It certainly is good to be back in the swing of things, firing what I deem to be good streaming options your way. Of course, in my stead the good Reverend, Jim Finch, was gracious enough to cover for me. His streamers from last weekend fared well, but it looks like Mr. Finch got a good taste of the other side of things with his weekday streamers. Let’s take a look, shall we?
Last weeks streamers went 1-3 with a 5.82 ERA, a 1.80 WHIP, and an 8.24 K/9. The strikeouts were a nice consolation prize, sort of like getting a kiss after being kicked in the groin. There was one start in there that didn’t kill you, but the rest were all Outs and What Have Yous…
|What have you|
Those were the worst appetizers I’ve ever tasted. Hopefully the main course is better.
Nate Karns, Mariners (vs. Padres) – I’ve been sort of touting Karnsey since before the season started as a sleeper pick. He has done about as I expected yet remains ripe for the streaming. Although Karns has a very respectable 3.53 ERA, the FIP (3.80) and xFIP (3.78) point more towards a slightly higher ERA. Still respectable, but I can understand the hesitancy in throwing him into your lineup. Another nice little positive note, aside from the 9.00 K/9 I have yet to mention, is Karns has not shown a high implodability factor. What that means is while he may not be ace like, he avoids getting lit up. Karns has only allowed more than three earned runs in a start twice this season, and he has yet to allow more than four earned runs in any start. So, there ya go, low implodability factor.
But really, if you are not yet convinced, did you not notice he is facing the Padres? I hate to beat a dead horse, but you know I have space to fill, folks. Only the Braves have a lower wOBA on the season than the Padres, and only three teams have a lower ISO than the Padres. They are also 28th in the majors in runs scored on the season. It’s also not like much improvement is happening either. The Padres are dead last in wOBA over the past two weeks, and while their ISO in that time has been middle of the pack, they are 29th in runs scored. Just go with Karnsey and thank me later.
30.4% owned in ESPN, 37% owned in Yahoo!
Mike Foltynewicz, Braves (vs. Giants) – Folty’s 2016 numbers are not quite going to blow anyone away, but they will keep him on the ol’ streaming radar. The xFIP and SIERA point to that 3.95 ERA being legitimate and not due to any sort of unlucky. In fact, judging by his FIP, he may have actually benefited from a smidgen of good luck.
Now, despite not escaping the sixth inning, Folty’s last start against the Brewers was pretty darned decent. Oh, and also, this start is at home, and while the sample size is miniscule, he has looked good at home this season. It’s just two starts, but his home ERA is 2.13, with a 1.03 WHIP more or less backing that number up. Folty also has a K/9 at home of 10.66! Wow!
Okay, yes, two starts is hardly enough to believe in, but Folty gets the Giants who, over the past couple of weeks have struggled offensively. In that time period the G-men are 24th in the majors in wOBA, 26th in ISO, and 23rd in runs scored. I guess you could posture that facing Folty is just what their bats might need, but I think he continues to bring that good home cookin’!
4.5% owned in ESPN, 3% owned in Yahoo!
Kevin Gausman, Orioles (vs. Red Sox) – That 2.70 ERA next to Gaus’ name sure does look purdy, don’t it? Well, not purdy enough for Big Kev to be owned in more than half of fantasy leagues. Well, the number would be purdy enough assuming the data was there to support it, but the FIP and xFIP hanging in the mid to high three’s have folks waiting for the regression train to pull on through. The ground ball rate has been consistently decent, but the strikeouts are all over the place from start to start so tough to know what kind of numbers you may get each time out.
The good news is that in Gausman’s six starts he has made it through five innings in each, has allowed more than three earned runs just once, and has tossed a quality start in four of his last five; so he carries a low implodability factor right now. The Red Sox are no easy task right now so I would understand if you are a bit sheepish on this one, but I have a hunch this will be a solid outing for Big Kev.
44.0% owned in ESPN, 47% owned in Yahoo!
Matt Wisler, Braves (vs. Giants) – So, I guess I might as well get the Giants part of this out of the way, right? In case you have a really bad short-term memory, please scroll back up to the Mike Foltynewicz portion of this episode and read about the Giants recent struggles at the plate. That helps Wisler out for sure, but let us not completely rely on that. Oh, no, no, let’s go ahead and look at stuff like Wisler throwing quality starts in six of his last seven outings – including five consecutive starts.
