Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 20
What a weird night last night. I had exposure to 7 pitchers: Sale, Samardzija, Estrada and Strasburg who all went over 30 points (on DraftKings) and Gray, Wacha and Harvey who all had negative points. That has never happened to me before. My good pitchers, stacks and punt plays (thanks Jeff Francoeur) were good enough for me to be up a bit on the night. Also of note, the guy who finished 2nd in the DK Moonshot and won $7,500 had Francisco Cervelli, who did not start, in his lineup. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good (unless you are one of my readers “Growe32” in which case – Kudos!).
As for tonight, this looks like it will be a fun slate. I think it will take a lot of discipline for me to stick with my 8 lineups tonight because there are so many plays that I like. There is a non-zero chance that I completely fade Jake Arrieta (remember I play GPP only) because I think his upside is limited against a Giants team that doesn’t strike out much and his price is really expensive. There is a ton of pitching value on the board.
Here are your quick hit thoughts for today.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Curtis Granderson vs. Wily Peralta – 5/8 with 2 homers 2 doubles and a walk
- Carlos Correa vs. Colby Lewis – 4/9 with 2 homers and a double
- Jimmy Rollins vs. Dillon Gee – 14/31 with 2 doubles 2 homers and 3 walks
- Martin Prado vs. Tanner Roark – 9/18 with a homer and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Indians vs. Clay Buchholz – Buchholz has never been one of my favorite pitchers, but he has been far worse this season both on the surface and beneath. His ground ball rate is down over 10% to 37.8%, and his high ERA is not fueled by some crazy high BABIP number as his BABIP against sits at .285. His walks are up near a career high and his K/9 is way down. The Indians have scored the 2nd most runs in the majors in May (behind only the Red Sox), and I think they will put up some runs against Buchholz.
- Mets vs. Wily Peralta – Peralta was never a great pitcher, but like Buchholz he has been worse this year. The problem seems to be his fastball which he throws about 2/3 of the time. In the past it has sat around 95 MPH which gave hitters enough trouble to make him about a league average pitcher. But this year, his average fastball is under 94 MPH and hitters have teed off. His soft contact is way down at 12.1% and his hard contact is way up at 36.9%. The Mets have been struggling offensively, but I think they break out today.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Yankees at A’s – 18 MPH wind blowing out
- Mariners at Reds – possibility of rain
- Orioles at Angels – 11 MPH wind blowing out
- Cubs at Giants – 17 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Gerrit Cole vs. Colorado – I love this play on DraftKings where Cole is somehow only the 8th most expensive pitching option, but don’t love it as much on FanDuel where Cole is 2nd most expensive. The Pirates ace has found his groove recently, going 8 scoreless against the Cubs in his last outing and has a K/9 over 10 in his previous 2 outings. I picked against the Rockies hitters yesterday and it blew up in my face. Hopefully it goes a bit better today.
- Steven Matz vs. Milwaukee – The Brewers are a high K team and they join Houston and San Diego as teams that should always be targeted when a potential high strikeout pitcher is on the mound. Not only is Matz a good strikeout pitcher (over a K/IP), but he has been lights out since his abysmal first start of the year. Matz has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 straight starts, allowing no runs in 3 of those 5 starts. Worth the price of admission today.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Michael Conforto vs. Wily Peralta – Conforto is too cheap to ignore on DraftKings today with a $3,800 price tag. He gets a sweetheart match-up with Peralta. And while Conforto has struggled with lefties this year (wRC+ in the negatives) he has excelled against righties with a .416 wOBA and 166 wRC+.
- Stephen Piscotty vs. Patrick Corbin – Piscotty has been above average against righties, but he has been a top player in the league against southpaws with a ridiculous .505 wOBA and 222 wRC+ on the season. Let’s ride that wave.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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