I am a bit annoyed today. Right before game time, I always check lineups for the 8-9 lineups that I make to be sure that there are no late scratches. Yesterday, when I made that check, I saw that my favorite punt play of the day, Jake Smolinski, was listed as not starting, so I pulled him out of the 5 lineups where I placed him. Only, it turns out that DraftKings was giving me some bad information as Smolinski not only played, he went 2/4 with a homer. That ended up costing me a nice amount of coin. Hopefully we can do a little bit better on today’s Sunday slate.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and espn. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Jose Abreu vs. Anibal Sanchez – 6/11 with 2 homers, 2 doubles and 2 walks
- David Ortiz vs. Tommy Millone – 3/10 with 3 homers and 2 walks. NOTE: Early indications are that Papi will be sitting this game out, so make sure to check lineups.
- Dustin Pedroia vs. Tommy Millone – 5/10 with a double, a homer and 2 walks
- Nori Aoki vs. J.A. Happ – 7/14 with 2 doubles and a homer
Stacks to Target:
- Braves at Rockies – Coors Field Alert!!
- Mariners vs. J.A. Happ – This might be a lightly owned stack because of Happ’s 3.43 ERA, but don’t forget that the regression monster is bound to get him as his SIERA sits at 4.30 and his 78.8% strand rate is unlike anything that he has produced previously in his career. The Mariners have the 3rd most runs in the majors against lefties, and they have destroyed Happ in their previous meetings with their current players holding a .393/.431/.708 collective line against him.
- White Sox vs. Anibal Sanchez – Sanchez has been just brutal this year with a 6.60 ERA, 4.19 BB/9 and 32.4% hard contact allowed. He has also not fared well against this current White Sox group who boast a .374/.393/.568 collective line against him. Start your Pale Hose with confidence.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Braves at Rockies – chance of rain
Pitchers of the Day:
- Lucas Giolito vs. Padres – Giolito is very reasonably priced today at $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He has a cake match-up with the Padres who have a .288 wOBA against righties and strike out at a 24.6% rate. Giolito struck out over a batter an inning at AAA this year and has a great shot at a win as well.
- Steven Matz vs. Marlins – The Marlins are not great against southpaws with a 23.3% K-Rate and a .319 wOBA. I love Matz’s DraftKings price ($8,300) and his best start according to game score of his last 9 starts came against these Marlins on July 5, when he allowed only 2 runs and 6 hits over 7 innings with 6 strikeouts. I like Matz for another solid game today.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Nelson Cruz vs. J.A. Happ – Cruz can still mash lefties with a .437 wOBA and 182 wRC+.
- Josh Donaldson vs. Wade Miley – Donaldson’s numbers against righies are improving, but he still prefers destroying southpaws with a .449 wOBA and 185 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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