Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 20
If you are a baseball fan, you are stoked about today. For the first time in their careers, Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw will be facing off. The Vegas over/under for the game is 5.5 total runs scored. It should be amazing. Bumgarner also throws the ball today so there should be plenty of DFS pitching points to go around. Let’s see what kind of value we can find today.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Chris Iannetta vs. Mike Pelfrey – 7/15 with 2 homers and 3 walks
- Ryan Howard vs. Shelby Miller – 6/16 with 3 homers, a double and 3 walks
- Yan Gomes vs. Drew Smyly – 4/11 with a double, 2 homers and a walk
- Seth Smith vs. Mike Pelfrey – 7/17 with 3 doubles, a homer and 4 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Mariners vs. Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey is not a great pitcher. The Mariners have a great offense, and the M’s have hit this guy well as they have a .329/.435/.541 collective line against Pelfrey. Seattle’s .339 wOBA against RHPs is impressive, and Pelfrey’s .373 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters is not so impressive. I like Seth Smith, Robinson Cano and the boys to put up a crooked number.
- Marlins vs. Jorge de la Rosa – De La Rosa struggles with right-handed hitters allowing a .345 wOBA to hitters of that side. The Marlins have some solid righties at the top of their order including Marcell Ozuna and Martin Prado. And Giancarlo Stanton has to get it going at some point, right? The Marlins are 5th in the National League in runs scored in June and should do some damage against this mediocre pitcher.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Mariners at Tigers – 18 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Drew Smyly vs. Indians – Smyly’s 3.33 SIERA since 2015 is the 4th lowest on the slate (behind only Kershaw, Bumgarner and Strasburg) and his 27.9% K-rate is 3rd on the slate (behind Strasburg and Kershaw). Yet his cost on DraftKings is essentially half of what those other players will cost you as he is salaried at $6,700 while the others are $12,500+. Seems like great value at this price.
- Stephen Strasburg vs. Dodgers – He certainly will be hard pressed to get a win, so I am not sure that this is the play on FanDuel. But the Dodgers struggle against righties with only a .301 wOBA and Strasburg’s 30.6% K-rate and 2.80 SIERA are 2nd on the slate, behind only his counterpart on the mound. I think Strasburg’s match-up is easier and he is $1,000 cheaper on DK, so I will narrowly put him ahead of Kershaw for tonight.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Marcell Ozuna vs. Jorge de la Rosa – Ozuna is still among the best hitters against southpaws this year with an amazing .503 wOBA and 223 wRC+.
- Seth Smith vs. Mike Pelfrey – Smith is always solid against righties and is no different this year with a .355 wOBA and 128 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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