Over those last five outings, Wisler has a 2.25 ERA and a 3.06 FIP, so he has been pitching kind of decently, I’d say. I don’t much care for Wisler’s low strikeout and groundball rates, but over his last three starts the K/9 has been 9.45, so maybe those Ks are a comin’? I may not be fully on the Matt Wisler bandwagon, but I think we should see at least a quality start from him in this one.
30.7% owned in ESPN, 30% owned in Yahoo!
Tyler Chatwood, Rockies (vs. Reds) – Yeah, I know, tough not to be a bit gun-shy streaming someone in Colorado, but Chatty is sporting a 3.02 ERA. Okay, I know, the FIP points to an ERA closer to four, but that could still be a quality start, right? . Chatwood won’t rack up the Ks, but he does induce ground balls at rate of almost 60% which is great for limiting damage, especially in Denver. Chatty pitched a quality starts in four of his last five outings, and over that time is sporting an ERA below three – although a deeper look makes it seem like he is getting his fair share of good luck.
Well, who is to say this is where his luck runs out? I mean, over this most recent fortnight, the Reds are second to last in the majors in wOBA, third to last in the majors in ISO and third to last in the majors in runs scored. Plus, while I realize Coors Field can change the rules, the Reds currently have the worst road wOBA in the majors, and they’re also 28th in ISO on the road. I like Chatty for a decent outing, here.
25.7% owned in ESPN, 38% owned in Yahoo!
Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks (@ Astros) – That 4.18 ERA sure doesn’t make Robbie Ray look like a great option for streaming, and I wish I had some better FIP data to ease your mind, but I don’t. What you can seem to count on from Robbie Ray is strikeouts. Ray is striking out almost ten batters per nine innings and that is a bit of alright, right there. The ground ball rate is pretty decent, but the walks may be his biggest downfall as he is walking 4.56 batters per nine innings. The Astros do take their fair share of walks, but only the Brewers have a higher strikeout rate on the season.
What is more helpful for our purposes, is the Astros don’t seem to hit lefties super well. Yes, I said super well. Against southpaws the Astros are 22nd in wOBA, and while they are middle of the pack in ISO, they are near the bottom of the league in runs scored against lefties. Seems like somewhat good news for Robbie Ray, right? My gut says go with Robbie here, go with that.
6.6% owned in ESPN, 9% owned in Yahoo!
Jerad Eickhoff, Phillies (vs. Brewers) – Six of Eickhoff’s nine starts this season have been quality, and he has allowed more than three earned runs in exactly one of those starts. Not too shabby, huh? Well, considering the ERA is hovering near four, let’s say not bad for streaming potential, shall we? Okay, good. The FIP, xFIP and SIERA all seem to point to Eickhoff having earned his 3.86 ERA, so it looks like what you see is what you get from Jerad thus far, and what you seem to get is somewhat quality outings. Eickhoff has been a decent bet for quality starts on his own, but the odds of a QS are even higher facing the Brew Crew. Over the past couple of weeks the Brewers are 27th in wOBA, 26th in ISO and 28th in runs scored, so I fully expect another quality start from Eickhoff in this one.
15.3% owned in ESPN, 34% owned in Yahoo!
Wade Miley, Mariners (@ Padres) – Yup, back to Wade Miley. Well, his ERA and FIP point to him being a quality start pitcher. I mean, if he threw an exact quality start every time out, his ERA would be 4.50, which it is, so there ya have it. Quality start pitcher, right? Unfortunately he has not achieved that ERA by throwing quality starts every time out. In fact, Miley, has only three quality starts to his name in 2016, so it has been a bumpy road.
On the plus side, two of those quality starts have been in his last four starts, so we’re getting there…kind of. In three of those four starts Miley sported a SIERA of 3.53 or lower, which also falls into the promising category. The most promising thing for Wade is his opponent. Yeah, don’t act like you didn’t see it coming. Miley faces the Padres. Whoot Whoot! Yes, you can go back to Nate Karns’ section to see the info on the plight of the Padres offense, or just take my word for it that it is that bad. Real bad. Bad enough to get Wade Miley a quality start.
23.5% owned in ESPN, 20% owned in Yahoo!
That’s all I got, go on, get out of here, go stream!
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