Will Emerson is still on the n/a list – taking up a valuable roster spot and preventing us from calling up a guest writer from the minors to replace him. Just like major league teams; the show must go on, and so must field of streams.
While Will is on hiatus, he is relevant in the intro since he did recommend last weekend’s streaming options. The Mike Foltynewicz pick was nice, but that’s where the niceties end. The five recommended streamers went 1-1 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.60 WHIP – I’m not going to pour salt in the wound by figuring the K/9. Not all streams are considered the same, so like always, we have our Ins, Outs, and What have yous….
|What have you|
That was the past; here is what’s on tap for this weekend.
Matt Andriese (@ Detroit) – After allowing one run on four hits over seven innings to the Angels in his major league debut, Andriese threw nine innings of two hit ball against Oakland for his second win. The positives are a low walk rate (he has a history of this), high GB% (45.2), and low LD% (14.3). Of his four pitches he throws the fastball the most (48.2%), but he mixes in his other three pitches equally and all are grading out as positive offerings right now. The negatives are a low BABIP (.143), high strand rate (90%) and high FB% (40.5). Part of the low BABIP can be explained by the low LD%, but overall the BABIP and strand rate are due for a correction. The 40.5% flyball rate is high, but is somewhat less damaging when you factor in the 11.8 IFFB%. Andriese is good, but not as good as he has pitched the past two games.
Detroit is a step above both his former opponents so this will be his first true test. The Tigers are 10th in the league for runs scored, 11th in batting average and 8th in home runs. At home the Tigers are 16th in runs scored, 13th in batting average and 18th in home runs. The home runs are the biggest concern here given Andriese’s flyball rate, but Detroit is in the bottom third of the league for walks and OBP which should help limit the damage. They are also the sixth worst team when it comes to strikeouts – Andriese doesn’t strike out many batters, but he should be able to manage at least five.
I like Andriese for a quality start here, and the Rays (as bad as they are offensively) have a chance at a win with Anibal Sanchez on the mound. One or two more strong games and Andriese could be off the streaming market – it might be wise to roster him now before he’s gone.
30% owned in ESPN, 43% owned in Yahoo!
Matt Wisler (@ Philly) – Like Andriese above, Wisler has also been getting lucky, but you can’t argue with the results. He has a .224 BABIP, and just like Andriese he has a LD% (17.1) lower than league average. His FB% (47.3) is much higher, and the IFFB% (8.7) does not negate enough of the potential trouble. His low BB/9 (2.03) does help limit some of the damage though. The 36.5% hard hit rate is bad, and eventually once the weather gets warmer those hard hit balls will gain a little more life. That’s down the road though. For now Wisler has four solid games in five attempts, blanking the Dodgers (6.2 innings) and Mets (8 innings), allowing two earned runs to the Royals (7.1 innings) and three earned runs to the Phillies (8 innings).
The Phillies rank in the bottom five for batting average, OBP, home runs and runs scored (as do the Braves). They do hit for a slightly better average at home (as do the Braves on the road), but they are both still bad in the other scoring categories. That means a win is possible here considering opposing pitcher Aaron Nola has a 5.68 ERA at home and Wisler owns a 2.01 ERA on the road. I think Wisler’s luck lasts a little bit longer (or at least one more start) and he has a much better start in his second go-around with the Phillies.
14% owned in ESPN, 12% owned in Yahoo!
Tyler Chatwood (@ Pittsburgh) – His season totals are nice to look at (3.20 ERA – 1.20 WHIP), but it’s the split stats that make Chatwood an awesome start today. On the road (4 starts – 27.2 innings) Chatwood has a 0.33 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. His 26.5% hard hit rate is an elite 20.6. The already low LD% (15.5) drops down to 12.3. His 6.04 K/9 increases to a somewhat respectable 6.83. The 2.49 BB/9 comes down almost a point to 1.63. He has yet to allow a home run, and his batting average against is .175. Basically on the road he has been Clayton Kershaw minus the name brand. There has been some BABIP love and luck with the strand rate, but until things start to come undone you have little reason not to keep rolling Chatwood out there.
For the season Pittsburgh is a step above the Cubs and Diamondbacks as far as batting average and OBP go, but they have only been average so far in May. On top of that, the Pirates are in the bottom third of the league in home runs and runs scored for the month of May, and they are a better scoring team on the road as opposed to home. The cool down could not have come at a better time for Chatwood. He should be in line for a win as well as the Pirates will send Jonathan Niese to the mound. The Rockies are 1st in batting average, 3rd in OBP, 3rd in home runs and 4th in runs scored against lefties, and they are in the top 10 for all four categories on the road this year as well. Expect the Chatwood train to continue rolling this weekend.
27% owned in ESPN, 36% owned in Yahoo!
Sean Manaea (vs New York Yankees) – This game is more about how bad the Yankees are. Against lefties and in the month of May they are in the bottom third of the league in batting average, OBP and home runs. On the road they are 28th in home runs and dead last in runs scored batting average and OBP. Now they face a lefty not only on the road, but in one of the best pitcher parks in the league.
While Manaea has a season ERA just south of 8.00, it’s not entirely his fault and there are some positives to focus on. The BABIP (.333) is a little high; Considering his LD% (19.7) is right around league average you would expect that to come down some. His strand rate (56.8%) ranks at 450 among all pitchers in the majors. A higher than average hard hit rate can account for some of that, but damn… His BB/9 is 2.79, but if you take out that first game and he has 2 walks total in his next three starts. Finally his xFIP and SIERA put the ERA in the mid 4’s; not great, but easily streamer worthy.
Manaea was a low walk, high K pitcher in the minors with an ERA under 3.0 – much better than the guys we’ve seen so far. I’m taking a leap of faith that his last game against the Rangers was a sign of things to come. There is some risk here, sure, so if you’re not sold on Manaea then just buy into the portion about the Yankees being bad.
6% owned in ESPN, 8% owned in Yahoo!
Jerad Eickhoff (vs Atlanta) – If Eickhoff can throw a quality start against the Marlins, I anticipate he can do much better against the Braves. I recommended Eickhoff for that start, and everything I said Monday still applies here. Eickhoff is better at home, strikes out more batters at home, walks fewer batters at home, and his LD% is below 20 at home. The one negative area he has at home is in fly balls, but we’re talking about the Braves here who have a total of 13 home runs, so fly balls be damned. No clue yet who Eickhoff will be facing as the Braves sent Sunday’s starter, Aaron Blair, back to the minors. Depending on who spot starts will determine if Eickhoff might be in line for the win – those that count quality starts don’t need to worry about this.
35% owned in ESPN, 16% owned in Yahoo!
Jon Gray (@ Pittsburgh) – Don’t attempt to adjust your monitors as you are reading this correctly; this is my second Rockies pitcher recommendation of the weekend. They are on the road so there is no fear, and I already explained the Pirates slumping offense under Chatwood. That cuts down on half the chit-chat and let’s me focus on Gray.
He has 3 quality starts in a row allowing 2 or few runs in each game. His GB% is over 50, the FB% is just under 20, he’s striking out over a batter an inning (11.30 K/9), the walks are low (2.20 BB/9), and his xFIP (2.19) and SIERA (2.58) say he really is this good – much better than his current ERA. Gray has not allowed a home run since his first game, and with the low walk totals and lower hit totals the last three games, even if the Pirates do connect, there likely won’t be anyone on base to see it. The former first round pick is really starting to flash his potential, and I like his chances of continuing the hot streak he is currently on.
23% owned in ESPN, 21% owned in Yahoo!
That’s it. That’s all I got for ya. Go on, get outta here, go stream!
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