Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 30
Howdy Folks! Last week, I was really excited on Monday because it was Victoria Day, meaning that us Canadians had a day off while those in the US had to work. Today, the tables have turned, as I have to slave away all day, while Americans get to enjoy Memorial Day by watching some baseball and eating some BBQ.
For DFS, that means that we have a really robust afternoon slate today, and hopefully I will help you navigate through it. I have some somewhat strong opinions today, so let’s see if I can help you all out.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Yoenis Cespedes vs. Jose Quintana – 9/15 with 4 homers, 3 doubles and a walk
- Giancarlo Stanton vs. Jeff Locke – 7/14 with 2 homers, 2 doubles and 3 walks
- Logan Morrison vs. Ian Kennedy – 5/14 with 2 homers, 2 doubles and a walk
- Chris Johnson vs. Jeff Locke – 7/15 with 2 homers, 2 doubles and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Reds and Rockies – The Coors Field Factor is in effect. There are no elite hurlers in this one (I do like Dan Straily, but not at Coors), so target your Reds and Rockies early and often.
- Pirates vs. Justin Nicolino – Nicolino still remains one of the more puzzling guys to figure out in baseball. He struck out a couple of guys in his last outing, bringing his K/9 up to an abysmal 3.09 which exactly matches his BB/9. The Pirates are the top team in the NL in OPS versus left-handed pitching, and I just don’t see Nicolino’s bizarre Houdini act working against the Buccos.
- Cardinals vs. Junior Guerra – Guerra’s surface stats look pretty nice, but aside from his one impressive performance against the Cubs, he has faced some of the worst offenses in the game in the Angels, Reds, Padres and Braves. The Cardinals present a much stiffer challenge as they have the top OPS in the NL against right-handed pitching. Guerra and his 32.5% hard contact allowed are likely in for a long day.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Reds at Rockies – Chance of rain
NOTE: For up to date DFS weather, be sure to follow @KevinRothWx, the unofficial DFS weatherman.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Matt Harvey vs. White Sox – Matt Harvey costs $6,200 on DraftKings in a pretty good match-up – he is cheaper than Mike Foltynewicz and Junior Guerra for heaven’s sake!! I know that Harvey’s ERA looks ugly and some of his other metrics don’t look that great with his K rate, velocity, and ground ball rate all falling while his BB rate is rising. But, there are some other indicators that show that better performances will be on their way soon. Harvey’s HR/FB would be a career high by a fair margin, his BABIP allowed is up at .374, and it has never been higher than .280 in any season. His LOB% is at 63.9% and it has never been lower than 77.4%. And while his hard contact is up 4% to 30.8%, his soft contact is up by 7% to an elite number of 24.2% (for comparison’s sake, Kershaw has only had a soft contact rate above 24% twice in his career – and Harvey is inducing much more soft contact than Kershaw this year). A .374 BABIP against and a 24.2% soft contact rate screams that Harvey has been EXTREMELY unlucky thus far. Against an opponent that ranks only 24th in OPS versus righties at .698, let’s get ahead of the curve and pick Matt Harvey for the win today!
- Nate Karns vs. San Diego – San Diego is last in the majors in OPS versus righties at an abysmal .625 and have struck out the 4th most times of any team. Nate Karns has a .277 wOBA allowed at home and strikes out a batter an inning. With Karns using his best pitch (his curveball) more this year, I think the Padres are in for a long day, and Karns is in for some fantasy goodness.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Brandon Crawford vs. Mike Foltynewicz – Crawford has struggled with lefties this year, but has been pretty solid against righties with a .343 wOBA and 120 wRC+.
- Marcell Ozuna vs. Jeff Locke – Ozuna has become a must start against southpaws as he sports video game numbers against lefties with a .627 wOBA and 303 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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