Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 23
I love days off – so thank you Queen Victoria for having your birthday on a lovely spring day. As for DFS, there are 12 games on the major league docket but only a 9 game slate tonight on the daily fantasy calendar. There are two clear-cut pitchers of the night – Kershaw and Cueto, but I feel like over 50% of people will be on Kershaw in GPPs, so we’ll try to find value elsewhere.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Buster Posey vs. Drew Pomeranz – 6/10 with 2 homers and 2 walks
- Andrew McCutchen vs. Jordan Lyles – 9/16 with a homer 3 doubles and 2 walks
- Alexei Ramirez vs. Johnny Cueto – 10/17 2 doubles and a homer
- Hunter Pence vs. Drew Pomeranz – 4/14 with 4 homers
Stacks to Target:
- Rays vs. Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is a nice pitcher, but one of the best places to get value in DFS is when the Rays face a lefty. The team ranks 2nd in the American League and 5th in baseball in OPS versus lefties. Brandon Guyer, Evan Longoria, Steve Pearce, Steve Souza and Desmond Jennings all have pronounced career splits. I am not the only one who is on to this, but ownership levels should still be moderate. Take advantage.
- Cubs vs. Wainwright – Wainwright has started to pitch better, and the Cubs’ offense has been a bit off recently, but I think that will bode well for this pick as it will bring down ownership levels. Despite their recent struggles, the Cubs remain 2nd in the NL and 4th overall in OPS versus righties. And Wainwright’s underlying numbers remain troubling. His groundball rate is way down to 39.0% – it has never been below 46% and his 31% hard contact allowed would be a career high. I think that good teams can still take advantage of him.
NOTE: Wainwright’s price is so low on DraftKings that I will likely use him in a lineup or two as well as a contrarian play and to fit in some expensive bats.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Mets at Nationals – possibility of rain
- Angels at Rangers – 12 MPH wind blowing in
- Royals at Twins – possibility of rain
- Padres at Giants – 13 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Johnny Cueto vs. San Diego – This is an obvious play, but it is hard to stay away. The Padres rank dead last in OPS versus righties, and Cueto has dominated the Padres thus far on the year, with a complete game shutout last time and an overall 2-0 record with a 0.50 ERA and 9.50 K/9.
- Taijuan Walker vs. A’s – Oakland is last in the American league in OPS versus righties. And I really love how Walker is throwing the ball this year. His walks are down, ground ball rate is up, his strikeout rate is up and his soft contact rate is up. This is a direct result of him pitching more this year and throwing less as his fastball usage is down while his cutter and changeup percentage is up. Walker’s price point is pretty low on DraftKings, and he is my pitching play of the night.
NOTE: Kershaw is obviously the safest pitching play of the night and I wouldn’t shy away from using him. But he is almost too obvious to write about.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Marcell Ozuna vs. Matt Moore – Ozuna has absolutely destroyed lefties this year with a .510 wOBA and 225 wRC+.
- Brandon Guyer vs. Wei-Yin Chen – Guyer is one of many Rays that you can use today with his .424 wOBA and 179 wRC+ versus lefties.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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