Another weekend is upon us, and I can’t think of a better pre-weekend activity than over-analyzing your fantasy rosters and searching for streamers. That’s right; I’m here to once again help you with that very task! But before we get to that, we should take a look at how last weekend’s streamers fared – ya know, so you can judge my aptitude and whatnot.
Last weekend I recommended five streamers for my loyal readers, my disloyal readers – basically any and all readers, and they went 3-1, with a 3.51 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP and a 6.48 K/9. Those are serviceable numbers right there, folks! Of course it wasn’t all kittens and rainbows. There were some Ins, Outs and What Have Yous…
|What have you|
Alright, dem’s the apps, let’s get onto the main course and see if we can do better…
Brandon Finnegan, Reds (@ Phillies) – Yep, this one will lean heavily on the fact the Phillies are close to the bottom of the barrel offensively. Overall on the season they’ve been bad, and there has not even really been much of a recent uptick. Over the past fortnight the Phillies are 26th in ISO and 29th in wOBA. Not exactly intimidating to opposing pitchers. Nevertheless, I should probably talk a bit about Finnegan.
Finnegan’s ERA on the season sits a shade over four, and the both the FIP and xFIP point to a bit of regression from there, so we’re basically relying on him being good enough to get a quality start against the Phillies. He has already faced Philly once and pitched quite well, allowing just two runs over six innings. Plus there’s the fact that two of Finnegan’s last three starts have been quality, and in none of those three starts has he allowed more than three earned runs. It’s at least something to go on, right? Let’s keep focusing on the weak Phillies offense and leave it at that.
16.4% owned in ESPN, 16% owned in Yahoo!
Nate Karns, Mariners (vs. Angels) – I knew I’d be recommending Karnsey a bunch here at Field of Streams. Actually, I went so far as to posit that good ol’ Nate would have his ownership levels rise to the point where he would not be eligible for me to recommend by season’s end. The latter, has not happened yet, but maybe it is not as far away as some may think.
In case you missed it, Karns has rattled off three straight quality starts in which his FIP has been 3.28 and his SIERA is a very respectable 3.40. I’d like a few more grounders to be in the mix, but if he continues to keep that K/9 up there, the groundball rate will most certainly do. Now, while the Angels bats have not been so great over the season thus far, they are starting to show signs of life. That being said, they have still been in the bottom third of the league in ISO and runs scored over the past two weeks. I think you need to ride this quality start streak out while it lasts.
19.1% owned in ESPN, 35% owned in Yahoo!
Mike Foltynewicz, Braves (@ Royals) – The 2016 sample size (two starts) ain’t much to go on, and last season’s numbers don’t look like much to build on. Nevertheless, here I am…recommending Foltynewicz. As I said, there’s not much to go on here, but Folty’s last outing was quite sharp. In that outing against the Diamondbacks, Folty allowed two runs on five hits while striking out eight through seven innings. Sure it’s only one start, but the Royals lineup makes me feel like Folty can pull off a similar start come Friday.
On the season the Royals are 23rd in wOBA and 27th in ISO. See, not exactly making pitchers shake in their stirrups. And before you start thinking “well, they could be improving”, in the last couple weeks they are actually 25th in wOBA and 29th in ISO. Also, as I have touched on before, the Royals don’t exactly hit the ball hard. Only five teams have a higher soft contact rate, and only seven teams have a lower hard hit rate. I know it’s not much to go on, mainly because Folty is unproven, but I like the gamble here.
1.3% owned in ESPN, 1% owned in Yahoo!
Matt Moore, Rays (vs. Athletics) – I am a fan of Matt Moore and own him in almost every league I have, but owning him has come with its frustrations. Only three of his seven starts have been quality, so you really have to believe to keep him on your roster. I think Matt Moore is still capable of rattling off a string of quality starts, and what he has going for him here is the fact that this is at home against Oakland. Well, the home part is only partly helpful as all of his quality starts have been at home, but not all of his home starts have been quality.
While there is not much of a home/road split on ERA or FIP, his home xFIP is 3.45 as opposed to 4.37 on the road. Moore also induces more ground balls at home along with more soft contact, so I still like him a tad bit better in home starts. Make it a home start against Oakland and I like it even Moore, er more. The Athletics are sitting in the bottom third of the league in ISO and wOBA over the last two weeks, and on the season against lefties, they are 25th in wOBA and 24th in ISO. All in all I like this to be one of those quality starts for Moore.
37.5% owned in ESPN, 42% owned in Yahoo!
Kevin Gausman, Orioles (vs. Tigers) – Even if you’re not buying the 2.16 ERA, the FIP and xFIP still make Gausman a vaiable streamer even though they point to some regression. The strikeouts have not been there in a few outings, but a start against the Twinkies helped with that. The grounders have consistently been there for Gausman in 2016 which should help at least limit damage most of the time. Overall the FIP has been very good, even if only through four starts, which is promising. The Tigers are not really knocking it around like they should be, but they ain’t pushovers neither. Basically, right now, I am on board with Gausman, almost regardless of opponent and think you should be as well.
44.1% owned in ESPN, 48% owned in Yahoo!
Adam Conley, Marlins (@ Nationals) – Prior to Tuesday’s start against the Brewers, Conley was holding a 3.06 ERA over six starts. It looked like Conley maybe figured some things out, posting back-to-back starts with no runs allowed before that last outing, but there some silver linings from that last start. You should know Conley will get you strikeouts, and he did just that against the Brewers, striking out a batter per inning. Conley had a decent ground ball rate as well in that start, and the FIP makes it seem like Conley perhaps ran into some bad luck, so maybe the start was not quite as bad as it seemed – at least metrically speaking.
So why are you hesitant here? Is it because of the Nationals? Well, did you know over the last couple of weeks, the Nationals are a mere 21st in wOBA? Did you? Did you also know they are just 19th in ISO in that two-week period? Hmm, did ya? Okay, maybe those aren’t even the most convincing numbers, but I think Conley is starting to get things figured out and now is the time to buy in – and not just for streaming purposes.
36.8% owned in ESPN, 44% owned in Yahoo!
That’s it. That’s all I got for ya. Go on, get outta here, go stream!
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