Woo-hoo, it’s 4th of July weekend! What better way to wish America a happy birthday than with some weekend streaming, am I right? Don’t answer that; it’s rhetorical. Anyways before we get to his weekend’s streaming recommendations, let’s see how last weekend’s streamers fared.
I have to say this was one of my better streaming weekends as none of the recommended streamers gave up more than two earned runs. For real! Last weekend’s five streamers went 2-1, with a 1.95 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and a 6.96 K/9. I know, pretty darned good, right? There weren’t even any outs, for Ins, Outs and What Have Yous…only “Ins” and a “What Have You”.,,
|What have you|
Alright, now time for what you are really here for – this weekend’s streaming recommendations…
Martin Perez, Rangers (@ Twins) – Yeah, I know both the FIP and xFIP are a ful point over the current ERA, yada, yada, yada, but Perez is, and has been, mighty serviceable. Serviceable in large part because of a low implodability factor. Only once in his 16 starts has he allowed more than four earned runs (it was five) and 11 of his 16 starts have been quality, allowing two or fewer earned runs in nine starts. The ground ball rate is fantastic, but the strikeout rate is not so much, so there is that.
The main selling point is that Perez is getting the job done (regardless of how), and is keeping runs off the board, but in this matchup he draws the Twinkies. The Twins do not hit the southpaws oh so well. The Twins are 25th in wOBA and only middling in ISO against the lefties. That and the fact the Twins haven’t been lighting up scoreboards in general lately, sitting 21st in the majors in runs scored over the past two weeks, which pushes the needle a bit more in Perez’s favor.
18.2% owned in ESPN, 17% owned in Yahoo!
Anthony DeSclafani, Reds (@ Nationals) – Tony D is pitching better and seeing his fantasy ownership numbers slowly rising. I am just about fully on board with Anthony right now and will stream him almost any time out. So far, three of his four starts have been quality, but in his last two starts he has allowed just two runs over 15 innings. In those last two starts DeSclafani has posted a 2.95 xFIP and a 3.53 FIP, while putting up a 50% ground ball rate, which makes me think he is starting to get into a groove.
The Nationals bats, on the other hand, have not. Over the past two weeks the Nats are 22nd in wOBA and 22nd in ISO, seemingly poised to not impede DeScalfani’s grooving. The days of being able to stream Tony D may be coming to a close shortly, so hop on the bus, now.
28.0% owned in ESPN, 41% owned in Yahoo!
Daniel Mengden, Athletics (vs. Pirates) – The 23-year old Mengden has come on like gangbusters for Oakland, rattling off four pretty decent starts thus far with three of them being of the quality variety. Now, the FIP and xFIP make it seem like some ERA regression is in the future, but one we can deal with for streaming purposes. While the overall xFIP is not as spectacular as his ERA, the home numbers have been closer to the ERA with a home xFIP of 2.64 and a home FIP 3.39.
What shouldn’t hurt those home numbers is facing the Buccos. Over the past fortnight the poor swashbuckler’s are 29th in wOBA, 18th in ISO and 24th in runs scored. Sample sizes are small, for sure, but Mengden has the good home numbers and the Pirates are sort of struggling a bit, so I like him to put together at least a quality start in this one.
16.8% owned in ESPN, 20% owned in Yahoo!
Danny Duffy, Royals (@ Phillies) – Duffy’s first few starts were, well, short, but four of his last six starts have been quality so he has avoided implosion fairly well. Over those past six starts Duffy’s ERA is 3.25 with an xFIP of 3.52 making it seem like the stuff is there. Duffy hasn’t been inducing a lot of ground balls, but over the past six starts Duffy has struck out over 11 batters per nine innings, which is some nifty fantasy goodness. Duffy is not quite a “play every time he takes the hill” pitcher, but lucky for us he draws the Phillies this time out.
The Phillies offense has been near the bottom of the barrel throughout the season, and that has not changes much. Over the past two weeks the Phils are 24th in wOBA, and while the ISO has been decent, the run scoring is still in the bottom half of the league. Okay, so maybe there has been some improvement, but when the Phightins face lefties it has not been too pretty. Against southpaws Philly is dead last in wOBA and 2nd to last in ISO. Gives me a hunch that this start will be a nice bit of fantasy goodness from Duffy.
35.8% owned in ESPN, 48% owned in Yahoo!
Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks (vs. Giants) – While Ray’s ERA is 4.69, his 3.63 FIP and 3.97 xFIP paint a different picture, one that points to a pretty serviceable pitcher most of the time. Ray has a K/9 over 10 and a ground ball rate of 45.7% which (in theory) should limit damage. Over his last seven starts Ray’s been even better, at least in the advanced stat categories, with an xFIP of 3.16, a FIP of 3.62, a ground ball rate of 48.2% and a K/9 of over 11. That hasn’t translated to overall fantasy goodness, but it should at some point – like Sunday when he faces the Giants.
In his previous start this season against San Fran, Ray tossed six scoreless innings, allowing just seven runners to reach base and striking out eight. Granted, that was back in April, but on the season the Giants have not been hitting lefties all that well, sitting in the bottom third of the league against southpaws in both ISO and wOBA. This could be quite the sneaky good start.
13.5% owned in ESPN, 12% owned in Yahoo!
Adam Conley, Marlins (@ Braves) – Well, Conley has not been exactly blowing anyone away lately, but for something good, he has thrown a quality start in three of his last six starts. That’s something, right? Yea, I’m reaching. There’s actually not a lot of Conley’s stats I can throw at you to convince you he is worthy of streaming. The numbers are not great, but he does get a decent amount of Ks.
Alright, you probably know where this is headed, by now, right? Well, it’s to the Braves and their less than stellar offense. They have picked it up a bit of late, but are still near the bottom of the barrel offensively. Even if that were not the case, Conley has only allowed two earned runs over 12.1 innings against Atlanta this season.
Conley should have another good start against the Bravos coming, but since he is pitching in the last game of the week you can also assess the risk going in, assuming you can still edit your lineups. You should know where you stand in your head-to-head matchup prior to the first pitch, so you have (almost literally) until the last-minute to make your final decision. For me, I say throwing Conley out there is the right decision.
25.4% owned in ESPN, 28% owned in Yahoo!
Well, that’s all I got. Seriously, go on, get outta here, go stream!
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