Today should be a great day of baseball. There are aces aplenty pitching as Corey Kluber, Cole Hamels, Jake Arrieta, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg and Jose Fernandez all take the mound. There is also a game in Coors Field so the choice in GPPs will be to pay for offense or pitching. Should be a fun challenge.
I had a good day yesterday, finishing 16th out of 4,705 in the 3 entry max Slider on DraftKings (I had another entry finish 80th as well). But as is usually the case with daily fantasy, even when you do well, there is always a “what could have been”. I had Jason Hammel in the 16th place lineup and he got pulled with a hand cramp after 5 innings. The few points that he could have gained if he would have pitched a couple of more innings could have put me in the top 10. Oh well – can’t complain too much. Let’s see what kind of value we can find today.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Justin Turner vs. Andrew Cashner – 5/8 with 2 doubles
- Kris Bryant vs. Francisco Liriano – 4/9 with 2 doubles, a homer and a walk
- Nick Castellanos vs. J.A. Happ – 4/8 with 2 doubles and a walk
- Adam Jones vs. Matt Shoemaker – 3/9 with 2 homers
Stacks to Target:
- Phillies vs. Rockies – Coors Field is in full effect. Note that it is Jon Gray against Vincent Velasquez in this game so ownership will likely be lower. I will be targeting this game heavily in GPPs.
- Rangers vs. Kyle Gibson – Gibson is struggling this season with a 4.82 ERA supported by a 4.74 SIERA. He is not giving up a ton of hard contact, but his problem has been his career high walk rate which sits at 3.44 BB/9. As I have said many times, pitch to contact guys can’t be walking too many hitters. The Rangers are a good team at home, ranking 8th in home OPS. I like them for a nice game tonight.
- Indians vs. Chad Green – After a rough first start in the majors, Green looked pretty good in his last outing against the Padres. However, in a tiny sample size, Green has really struggled with left-handed bats allowing a .487 wOBA. The Padres don’t have many lefties and could not take advantage of what might be a huge flaw with Green. The Indians have a bunch of lefties in Santana, Kipnis, J Ramrez and Chisenhall and I will pay up to see if Green’s problems with lefties are real or a mirage.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Angels at Orioles – Chance of rain
- Nationals at Mets – Chance of rain and 10 MPH wind blowing in
- Twins at Rangers – 12 MPH wind blowing in
Pitchers of the Day:
- Jose Fernandez vs. Reds – Of the many aces throwing today, Fernandez is my favorite. He is most expensive on FanDuel and 2nd most expensive on DraftKings (Chris Sale vs. Atlanta is more expensive), but his price is close enough to the other aces that he is worth paying for. Fernandez has a crazy 37.0% K-rate this year with an equally crazy 13.10 K/9, leading to a 2.19 FIP and 2.63 SIERA. The Reds strike out a fair amount against right-handed pitching at 22.3%, and their offense is mediocre at best. I see a 30-40 point DraftKings game for Fernandez today.
- Michael Wacha vs. Milwaukee – Wacha has two starts against Milwaukee this season and has allowed 2 runs in 11 innings while striking out 13. Wacha’s K-rate has been improving steadily as the season has worn on, and the Brewers remain whiff prone with a 25.9% K-rate versus right-handers. If you want to get Coors into play, I love Wacha who has the potential for a pretty decent game.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Javier Baez vs. Francisco Liriano – Baez doesn’t hit righties yet, but he sure mashes lefties with a .447 wOBA and 183 wRC+.
- Buster Posey vs. Patrick Corbin – Posey loves facing southpaws and has a .425 wOBA and .258 ISO against them this year.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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