Hello all! It’s great to be back in this space. I was away this weekend, picking up my daughter from sleepaway camp in Ottawa, Ontario. On Saturday night we were at a hotel in Ottawa and my wife and younger daughter were asleep early. I decided to quickly make one DraftKings lineup on the 2 game late night slate. I anticipated that the Padres would be lightly owned and felt that James Shields would be the most lightly owned pitcher on the small slate and decided that my best chance at a high finish would be to play that combo. While it was only a $30 haul, I was proud of my 8th place finish out of 784.
As for today, there are a whole lot of aces pitching with Jose Fernandez, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Steven Matz and Jon Lester leading the way. There is also a game at Coors back in our lives so there will be many lineup making options. Days like this are most fun for me, so let’s see how we do.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Danny Valencia vs. Dallas Keuchel – 7/13 with 2 homers, 2 doubles and 3 walks
- Mark Trumbo vs. Ivan Nova – 10/19 with 3 homers, a double and a walk
- Alex Rodriguez vs. Kevin Gausman – 5/11 with 2 homers and a double
- Mike Aviles vs. Ricky Nolasco – 814 with a homer and a double
Stacks to Target:
- Rays at Rockies – Coors Field Alert!!
- Tigers vs. Ricky Nolasco – Nolasco is really struggling with same side hitters this year, as righties have a .360 wOBA and .513 SLG% against him. Detroit is obviously very righty heavy and Nolasco won’t want to see them. As further evidence of his struggles versus Detroit, Nolasco has allowed a .383/.420/.526 career line to these Detroit hitters. Start your Tigers with confidence.
- Cardinals vs. Christian Friedrich – Friedrich started off the season like a house on fire, but he has really regressed recently. In his last 26 innings pitched, Friedrich has allowed 24 earned runs. He is also giving up a huge amount of hard contact this year with a 34.8% hard contact rate. The Cardinals are heating up, scoring the 3rd most runs of any National League team in July. I like them for a nice game today.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Marlins at Phillies – 11 MPH wind blowing out
- Rays at Rockies – Chance of rain
Pitchers of the Day:
- Jose Fernandez vs. Phillies – Fernandez might be the best fantasy pitcher in major league baseball. He has struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings in 13 of his 17 starts this year. The Phillies are not a team that looks to be particularly scary for Fernandez as they rank 29th at home with an abysmal .646 OPS. Fernandez is worth his high salary today.
- Brandon Finnegan vs. Braves – The Braves are terrible versus left-handed pitchers ranking 29th in OPS at .641, and they are terrible on the road, ranking dead last in OPS at .653. Finnegan is the 2nd cheapest pitcher on DraftKings today and should easily make his value at $5,400. In his only previous start against Atlanta he went 6 innings allowing 4 hits and 1 earned run. I would expect more of the same today.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Stephen Piscotty vs. Christian Friedrich – Piscotty is hurting lefties this year with a .462 wOBA and 194 wRC+.
- Melky Cabrera vs. Wade Leblanc – Cabrera is a much better hitter from the right side as he has a robust .370 wOBA and 131 wRC+ against southpaws.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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