Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 12
Oh – what could have been! It was a very nice and profitable night for yours truly, but it could have been even better. I only used two medium cost pitchers yesterday – James Shields and Zach Greinke and had each of them in two lineups. In one lineup, if I would have played Shields instead of Greinke, I would have won $1,500 instead of the $30 I ended up profiting. That’s DFS for you.
As for today, this is a tough little slate. Chris Sale looks like the best pitcher play by far, but everyone will be on him. I am not sure if I should pay up in GPPs or fade because of probable 45%+ ownership. I’ll probably just have some light exposure.
Here are your quick hit thoughts for today:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Bryce Harper vs. Tom Koehler – 9/28 with 6 homers a double and 3 walks
- Josh Donaldson vs. Martin Perez – 6/15 with 3 doubles a homer and 4 walks
- Miguel Cabrera vs. Chris Tillman – 5/13 with a homer a double and 2 walks
- Jason Kipnis vs. Ricky Nolasco – 4/12 with 2 doubles a homer and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Blue Jays vs. Martin Perez – I advocated for this stack not all that long ago and the Jays didn’t do much with it. Be that as it may, Perez still has a .340 wOBA allowed in his career against right-handed hitters and the Jays didn’t all of a sudden forget how to hit southpaws despite their mediocre early season form. I have called this a few times already, but look for a break out game for the Blue Birds.
- Nationals LHB vs. Tom Koehler – Koehler has allowed a .383 wOBA to left-handed bats this year and allowed lefties a .332 wOBA in 2015. Bryce Harper kills this guy, hitting a homer almost every time they match-up. You also might have noticed that Daniel Murphy is having a nice season. I like the Nats left-handed bats in this one.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Houston at Boston – rain possibility
- Atlanta at Kansas City – windy and rain possibility
Pitchers of the Day:
- Andrew Cashner vs. Milwaukee – The Brewers strike out the 4th most in MLB, and Cashner is usually in the 7.5-8.0 K/9 range on the season. Not elite numbers by any stretch, but can get you more than a strikeout per inning in a positive match-up. This is a positive match-up. A good play if you want to get some expensive bats in your lineup.
- Jeff Samardzija vs. Arizona – Arizona has struck out the 3rd most in the National League against right-handed pitching and Samardzija has been dealing thus far this year. His 8.19 K/9 are no fluke as that is right in line with his career numbers. His hard hit rate is way down to 21.2% after allowing 27% hard contact last year. The Diamondbacks can hit, but Samardzija is in good form.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Alex Gordon vs. Julio Teheran – Teheran struggles with left-handed bats and Gordon has been coming around as of late. And on the year, he has a .358 wOBA and 129 wRC+ against righties.
- Robinson Cano vs. Nick Tropeano – Cano has been murdering righties this year with a .478 wOBA and 221 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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