Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 1
It’s another Ace Day today! Usually because of April off-days, aces begin to start getting spread out on the baseball calendar right about now, but that has not been the case this season. We still have Kershaw, Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Sale, Scherzer and Price among top options all throwing on the same day. And the 2nd tier is fantastic as well with Stroman, Odorizzi, C Martinez, G Richards, Hamels and even Taijuan Walker and Rich Hill. Days like this are tricky and challenging – but let’s see if we can navigate through it and pick some winning lineups.
Here are your quick hit thoughts for today:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Evan Longoria vs. Marcus Stroman – 5/9 with a double, a homer and a walk
- Paul Goldschmidt vs. Chad Bettis – 4/9 with 2 doubles, a homer and a walk
- Eugenio Suarez vs. Jeff Locke – 5/9 with a homer and a walk
- Mike Aviles vs. Ricky Nolasco – 8/14 with a double and a homer
Stacks to Target:
- Marlins (especially LHB) vs. Wily Peralta – LHB have a career .354 wOBA against Peralta and he has been even less effective than normal this year with lefties smoking him at a .413 clip. Truth be told, Peralta has been awful against everyone this season, especially at home where he has an 8.16 ERA. The Marlins lefties (Dietrich, Bour, Yelich) are the safest stack of the day.
- Red Sox LHB vs. Nathan Eovaldi – This is the late game and Eovaldi has been pretty effective this season, so maybe this stack could be low owned. While Eovaldi’s surface numbers look good, lefties still have a .367 wOBA against him which is in line with his .340 career mark. The Sox boast a number of lefties who can hit including Ortiz, Shaw and the red-hot Jackie Bradley Jr.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Giants at Mets – possibility of rain. 10 MPH wind blowing in
- White Sox at Orioles – possibility of rain
- Tigers at Twins – 13 MPH wind blowing in
- Indians at Phillies – chance of rain
- Yankees at Red Sox – possibility of rain
Sneaky Pitchers of the Day:
- Max Scherzer vs. Cardinals – I think he will be low owned today with a tough match-up and a high price – and Scherzer’s relatively poor form to start the year. That having been said, his velocity is normal, his soft contact rate is high, his ground ball rate is high and his fly ball rate is low. All this to say, I think that Scherzer will be back to baseline soon. If Scherzer finds his mojo today, this could be a huge play.
- Rich Hill vs. Astros – Houston strikes out the most in MLB and Hill is 2nd in the American League in K/9 and 4th in total strikeouts on the young season. This is a boom or bust pick since Houston is tops in the AL in OPS versus left-handed pitching, but Hill could put up a huge number with low ownership.
Sneaky Platoon Split Hitters:
- Travis Shaw vs. Nathan Eovaldi – Shaw has become an extreme platoon split hitter, mashing righties with a .362/.443/.580 line but hitting a puny .118/.118/.176 against left-handed hurlers. As mentioned above, Eovaldi struggles with left-handed bats. Could be a nice day.
- Derek Dietrich vs. Wily Peralta – Dietrich hits righties well with a .443 wOBA and 173 wRC+ which is in line with his career .342 wOBA. Look for him to do some damage versus the atrocious Wily Peralta.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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