It’s a small slate of games today as there are 2 lonely afternoon games with 9 evening games. There are a couple of fun rookie sensations toeing the bump today as Tyler Glasnow makes his long anticipated major league debut while Blake Snell is throwing in one of the early games for the Rays. With dynamic young hurlers like Matt Harvey hitting the DL yesterday, it is fun to get to watch the even newer crop of young pitchers as they develop their stuff. I even like one of those guys for a good game today.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Freddie Freeman vs. Jason Hammel – 5/11 with 2 homers and 2 walks
- Justin Smoak vs. Justin Verlander – 5/15 with 3 homers and 3 walks
- Jayson Werth vs. Bartolo Colon – 6/13 with 2 doubles and 4 walks
- Brian McCann vs. Trevor Bauer – 4/11 with a double, a homer and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Phillies vs. Rockies – Coors Field is in play and these teams are in play. The Rockies face Adam Morgan and are probably the better, though more chalky play.
- Rays vs. Hector Santiago – The Rays are 1st in the majors with an impressive .843 OPS versus left-handed pitchers. If that weren’t enough, Hector Santiago is not particularly good against right-handed hitters allowing a .332 wOBA to them. This is one of the two early games so you’ll have to play an all-day slate or a two game slate to use this play, but it is still a good one.
- Twins vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – This pick is all about the pitcher and not the hitter. In a 72.2 inning major league sample size, Gonzalez has a 3.96 K/9 and a 4.46 BB/9 – not good. This year in an admittedly small sample size, he’s been even worse with 3.18 K/9 and an astounding 6.35 BB/9. His major league career SIERA is 5.66, and his career xFIP is not much better at 5.35. The Twins are not a great offensive team (to say the least), but I like them as a stack today.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Nationals at Mets – Chance of rain
- Twins at Rangers – 17 MPH wind blowing in
- Braves at Cubs – Chance of rain
- Mariners at Royals – 12 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Jason Hammel vs. Braves – I actually don’t love Hammel this season as his .249 BABIP allowed and 80.8% strand rate will likely normalize and bring his 3.45 ERA closer to his 4.45 SIERA. But, that having been said, Atlanta is the lowest projected scoring team today with 3.22 runs and have only a .284 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Hammel is inexplicably priced at $7,400 on DraftKings – lower than Hector Santiago against the lefty killing Rays. I actually think that because of his salary, he will be extremely highly owned, so I would limit my exposure in GPPs, but Hammel is a must play in cash games today.
- Tyler Glasnow vs. Cardinals – The schedule does Glasnow no favors in his MLB debut as he faces a good offense in the Cardinals. That having been said, his salary is $7,000 on DraftKings and an unbelievably low $4,600 on FanDuel. This is a guy with a 1.78 ERA and 10.6 K/9 this year, which is no fluke since he had a 2.39 ERA and 11.2 K/9 in 2015 and a 1.74 ERA and 11.4 K/9 in 2014. Control has always been a problem and Glasnow likely won’t pitch into the 7th inning, so I would limit my exposure in cash games, but this is a great GPP option.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Logan Forsythe vs. Hector Santiago – Forsythe clobbers lefties with a .494 wOBA and 219 wRC+ from the top of the Rays order.
- Brandon Guyer vs. Hector Santiago – The Rays aren’t #1 in OPS versus lefties for no reason. Guyer has an impressive .480 wOBA and 210 wRC+ versus southpaws and is a must in any Rays stack.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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