Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 16
There are no elite pitchers on the hill tonight as JA Happ and Drew Smyly are the top priced options on DraftKings. To me, this is a day to go contrarian. Stack players against Happ and Smyly because they might be low owned and find some lower priced pitchers who can do just as well as the top priced guys. Let’s see how we make out.
Here are your quick hit thoughts for today:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Josh Donaldson vs. Drew Smyly – 7/14 with 3 homers 2 doubles and a walk
- Logan Morrison vs. JA Happ – 7/14 with 3 2B and a walk
- Omar Infante vs. Rick Porcello – 6/12 with a double and a walk
- Steve Pearce vs. JA Happ – 8/24 with 3 homers 2 doubles and 2 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Rays vs. JA Happ – As you can see from the above, some Rays have had good success against the Jays lefty. And this should come as no surprise as the Rays are actually 3rd in the AL in OPS versus left-handed pitching. This will be a low owned stack that might pay off big time in GPPs.
- Dodgers vs. Matt Shoemaker – Shoemaker has been awful this year and the underlying numbers support the awfulness. He is allowing line drives at an astounding 30.4% rate, is getting hit hard 35.8% of the time and only inducing soft contact 12.6% of the time. Sign me up for some Dodgers.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Red Sox at Royals – Rain Possible
- Twins at Phillies – 11 MPH wind blowing out
- Rangers at A’s – 12 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Robbie Ray vs. Yankees – The Yankees struggle against lefties ranking only 25th in the majors in OPS against them. And Ray has the potential for a big game with his 10.44 K/9. He has been a bit unlucky this year as his BABIP against sits at .380.
- Jose Berrios vs. Tigers – Berrios is like the right-handed version of Ray and I like him against the Tigers’ righty heavy lineup. He strikes out a lot of guys with an 11.93 K/9 and has been unlucky as well with a .382 BABIP allowed. That will correct itself soon – hopefully tonight.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Steve Pearce vs. JA Happ – Pearce absolutely destroyed lefties in 2014 and then had an off-year last year. He is back to the destruction this year with a .528 wOBA and 254 wRC+ versus southpaws.
- Carlos Ruiz vs. Adam Conley – Ruiz is one of the best bargains in DFS against lefties as he has owned southpaws for the last few years. 2016 is no different as he sports a tidy .517 wOBA and 226 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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