Howdy folks! This is going to be an epic sports day. The morning starts with a great Wimbledon Women’s Final as Serena Williams faces Angelique Kerber and then ends late in the evening it is UFC 200 with some amazing mixed martial arts fights. In between, I’ll have some family time and watch some baseball. It should be a pretty good slate for baseball as some top pitchers like Danny Salazar and Max Scherzer take the hill, and there is a pretty good chance for some runs in Coors and elsewhere. Let’s see what kind of value we can find.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Jeff Francoeur vs. Jose Quintana – 6/10 with a double, a homer and 3 walks
- Travis Shaw vs. Matt Moore – 5/10 with a double, a homer and a walk. NOTE: – Shaw may miss this game with a minor leg ailment
- Prince Fielder vs. Ricky Nolasco – 3/10 with 2 homers and 5 walks
- Albert Pujols vs. Yovani Gallardo – 13/30 with 2 doubles, 4 homers and 5 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Phillies vs. Rockies – Coors Field is in play today, so as always, this is a great place to pay for hitting.
- Orioles vs. Nick Tropeano – Tropeano has a tidy 3.28 ERA. but he looks to be a paper tiger as his xFIP sits at 5.06 which is mainly due to an unsustainable 89.7% strand rate. Tropeano’s hard contact allowed is at 34.9% and his fly ball rate is also high at 48.5%. The Orioles don’t look like a good match-up for him as they can certainly lift the ball and many of Tropeano’s fly ball outs will turn into homers. This is a good game to play one-off players as well as a stack.
- Astros vs. Kendall Graveman – The Astros are among the safest teams to target when a strikeout pitcher is on the hill, as they strikeout among the most in the majors. But when a non-strikeout pitcher takes the hill, they are a good offense to target as their power bats play well in those scenarios. Graveman is a pitch to contact guy with his 6.02 K/9 this season. Earlier this season he allowed 7 hits and 5 runs to the Astros in only 4.1 innings. This could be a similar outing.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Braves at White Sox – 12 MPH wind blowing out
- Cubs at Pirates – 12 MPH wind blowing out
- Nationals vs. Mets – Chance of rain
Pitchers of the Day:
- Aaron Sanchez vs. Tigers – Sanchez has allowed a very low .256 wOBA to right-handed batters this year, and the Tigers are extremely righty heavy. In his only start against Detroit this year, he had what might be his best start of the season allowing two runs on three hits over 8 innings with 12 strikeouts. Note that this is a FanDuel play only because the game starts at 1:07 p.m. and the DraftKings slate starts at 2:10.
- Carlos Martinez vs. Brewers – As we all know by now, the Brewers strike out at a ridiculous 26.0% rate against right-handed pitching. Martinez has been really solid recently, registering a quality start in 7 straight outings and allowing one run or less in 5 of those 7 starts. Included in that stretch was an 8 inning shutout performance against the Brewers where Martinez struck out eight batters. Get him in your lineups.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Marcell Ozuna vs. John Lamb – Ozuna has been impressive against lefties this year with a .495 wOBA and 215 wRC+.
- Kendrys Morales vs. Wade Miley – Morales has been hot as a pistol recently and he is a much better hitter from the right side with a .400 wOBA and 151 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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