Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 12
Who else loved that Max Scherzer 20K game? I really thought he was going to whiff James McCann to set the record by himself. On a DFS angle, somehow, I managed to finish out of the money in a lineup where I rostered Scherzer. Jerad Eickhoff’s stinker against the Braves certainly didn’t help. It’s on to today, where we have a bunch of struggling pitchers who were supposed to be aces on the mound in David Price, Zach Greinke and Dallas Keuchel. I really like one of these guys today – can you guess who?
Here are your quick hit thoughts for today:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Mark Trumbo vs. Mike Pelfrey – 5/10 with a homer and a walk
- Adrian Gonzalez vs. Bartolo Colon – 11/24 with 2 homers and 2 doubles
- Paul Goldschmidt vs. Johnny Cueto – 5/12 with a homer and a double
- Brian McCann vs. Ian Kennedy – 5/16 with 3 homers 2 doubles and 2 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Yankees vs. Ian Kennedy – As Kevin Jebens pointed out today, Kennedy – a notorious fly-ball pitcher in his best season – actually has a higher fly ball rate than usual this season. And his hard contact rate is going up as well. Yankee Stadium does not play well for pitchers with these tendencies. In addition, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and even Chase Headley all have an OPS over .900 in their career against Kennedy, and all have homered against him.
- Cardinals vs. Jered Weaver – Weaver’s ERA is an almost respectable 4.72, but I can’t for the life of me figure out how it is that low. His hard contact rate has ballooned up to 37.2%, his soft contact is at a minuscule 13.2%, his line drive rate is way up at 27.5%, and his K/9 is ridiculously low at 4.98. The Cardinals are the best team in the NL (by a pretty fair margin) in OPS against right-handed pitchers at .840. I think this one will get ugly fast.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- None – Let’s Play Ball!
Pitchers of the Day:
- David Price vs. Astros – Obviously, if you are going to pay up, Kershaw is a safer play in cash games. But for GPPs, I love Price today. While it is true that his ERA is ugly, he is still tops in the AL in K/9 with 11.54. And do you know which team strikes out the most (by far) in MLB? That would be the Astros. Even if Price gets hit around again, he could still have 10 K in 6 IP and would have value. He has the upside for a 45 point game in this matchup.
- Vincent Velasquez vs. Braves – Maybe some people will back off the Phillies pitcher against the Braves because Eickhoff struggled yesterday, but I am going back to the well. The Braves remain last in the majors in OPS versus righties and at home. And Velasquez has elite stuff ranking 7th in the NL in ERA, 8th in K/9, and 5th in WHIP. I can’t see the Braves doing much damage.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Brian McCann vs. Ian Kennedy – My play of the day. McCann has a .376 wOBA and 143 wRC+ plus versus righties on the season
- Brandon Moss vs. Jered Weaver – Moss has a very solid .373 wOBA and 131 wRC+ versus righties this year
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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