Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 3
I have to admit – I did not predict Matt Wisler and Jeff Samardzija being the best pitchers of the day yesterday. Wisler specifically had really struggled with left-handed hitting throughout his career and the Mets left-handed bats were on fire coming into the game. Sometimes you have to tip your hat to the laws of variance, congratulate those who went contrarian yesterday and move on to the next slate.
Here are your quick hit thoughts for today:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Yan Gomes vs. Anibal Sanchez – 6/11 with 2 homers a double and a walk
- Miguel Cabrera vs. Corey Kluber – 20/38 with 5 homers 2 doubles and 2 walks
- Jose Bautista vs. Colby Lewis – 4/12 with 2 homers and 9 walks
- Justin Smoak vs. Colby Lewis – 7/16 with 2 homers 2 doubles and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Angels vs. Zach Davies – This will likely be heavily owned, but that doesn’t mean you should avoid it. Davies’ strength is usually inducing weak contact with ground balls, but his ground ball rate is down this year and his hard contact rate is way up to 35.4%. The Angels have been swinging well the last couple of days and that should continue against the slate’s worst pitcher.
- Orioles vs. CC Sabathia – Sabathia has not had a wOBA under .345 against RHB since 2012, when he was a much better pitcher than the 2016 model. The Orioles have a host of lefty killers including Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo. This could be a big day.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Giants at Reds – possibility of rain
- Braves at Mets – 11 MPH wind blowing in
- Tigers at Indians – possibility of rain
- Red Sox and White Sox – 16 MPH wind blowing out
Sneaky Pitchers of the Day:
- Carlos Rodon vs. Red Sox – The Red Sox have an abysmal .569 OPS vs. left-handed pitching this year after last night’s game against Jose Quintana. The sample size is still pretty small (140 ABs), but until the Sox show me they can hit lefties, I will target southpaw starters and hope for low ownership.
- Kris Medlen vs. Nationals – Medlen loves to face the Nats as he has a 2.45 ERA and 10.9 K/9 over his career against the gents from Washington. The latter number is Medlen’s highest against any opponent. I will be using this as a low owned contrarian play in a couple of lineups.
Sneaky Platoon Split Hitters:
- Brandon Guyer vs. Alex Wood – Guyer has a .390 wOBA and 162 wRC+ vs. southpaws this year, which lines up well with his career marks of .357 and 132.
- Justin Bour vs. Rubby de la Rosa – De la Rosa has struggled with left-handed bats in his career with a .374 wOBA against. Bour hits righties well – .273/.335/.490 over his career.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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