for our defensive counterparts? While IDP scoring can vary from league to league, the basic premise here is to highlight the IDP players that finished 2015 the strongest.

So let’s look at the last 8 weeks of the season – The “Ocho” – which is in homage to a scene from the movie Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story.

The Ocho and IDP look

Defensive Lineman (DL)

The chart below shows the top 15 DL to finish 2015. The first column shows where they ranked at the end of the year.

Oliver Vernon (NYG) finished 45th among all IDP. But the last 8 weeks of the season he was averaging 12.4 points per week (or 3rd best). Had he maintained that all season Vernon would have finished 8th overall.

Not far behind was Demarcus Lawrence (DAL) who finished 52nd among IDP. The last 8 weeks Lawrence averaged 12.1 points per week (or 4th best). Calculating Lawrence’s 12.1 points for 16 weeks, he jumps to 9th overall, right behind Vernon (above).

Honorable mention should also go to Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG). If you recall, he literally blew off a couple of fingers on his hand in a fireworks incident and missed the first 8 games. While he finished 258th in IDP scoring, in his final 8 games, he averaged 8.4 points per game which was putting him in the 63rd overall spot in a perfect world.

EOY Rank Player Team FPts Gms Last 8 Avg First 8 Avg Diff
2 J.J. Watt HOU 265.8 16 17.1 16.1 1.1
8 Aaron Donald LA 193.2 16 14.7 9.5 5.2
45 Olivier Vernon NYG 149.5 15 12.4 6.3 6.2
52 Demarcus Lawrence DAL 144.1 16 12.1 5.9 6.2
12 Fletcher Cox PHI 185 16 12.1 11.1 1.0
22 Muhammad Wilkerson NYJ 174.3 16 12.0 9.8 2.3
88 Robert Ayers TB 123.7 12 11.4 4.1 7.3
13 Kawann Short CAR 183.8 16 11.0 12.0 (1.1)
18 Ezekiel Ansah DET 178 16 10.7 11.6 (1.0)
56 Everson Griffen MIN 139.7 15 10.5 7.0 3.4
129 Derek Wolfe DEN 110.1 12 10.4 3.4 6.9
21 Carlos Dunlap CIN 174.3 15 10.3 11.5 (1.2)
44 Ndamukong Suh MIA 149.5 16 10.2 8.5 1.7
79 William Gholston TB 127 16 10.0 5.9 4.2
65 William Hayes LA 131.1 13 9.7 6.7 3.0
258 Jason Pierre-Paul NYG 67.1 8 8.4 0.0 8.4




Linebackers (LB)

More was expected from Lamarr Houston (CHI) when he joined the Bears in 2014. He may have shown some of that in the last 8 weeks. While Houston finished 105th overall among IDP, had he maintained his 8-game pace of 10.3 points for all 16, he would have finished 27th.

His teammate Willie Young, who just signed a 2-year extension, was next with 9.9 points in the last 8 games of 2015. Young needs to stay healthy, but he could project to a top 30 LB.

EOY Rank Player Team FPts Gms Last 8 Avg First 8 Avg Diff
3 Deone Bucannon ARI 229.9 16 16.3 12.5 3.8
6 Mark Barron LA 212.2 16 14.7 11.9 2.8
105 Lamarr Houston CHI 117.2 14 10.3 4.3 6.0
168 Willie Young CHI 98.8 13 9.9 2.4 7.5
140 Preston Smith WAS 107.9 15 8.6 4.9 3.8
127 Shea McClellin NE 110.4 10 8.4 5.4 3.0
227 David Bass TEN 76.7 13 8.2 1.4 6.8
92 Julius Peppers GB 121 16 8.1 7.1 1.0
214 Nate Orchard CLE 83.1 14 7.6 2.8 4.7
67 Jerry Hughes BUF 130.3 16 7.4 8.9 (1.5)
28 Chandler Jones ARI 162.3 15 7.3 13.0 (5.8)

Defensive Backs (DB)

A player to watch may be Davon House (JAC). In the last 8 weeks, House was the 6th-best DB averaging 12.5 points per week. House finished 43rd overall, yet had he managed his 12.5 average for all 16 games, House vaults to the 9th spot overall.

Morgan Burnett (GB) missed much of the first 8 games, but his last 8 averaged 11.4 points per game. At that pace in a full season, Burnett is looking at the 17th spot overall, just a few decimal points away from the low teens.

Honorable mention and a player to watch may be free agent Will Allen. The 32-year old was released from the Steelers, but Allen had the 3rd-best DB points per game. If he wins a starting role, he could be a nice late round IDP sleeper.

EOY Rank Player Team FPts Gms Last 8 Avg First 8 Avg Diff
1 Reshad Jones MIA 278.9 16 16.5 18.4 (1.9)
5 Malcolm Jenkins PHI 218.3 16 13.5 13.8 (0.2)
32 Will Allen FA 160 13 13.4 6.6 6.9
15 Ron Parker KC 181.7 16 12.9 9.9 3.0
10 Kenny Vaccaro NO 188.2 16 12.7 10.8 1.9
43 Davon House JAC 149.9 16 12.5 6.3 6.2
11 Kurt Coleman CAR 186.2 15 12.3 11.0 1.3
17 Bashaud Breeland WAS 180.7 15 12.2 10.4 1.9
14 Hasean Clinton-Dix GB 182.3 16 11.9 10.9 1.0
16 Landon Collins NYG 181.7 16 11.8 10.9 0.9
4 Tyrann Mathieu ARI 221.1 14 11.6 16.0 (4.4)
24 Reggie Nelson OAK 170.3 16 11.6 9.7 1.8
23 Johnathan Cyprien JAC 171.3 14 11.5 9.9 1.6
30 Michael Griffin MIN 161.2 15 11.5 8.7 2.9
9 Marcus Peters KC 188.6 16 11.4 12.1 (0.7)
116 Morgan Burnett GB 112.8 11 11.4 2.8 8.6

Keep in mind that a review of the last 8 games is no guarantee for 2016 success. But DL Aaron Donald (LA) finished 2014 just as strong as some of these players, and Donald kept going in the 2015 season finishing 8th overall.

2016 Fantasy Football Rankings
QuarterbackRunning BackWide ReceiverTight EndKickerDefense – Top 150

 

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Joe Mica
Joe has been passionate about fantasy football since 2001. He has experience as an owner as well as a commissioner in H2H, auction, redraft and IDP leagues. He has written fantasy football columns since 2010. Email your fantasy football questions to joesquickslant@yahoo.com