Neil is away on vacation, leaving me to fill in for the week. I will do my best to, not only to write these each morning, but to keep us all in the black until his return. Some big call ups today as David Dahl comes up for the Rockies to face Yovanni Gallardo (only $2,700 on DK) and the Astros’ Alex Bregman faces Michael Pineda ($3,300 on DK). Both make for good value, though I suspect their ownership levels will be quite high.
If you’re like me, you HATE Mondays. Today is no different – in fact, I may hate today more than most. With that kind of positive energy and enthusiasm, let jump right into it!
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- David Ortiz vs Justin Verlander – 11/29 with 4 doubles and 2 home runs
- Carlos Correa vs Michael Pineda – 5/6 with 2 doubles and 2 home runs
- Carlos Gonzalez vs Yovanni Gallardo – 7/17 with 2 doubles and a home run
- Marcell Ozuna vs Jeremy Helllickson – 4-9 with 2 doubles, a homer, and 2 walks
- Carlos Beltran vs Dallas Keuchel – 5/12 with a double and a home run
Stacks to Target:
- Angels vs Ian Kennedy – Kennedy has been pretty solid at home this year. That is, until he gave up four home runs to the Indians last week in 4.1 innings. He has actually given up 18 long balls in his last 9 starts. Today he gets the hot-hitting Angels who are the second best offensive club this month with a .343 wOBA. They also have the lowest K rate in the majors during this time. Kennedy is 0-3 lifetime in four starts against the Angels with a 6.35 ERA, allowing 22 hits in just 17 innings of work.
- Reds vs Jake Peavy – Peavy looks like a great home pitcher with a 3.98 ERA this year at AT&T Park. However, he has a .297 BAA, and his 4.95 xFIP is worse than his road mark. Today he gets the Reds, who torched him for his worst start of the year in May, hitting 4 home runs and scoring 7 times. The Reds are the second best hitting team in the majors over the past week, and should continue that success against a weak starting pitcher.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Cardinals at Mets – Chance of thunderstorms
- Tigers at Red Sox – Chance of thunderstorms
- Reds at Giants – 12 MPH wind blowing out
- Athletics at Rangers – 10 MPH wind blowing in
Pitchers of the Day:
- Dallas Keuchel vs Yankees – Don’t look now, but Keuchel’s velocity is up and he is riding a 6-game QS streak. He has a 3-1 lifetime mark against the Yankees with a 1.45 ERA. Keuchel is also better at home, all while holding current Yankees to a .209 AVG in 82 at bats. New York is the 4th worst team against LHP with a .304 wOBA, and they only have a .305 wOBA for the month of July. If all that wasn’t enough, Keuchel is priced at just $8,000 on Draft Kings, as the 10th highest priced arm on a shorter slate today. Start with confidence!
- Anthony DeSclafani vs Giants – Maybe I’ve just got something for 6-game QS streaks, but DeSclafani looks like a good bet today in San Fran. Since his return in June, DeSclafani has 7 QS in 8 GS and hasn’t walked more than 2 in a game since June 15. The Giants meanwhile are scuffling, as the 8th worst hitting team over the past two weeks. The wind is blowing out, but only the Braves have hit fewer home runs at home than the Giants this year.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- C.Maybin vs D.Pomeranz – .379/.474/.440 line vs LHP this year
- D. Gregorius and C. Beltran vs D. Keuchel – Together are batting .351 vs LHP in 185 AB
- J.Smolinski vs M.Perez – Smolinski crushes LHP. Has a 1.206 OPS this year against them.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @FantasyAssembly
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