Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 7
Daily Fantasy can be a fickle mistress – I loved, loved, loved Taijuan Walker yesterday and I assumed (correctly) that he would be low owned. I thought that he would carry me to a great night – but, he got hurt after two innings. What can you do? Thankfully, I “only” had 50% exposure to Walker and cashed in 2/4 lineups where I faded him and was only down a small amount. Let’s see what we can do today!
Here are your quick hit thoughts for today:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Avisail Garcia vs. Ervin Santana – 4/8 with a homer and a double
- Jay Bruce vs. Jimmy Nelson – 6/14 with 2 homers 2 doubles and a walk
- Dustin Pedroia vs. Nathan Eovaldi – 5/9 with a homer
- Nelson Cruz vs. Dallas Keuchel – 8/17 with 2 homers a double and 3 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Rangers vs. Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey has a career 5.32 ERA and 1.479 WHIP against the Rangers. Additionally, lefties have been destroying Pelfrey with a .422 wOBA this year, .367 in 2015 and .349 over his career. Start your stack with Prince Fielder or Mitch Moreland and be sure to get some Rougned Odor in there too.
- Pirates vs. Adam Wainwright – Wainwright has always been relatively mediocre against the Pirates with a 4.30 ERA and 1.365 WHIP. He faced them once this year and managed to limit the damage to only 3 runs in 6 innings but his WHIP was 1.500. Wainwright also isn’t the same pitcher as he used to be as his ground ball rate is low and his hard contact is way up all the way to 33.6%. With a strong wind blowing out, I think the Pirates are in for a big day.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Pirates at Cardinals – 15 MPH wind blowing out
- Brewers at Reds – 14 MPH wind blowing out
- Diamondbacks at Braves – 10 MPH wind blowing out
- Rays at Angels – 10 MPH wind blowing out
Sneaky Pitchers of the Day:
- Dallas Keuchel vs. Seattle – The Mariners rank 3rd from the bottom in the AL versus left-handed starters with a .232 batting average. But more importantly, Keuchel just lost at home for the first time in over a calendar year and had a 1.46 home ERA in 2015. I still have confidence that he will get back on track and I think that his slow start will make him a low owned option. I like this as a GPP play.
- Jeremy Hellickson vs. Marlins – Hellickson’s ERA would lead you to believe that he is the same guy as he has been in the last few years, which is a replacement level pitcher. But if you look beneath the surface, that is not the case – Hellickson’s K/9 are up, his soft contact rate is up and his hard contact rate is down. His ERA is artificially high because of a huge HR/FB rate that should come down considerably. He has relied less on his fastball and changeup this year and has added a few pitches to the mix a bit more in using his slider, cutter and curve at an increased rate. I think Hellickson will end up having a pretty nice year and I like him at his price today.
- Jon Gray vs.Giants – Gray has a career 9.20 ERA at Coors and 2.77 career ERA on the road.
Sneaky Platoon Split Hitters:
- Mitch Moreland vs. Mike Pelfrey – Moreland has struggled against lefties but has a very nice .350 wOBA versus RHP.
- Stephen Piscotty vs. Jeff Locke – Piscotty has been mashing lefties this year with a .505 wOBA and 216 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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