It’s the 4th of July! I hope that everyone in the U.S. gets to enjoy some afternoon baseball and evening fireworks. There is a very nice day of baseball in store today, though DraftKings has eliminated the 11:00 a.m. game between the Nationals and Brewers from its slate. That’s too bad, because Max Scherzer has a legitimate chance at 15 strikeouts in that one. There is plenty else to choose from today, so let’s get right to it.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Jose Altuve vs. Wade Miley – 10/15 with 3 doubles and a homer
- Nolan Arenado vs. Jake Peavy – 7/14 with 3 doubles and 2 homers
- Gregory Polanco vs. Carlos Martinez – 9/16 with 4 doubles and 7 walks
- Andrew Romine vs. Danny Salazar – 5/10 with a double, a homer and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Blue Jays vs. Edinson Volquez – I don’t usually target teams the day after they put up huge games because their ownership across the board increases, but this match-up is too good to pass up. Volquez has gotten progressively worse as his K/9 has decreased in each month this year and his BB/9 has increased in each month as well. This has led to an ugly 4.80 ERA and 4.50 SIERA. The Jays’ potent offense is getting hot as they have scored 54 runs in their last 7 games. And they have a solid .333 team wOBA against righties. The Jays’ bats could be in store for a nice game.
- Cubs vs. Cody Reed – The Cubs smash lefties with a .347 team wOBA, and Reed has struggled big time with righties in his brief career with a .468 wOBA allowed. This is bad news as he has to face some elite righties like Zobrist, Baez, and especially Kris Bryant. In his last start versus the Cubs, Reed allowed 9 hits and 7 earned runs in only 4 innings. It might be more of the same today.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Braves at Phillies – 10 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Jerad Eickhoff vs. Braves – The Braves are coming off an emotional game at Fort Bragg and have to return home to play an afternoon game. Their .285 wOBA against right-handed pitchers doesn’t inspire confidence that they will have a good game. Eickhoff stymied Atlanta in their last meeting, allowing zero runs on 5 hits in 7 innings. He is reasonably priced at $8,400 on both major DFS sites and Eickhoff is likely in for a nice game.
- Matt Harvey vs. Marlins – While Harvey is not all the way back, his June pitching was certainly encouraging as he sported a 2.83 ERA and .275 wOBA allowed. The DFS sites, especially DraftKings have not priced Harvey according to his recent form as he is still dirt cheap. In his last start against Miami on June 5, Harvey held them to one run on four hits over seven innings. I like Harvey to shut down the Marlins again today.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Melky Cabrera vs. CC Sabathia – Melky has a solid .386 wOBA and 141 wRC+ versus lefties. Check to see if he’s in today as he has missed time the past week due to a wrist issue.
- Stephen Piscotty vs. Jonathan Niese – Piscotty is raking lefties with a .474 wOBA and 203 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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