Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 15
Howdy boys and girls! Today looks like a great day for daily fantasy. If you really want to challenge yourself, try playing the afternoon slate today. The early slate features a Coors Field game plus Kershaw, Strasburg and Cueto (with a great match-up). There will be points a plenty, and the winner this afternoon will have the best punt plays. I’ll be trying to do some quick research at lunch time in order to get a couple of lineups in.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Victor Martinez (if he plays) vs. Chris Sale – 18/36 with 4 homers, 3 doubles and 3 walks
- Daniel Murphy vs. Jason Hammel – 6/11 with 2 doubles and a walk
- Jose Bautista vs. Jeremy Hellickson – 11/30 with 3 homers, 2 doubles and 5 walks
- Luis Valbuena vs. Adam Wainwright – 9/22 with 4 doubles, a homer and 2 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Yankees at Rockies – The Coors Field factor baby! Embrace it!
- Padres vs. Justin Nicolino – People do not usually associate the Padres – especially at Petco – with an offensive juggernaut, but they quietly have the 8th best OPS in the majors versus left-handed hurlers. Nicolino is one of my favorite whipping boys as he can’t strike guys out – after his season high 6 Ks versus the whiff-prone DBacks, his K/9 is up to a still terrible 4.24. And he gives up hits to righties, who have a .339 wOBA against him. I like the Padres as a low-owned, cheap stack.
- White Sox vs. Mike Pelfrey – Here is another offense that is usually among MLB’s weakest, but I like them today against Pelfrey who strikes out people at a Nicolinoian rate (4.68 K/9) and accompanies that with a high walk rate (3.86 BB/9). Additionally, while his hard contact rate is about league average (29.7%), that would represent a career high for a veteran and is too high for a pitcher that pitches to this much contact. The White Sox have been hitting better recently as they are 4th in the AL in runs scored over their past 7 games and I like them to continue that today. Their left-handed bats (Melky, Eaton) are especially attractive as Pelfrey allows an awful .373 wOBA to left-handed hitters.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Rangers at A’s – 13 MPH wind blowing out
- Marlins at Padres – 10 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Clayton Kershaw vs. DBacks – Much like my Coors Field section above, Kershaw is always the #1 option when he pitches. No further analysis needed.
- Johnny Cueto vs. Brewers – The safest pitching option of the day is obviously Kershaw, but if you don’t want to pay the huge bucks, I like Cueto best of the second tier pitchers. His price tag is hefty, but he faces a Brewers team that strikes out 25.9% of the time versus righties and have a .319 wOBA versus right-handed pitchers as a team. Of the high salaried pitchers today (Kershaw, Strasburg, Sale, Syndergaard, Kluber), Cueto has the worst SIERA, but he definitely gets the best match-up.
- Sonny Gray vs. Rangers – Sonny Gray’s 5.34 ERA looks ugly, but his .303 BABIP allowed would represent a career high (his career average is .272), his strand rate is an artificially low 64.2%, and his HR/FB% is an artificially high 16.7%. It is true that his hard contact is up, but let’s not forget that his velocity was down before his DL stint and he looks much better since his return. In his two starts since coming back from injury, Gray has pitched 12.2 innings allowing 10 hits 3 ER 2 BB with 9 Ks. That’s exactly in line with the pitcher that we would expect. You can get him in the discount bin today, but that won’t last long. And if you are worried about match-up; while the Rangers can hit, they aren’t as great away from home with only the 17th best road OPS in MLB. I like Gray today.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Jay Bruce vs. Bud Norris – Bruce has a very solid .380 wOBA versus righties and Bud Norris allows an awful .387 wOBA to lefties. I like that combo. A Bruce, Votto mini-stack is a nice play today.
- Scott van Slyke vs. Patrick Corbin – Corbin is giving up a ton of hard contact this year, and Van Slyke likes to face southpaws with a career .369 wOBA and 139 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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