I’m gonna assume last week’s weekday streamers have brought you back, chomping at the bit. Sorry, just some mild gloating since the six streamers recommended here last week went 5-1, with an ERA of 1.94, a WHIP of 1.06 and a 7.99 K/9. I mean, those are ace numbers right there.
I think I am more than competent at recommending streamers, but weeks like that don’t come along too often, so I’m gonna bask for just a bit more. Okay, I’m done. Now, of course, not every stream was a gem, there were still Ins, an Out and a What Have You
|J.A. Happ||Blue Jays||7||6||1||1||5||W|
|Rubby De La Rosa
|What have you|
Alright dem’s the appetizers, now onto the main course…
Tyler Wilson, Orioles (@ Twins) – Don’t know much about Tyler Wilson? Well, neither did I, but a nice little start against the Yankees and a 3.04 ERA on the season prompted me to do some digging. Yes, I understand nice little quality starts against the current incarnation of the Yankees is not exactly gold star worthy, but it’s still something. Wilson has only made three starts, and while the first two were not atrocious, they weren’t spectacular either. There will be a big regression in numbers at some point, but we’re only focusing on the here and now and why that regression won’t start in Minnesota.
Despite a sub par strikeout rate, Wilson does induce a good percentage of ground balls. I’m not sure it will necessarily counterbalance his overall K-rate, but the last two starts have seen him post a K/9 around six which is not good, but maybe good enough to be counterbalanced by the aforementioned high rate of grounders. But all that being said, Wilson is pitching against the Twins. Yes, the same Twins that are 27th in wOBA and 26th in ISO over the past two weeks. On the season as the whole the Twins have not exactly been tearing the cover off of baseballs with their bats, so I expect at least a quality start for Mr. Wilson.
1.3% owned in ESPN, 2% owned in Yahoo!
Ivan Nova, Yankees (vs. Royals) – It would be easy to see that number over five in Nova’s ERA column and immediately move past him, but that would be a bit hasty. Although Ivan does have that ERA over five, the FIP’s point to something more in the mid-three’s which is far more serviceable. Plus that ERA is out of the pen, where Nova was not necessarily being thrown into high leverage situations.
So this is his first start of 2016, and other than the FIP numbers there are some other bright spots, like a 66% ground ball rate and a 0.64 in the BB/9 department. Again, this is out of the bullpen and in a small sample size at that, but it’s a good jumping off point. Nova has generally sported a high ground ball rate as a starter, though expect it to be closer to 50%. He has also posted a slightly higher K/9 than we are seeing thus far in ’16. Not a high K-rate mind you, but one we can work with as long as the grounders are there, and against the Royals they should be.
You see, the Crowns are 10th in the majors in ground ball rate, and even more fun for opposing pitchers is the fact they have the fifth highest soft contact rate in the majors. Bully for Nova, right? You betcha!
0.7% owned in ESPN, 1% owned in Yahoo!
Kevin Gausman, Orioles (@ Twins) – Come on, you really think if I recommend Tyler Wilson against the Twinkies that I wouldn’t recommend Gausman? You’re silly…. I like you, but you’re silly. Well, if you have a rough short-term memory, I’ll pause for you to scroll back up and read the Twins excerpt in the Tyler Wilson write-up (Cue the Muzak). Done? Good. Twins offense bad – streaming against them good; now let’s talk Gaus.
Two of his three starts have been quality, and the one that wasn’t was still quite solid (5 IP, 3 H, ER, 2 BB, 7 K) and he has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of those three starts. Big Kev’s ERA currently sits at 1.42, and while we know that can’t last, the SIERA of 3.73 and xFIP of 3.86 still make him a fine streaming candidate. The Ks really haven’t been there after that first start, but I think that will turn back around into at least a close to average K/9. Plus Gausman has been keeping balls on the ground and you know I like that! Still not to the point where I’d start him against every opponent, but I don’t think Gausman will have too much trouble against the Twinkies.
35.7% owned in ESPN, 43% owned in Yahoo!
Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox (vs. Athletics) – It can always be a bit iffy streaming a guy coming off the disabled list to make his first start of the season, but perhaps a somewhat juicy opponent would help? The Athletics are mired in the bottom fifth of the majors in wOBA and runs scored the past few weeks, while only landing 20th in ISO over that same span. Even better news is the Athletics have struggled a bit against southpaws on the season, which is what Eduardo happens to be. Yep, they are 24th in ISO against lefties and 28th in wOBA against lefties, so that should help E-Rod out a tad.
I’d be far more confident here if it weren’t for the fact he was coming off an injury. Remember Eduardo was highly serviceable last year for the BoSox, posting an ERA in the high three’s with an average strikeout rate. Very streamworthy, for sure! I would understand hesitancy here, but I like the odds of a decent start.
22.3% owned in ESPN, 32% owned in Yahoo!
Jhoulys Chacin, Braves (vs. Phillies) – Okay, let’s get it out of the way. Yes, this stream is primarily based on Chacin’s opponent. Why wouldn’t it be? The Phils have regularly been in the bottom tier of most of the major hitting categories, thus not intimidating to opposing pitchers. Now, with Chacin’s ERA being over five I can see how there would still be some concerns, and rightfully so.
Well, a lot of his numbers are inflated due to the beating he took at the hands of the Mets. You can just look that start up if you’d like; I don’t feel like rehashing it much in this space. Let’s focus on the other four starts. Without that lambasting by the Metropolitans, Chacin has a 3.27 ERA, a 1.53 FIP and a 2.72 xFIP. The SIERA for those four starts was 2.99, although starts three and four saw that number go over four. That’s still serviceable, and more importantly, serviceable enough to handle the Phillies… I think.
3.5% owned in ESPN, 2% owned in Yahoo!
Jerad Eickhoff, Phillies (@ Braves) – Not sold on Chacin? How about the guy taking the hill from the other dugout? I mean what you need to remember, or just know, is as bad as the Phillies offense has been, the Braves offense has been even worse. In my humble opinion, the Braves are currently putting the worst offense in the league out there every night, ergo, most pitchers should put up decent numbers against them.
It’s not as if Eickhoff has completely fallen off a cliff or anything, he has thrown back-to-back quality starts and his FIP and xFIP are generally okay. The K rate has dropped while the ground ball rate has risen, which maybe was to be expected. The fact remains: whatever you think of Jerad, he is still pitching decent-ish and more than good enough to get a quality start against the Bravos.
22.5% owned in ESPN, 45% owned in Yahoo!
Nathan Eovaldi, Yankees (vs. Royals) – Eovaldi has been up and down his entire career making him hard to own all season long, but he has long been a friend to Field of Streams. That ERA of 5.46 is not so easy on the eyes, but his 3.99FIP, 3.20 xFIP and 3.28 SIERA are a bit more aesthetically pleasing. Although the K-rate has dipped in his last couple of starts, Eovaldi has still been striking out more batters than usual which couples nicely with a groundball rate over 50%. As I mentioned earlier, the Royals hit the ball on the ground quite a bit and also hit the ball softly, more than most which is good news for Nate. You have to pick your spots with Eovaldi; pick this spot.
33.4% owned in ESPN, 16% owned in Yahoo!
Bartolo Colon, Mets (@ Dodgers) – Is it really possible that Big Ol’ Bartolo’s 2.56 ERA is legit? Well, both his FIP’s and SIERA seem to think that is somewhat the case. All those point to an ERA in the low three’s at most, so Bartolo Colon is maybe someone who should be owned. Three of five starts have been quality, and Big Ol’ Bartolo has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any of his starts. Right now I think I would start Colon against any team, and if you’re scared of the Dodger blue…well, they have not exactly been crushing the ball. The Dodgers are 25th in the majors in ISO and only the Braves have fewer home runs as of this writing. There have been brief periods of a rising offense, but even in those periods the offense has maybe risen to the middle of the pack. I think the Bartolo train keeps on chugging.
33.1% owned in ESPN, 37% owned in Yahoo!
Alright, that’s all I got, go on, get out of here, go stream!
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