Hello all! I am zonked this morning after being up until about 2 a.m. watching UFC 200. I am not a huge MMA guy, but I decided to make things interesting for myself and picked a DraftKings MMA team. I looked at the scoring rules for about 5 minutes and then locked in a lineup and somehow I did OK – finishing 3,843rd out of 39,215 and making a cool $7 on a $3 investment. I think that’s my last MMA action until UFC 300, so I will retire with a fantastic ROI of 133%!
As for baseball, it’s the last day before the all-star break, so we’ll have to get our game on today. There are a lot of lefties on the hill so look for some good cheap platoon split hitters if you want to slot in Coors Field, Madison Bumgarner or Carlos Carrasco. On another note, during these four days off, I will try to write one or two strategy articles so be sure to look out for those.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Curt Casali vs. David Price – 6/11 with 3 homers and a double
- Yoenis Cespedes vs. Gio Gonzalez – 6/10 with 2 homers and 2 walks. NOTE: – Cespedes will probably miss this game due to injury
- Danny Valencia vs. Dallas Keuchel – 7/12 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and a walk
- Kris Bryant vs. Jon Niese – 5/10 with a homer and 2 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Phillies vs. Rockies – Coors Field! Enough said.
- Blue Jays vs. Anibal Sanchez – Sanchez has been terrible this year with a 6.52 ERA and 5.22 xFIP. His walks are way up at more than 4 per 9 innings and his K/9 is down to 7.44. His 32.7% hard contact would represent a career high as would his 42.4% fly ball rate. Sanchez’s ground ball rate is also near a career low. To top it all off, his velocity is down over one MPH since last year and over two MPH since 3 years ago. The Blue Jays are hot with an .852 OPS in July. They should pummel this cream puff.
- Astros vs. Sean Manaea – Manaea has been great against left-handed hitters in his young career, holding them to a .257 wOBA. However, he has struggled mightily with righties as Manaea allows a .377 wOBA to opposite handed hitters. The Astros top 5 has three of the best right-handed hitters in the business with Altuve, Correa and Springer. I think the Astros will hit Manaea even harder than they did back in April when they scored 4 runs in 5 innings off of the A’s southpaw.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- None! Let’s play Ball!!
Pitchers of the Day:
- David Price vs. Rays – While the Rays have been rock solid against lefties, they are striking out at a 23.9% clip against left-handed pitching. Price’s K/9 sits at a career high of 10.06 and he is 1st in the AL in strikeouts. He is also not pitching as badly as his ERA suggests with his FIP ranking 6th in the American League. Price’s BABIP and HR/FB% would be career highs, and his strand rate would be his lowest since 2009. I think these stats will normalize soon and Price will be an ace again in real life and in fantasy. He is only the 4th most expensive pitcher on DraftKings today at an affordable $10,000, and 3rd most expensive on FanDuel at $10,200. I will have over 50% exposure.
- Cody Reed vs. Marlins – Reed has not been all that impressive yet in his brief major league career, but 2 of his 4 starts have come against the Cubs, so I think he needs to be given some leeway. Reed’s ERA may be 9.00 but his BABIP is .362, his strand rate is 54% and his HR/FB% is a ridiculous 38.1%. Reed has been over a strikeout an inning in 3 of his 4 starts, and Miami has a 23.5% strikeout rate versus lefties. He’ll have to be careful with Ozuna and Stanton but I think Reed can have a productive game with a bunch of strikeouts for a cheap price. He is a good differentiator in GPPs today.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Ryan Rua vs. Tommy Milone – Rua is a professional lefty basher and he hasn’t disappointed this year with a .409 wOBA and 152 wRC+.
- Javier Baez vs. Jon Niese – Baez has excelled against southpaws with a .448 wOBA and 183 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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