Daily Fantasy Quick Hits – August 1

It’s great to be back here writing after a nice restful vacation in Niagara Falls.  Thanks to Paul who did a fantastic job in my absence.  I still read the column while I was gone, and even played DFS a couple of times.  In fact, my family and I went on vacation with a buddy of mine and his family.  This friend had played DFS before but not done very well, so one day we sat down together and I taught him how to construct a lineup.  We made 3 lineups together and put them into contests.  I decided, since we constructed these lineups somewhat quickly and without my usual research, to play the $1 Solo Shot.  My friend decided to play the $3 Deep Moonshot.  In the end, one of the lineups did very well.  I finished 36th out of 14,705 in the Solo Shot.  My friend, finished in 4th out of 1,900 or so in the Deep Moonshot.  Our payouts?  I made $10 and he made $150.  Remember that my friends, when you are selecting your games.

Let’s get on to today’s slate which has only 8 games.  Hopefully I can make you all $150 and more.

As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and espn. Here are your quick hits of the day.

Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:

  1. Kendrys Morales vs. Chris Archer – 8/13 with 3 doubles, a homer and a walk
  2. Brian Dozier vs. Danny Salazar – 10/21 with 5 doubles, 2 homers and 2 walks
  3. Alcides Escobar vs. Chris Archer – 8/12 with 2 doubles
  4. Jose Bautista vs. Doug Fister – 6/13 with 3 doubles and 2 walks

Stacks to Target:

  1. Cubs vs. Adam Conley – The Cubs are very dangerous against left-handed pitching and, as we all know, Conley is a lefty.  Conley’s ERA looks nice at 3.38, but he has been a little lucky with BABIP this year and has allowed hard contact at an above average rate of 31.3% leading to a 4.32 SIERA and 4.57 xFIP.  The Cubs with their .351 wOBA and .191 ISO versus lefties should do some damage.
  2. Royals vs. Chris Archer – This is a contrarian play which should be used in GPPs only.  The Royals have been ice cold at the plate with a .546 OPS in their last 7 games, and Las Vegas predicts them to be the 2nd lowest scoring team of the night.  Nonetheless, they have handled Archer very well over his career as the Rays’ righty has allowed a collective .408/.447/.603 line to current Royals hitters.  This is a cheap stack and would allow you to get Strasburg and Salazar in your lineup.  With the Royals’ success against Archer, it is well worth the risk.

Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:

  • Yankees at Mets – chance of rain

Pitchers of the Day:

  1. Stephen Strasburg vs. Diamondbacks – I would pay up for Strasburg today as he gets a team that strikes out at a well above average 23.4% rate versus right-handed pitchers.  Strasburg’s K numbers are holding steady above 30% with a 30.9% K-rate on the season.  Arizona is not a terrible hitting team but their .314 wOBA against righties is nothing to write home about.  I could see a game where Strasburg allows 2 runs or less with over a strikeout per inning.
  2. Jimmy Nelson vs. Padres – Nelson has terrible lefty/righty splits; he allows a .355 wOBA to LHB and only .283 to RHB.  This pick would be a slam dunk if the Padres still had Melvin Upton Jr. and Matt Kemp anchoring their lineup with Wil Myers. Now with those guys gone, the Pads can throw some more lefties at Nelson.  The problem for them?  Most of these lefties are replacement level guys.  The only real major league hitters that the Padres have these days are Derek Norris and Wil Myers, and they are both right-handed.  I like Nelson to stymie the Pads who still sport a 24.6% K-rate versus right-handed pitching.

Platoon Split Hitters:

  1. Logan Forsythe vs. Danny Duffy – .390 wOBA and 150 wRC+ versus LHP
  2. Xander Bogaerts vs. James Paxton – .405 wOBA and 152 wRC+ versus LHP

Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.
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