Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 3
Some days I wake up after going 0 for 8 with my lineups and ask myself why I write these columns. And then there are days like this morning, when I feel like I am on top of my game and that people should listen to me. I finished 3rd in the Slider yesterday for a cool $1,000 (on a $3 entry) by stacking Reds (Cozart, Suarez, Duvall, Bruce and Votto), mini-stacking Rockies (CarGo and LeMahieu – though LeMahieu did nothing), punting at catcher (Drew Butera who hit me a homer) and taking calculated risks at pitcher (Chen vs. Pirates and Pineda vs. Tigers). Let’s see if we can replicate some of that success today.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Alex Rodriguez vs. Chris Tillman – 6/16 with 4 homers and 3 walks
- Joey Votto vs. Gio Gonzalez – 5/12 with 2 homers and 3 walks
- Didi Gregorious vs. Chris Tillman – 5/10 with 3 doubles and 2 walks
- Travis Shaw vs. R.A. Dickey – 4/12 with 2 doubles, a homer and 3 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Nationals vs. Brandon Finnegan – Finnegan has not been great this year with a 5.02 xFIP and 5.22 SIERA while allowing line drives at a 25.1% clip and hard contact at a 33.5% rate. The Nationals are 2nd in MLB in OPS versus left-handed starters. Play them with confidence.
- Pirates vs. Jered Weaver – I have mentioned this before, but it bears repeating that Weaver’s soft contact rate – which used to be how he got guys out – has fallen from 21.0% last year all the way down to 12.4% this year. Not surprisingly his hard contact rate is up at 34.7% and batters are hitting line drives 25.0% of the time. The Pirates can mash and are 6th in MLB in OPS versus righties.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Angels at Pirates – chance of rain
- Yankees at Orioles – chance of rain
- Mariners at Rangers – chance of rain
- Rays at Twins – chance of rain
Pitchers of the Day:
- Vincent Velasquez vs. Brewers – The Brewers have a 27.2% strikeout rate versus righties and Velasquez strikes out batters 26.8% of the time. His SIERA is looking pretty good at 3.55, showing that his skills are legit. There are safer pitchers on the board, but Velasquez is certainly a great high upside play.
- Drew Pomeranz vs. Rockies – My other favorite high upside play is Pomeranz against the Rockies. Though Petco Park played like Coors Field yesterday, the Rockies bats will likely slow down moving from a hitter’s paradise to a pitcher’s park (yesterday excepted). Pomeranz has a 25.4% K-rate and the Rockies strike out 24.3% of the time versus lefties. Could be a big game and a great pick for a GPP.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Michael Conforto vs. Tom Koehler – Koehler allows a .376 wOBA to left-handed bats and Conforto is raking versus righties with a .405 wOBA and 161 wRC+.
- Jayson Werth vs. Brandon Finnegan – Werth has been struggling a bit against righties, but can still hit lefties as evidenced by his .460 wOBA and 192 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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