Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 15
I think the weather will be a big daily fantasy factor today and may neutralize the usual Coors Field effect. The wind will be blowing out strongly in New York, Boston and Philadelphia which could mean a lot of runs in those games. I won’t completely fade Coors Field, but I will be looking to get a leg up on the competition by having minimal exposure today. Let’s see how that goes.
Here are your quick hit thoughts for today:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Oswaldo Arcia vs. Trevor Bauer – 5/10 with 4 homers. This means that a full 10% of Arcia’s career homers have come against Bauer.
- Carlos Beltran vs. Miguel Gonzalez – 5/8 with 3 doubles and a homer
- Buster Posey vs. Rubby de la Rosa – 4/8 with a homer and 2 walks
- Mike Trout vs. Felix Hernandez – 25/68 with 6 doubles 5 homers and 5 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Red Sox vs. Chris Devenski – Devenski’s ERA looks nice so far, but it is not supported by the 30.6% line drive rate and 29.1% hard contact rate he is allowing. The Sox rank 1st in team OPS in MLB and 1st in OPS versus righties. And the win is blowing out today. Expect some fireworks.
- Astros vs. Sean O’Sullivan – Phillies reject O’Sullivan sports a 5.96 career ERA and a minuscule 4.34 K/9 ratio. The Astros are a fun team to target when there is a strikeout pitcher on the mound – but when there is a pitch to contact pitcher on the mound, they can explode at any time. I think this game will be the highest scoring on the slate. Play your Astros.
- Blue Jays vs. Cesar Ramos – This is the last time I target the Jays (publicly) against a mediocre lefty unless they produce results. I still am relying on the Jays’ otherworldly .818 OPS against lefties in 2015 and they bring back most of the same roster. They are bound to explode against a lefty and I want to be on board when they do.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- White Sox at Yankees – 14 MPH wind blowing out
- Reds at Phillies – 16 MPH wind blowing out
- Tigers at Orioles – 18 MPH wind blowing L to R
- Astros at Red Sox – 16 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Kevin Gausman vs. Tigers – Gausman has a 1.29 home ERA and a .172 wOBA allowed at home. The Tigers have struck out the most in MLB on the road. Sign me up.
- Masahiro Tanaka vs. White Sox – Tanaka does not get his just due as he is 10th in the AL in WHIP, 3rd in FIP and 3rd in K/BB ratio. He also has a great shot at a victory (key on FanDuel) as the Yankees should beat up on Miguel Gonzalez.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Colby Rasmus vs. Sean O’Sullivan – .344 wOBA and 120 wRC+ versus righties. And O’Sullivan can’t get lefties out.
- Jeff Francoeur vs. Danny Duffy – .324 batting average this year versus righties and only .171 versus lefties.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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