Week 14 NFL DraftKings Picks

It was a really high scoring week last week.  I had lineups of 170 and 175 points that did not cash in GPPs but was also able to get in the money with a couple of 200+ points lineups.

I always strive to do better, so let’s see if we can come up with the perfect picks this week.  Here we go:

QUARTERBACK

Luxury Items

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,600): Dalton has quietly had an MVP caliber season for the Cincinnati Bengals as he leads the league in passer rating and is 4th in the league in yards per attempt at 8.38.  The Steelers have been playing good ball, but they are 4th worst in the NFL in yards allowed per game with 276.  I think this game has sneaky shootout potential and Dalton should be the beneficiary.

Bang for Your Buck

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,000): After looking lost in his rookie year, Bortles has actually looked like a top flight quarterback this year, especially in fantasy.  Bortles is 3rd in the NFL in touchdown passes with 27 and ranks 7th in yards at 3,274.  He faces off against the Colts this week who allow the 3rd most passing yards per game in the NFL with 280.  I think Bortles’ good form will continue this week.

Discount Bin

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Bucs ($5,500): Any quarterback playing the Saints is a good start.  The Saints rank last in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ Defensive Efficiency ratings against the pass and are also last in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed, last in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed and 2nd to last in passing yards allowed per game.  On top of that, Winston has been red-hot, with 8 touchdowns over his last 3 games.  A lot of people might be on Winston this week, but he is a good play.

RUNNING BACK

Luxury Items

Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams ($6,800): The rookie sensation has actually slowed down a little bit recently with under 70 yards rushing in his last 4 games.  Nonetheless, I think Gurley turns it back on this week.  The Lions rank last in the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed with 16, and Gurley should see a lot of work in this one.  He is still 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 83.5 and the man has too much talent to be held down for much longer.

Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Bucs ($6,200): The Saints are terrible against the pass, but they don’t discriminate as they are also awful against the run ranking last in rushing yards allowed per game as well as last in rushing yards per attempt.  Doug Martin has been a force this year ranking 4th in yards per attempt, 2nd in rushing yards and 2nd in yards per game.  This could be a dominant performance.

Bang for your Buck

Shaun Draughn, San Francisco 49ers ($4,800): Draughn is literally getting all the carries for the 49ers since Carlos Hyde’s injury and has been over 18 touches and over 13.6 DraftKings points in all of his last 4 games.  This week, he and the 49ers have a great match-up against the Cleveland Browns who rank a meager 29th in Defensive Efficiency versus the run and allow the 2nd most rushing yards per game at 136.3.  I like Draughn for a big game.

Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions ($3,600): It has not yet translated into a big fantasy day, but after a really rough start to the year, Abdullah has started to turn his season around.  He has gone over 60 rushing yards in his last two games, the first two games of the year that he has done so.  He has also started to get the majority of carries for Detroit going into double digits the last three weeks.  The Rams allow the 10th most rushing yards per game, and I think Abdullah could go over 100 yards for the first time in his career.

Discount Bin

Matt Jones, Washington Redskins ($3,600): You never know which of the Redskins running backs will get the majority of the carries but Jones was the bell cow on Monday night.  The Redskins play against the abysmal Bears run defense who are last in the NFL in defensive efficiency versus the run and allow the 4th most yards per game at 127.9.  This could be a nice game for a nice price for Jones.

CJ Spiller, New Orleans Saints ($3,000): Mark Ingram is out for the year, meaning someone will have to step up for the Saints at running back.  Tim Hightower and CJ Spiller are the available options and Spiller is the one who got $9 million in guaranteed money in the offseason.  I think that Spiller gets 15-20 touches and he always has the chance to hit a home run with those.  At minimum price, you can’t do much better than that.

WIDE RECEIVER

Luxury Items

Odell Beckham, Jr., New York Giants ($9,100): Who ranks in dead last in defensive efficiency against #1 receivers?  That would be your Miami Dolphins.  Which #1 receiver do the Dolphins face this week?  That would be Odell Beckham, Jr., perhaps the top receiver in the league.  For those who haven’t been watching football, Beckham has been over 100 yards in his last 5 games, and is 4th in the league in receiving yards and tied for 3rd in receiving touchdowns.  He’ll be in at least 75% of my lineups this week.

Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars ($8,000): My biggest unforced error of last week was not putting Allen Robinson in any of my lineups.  I won’t make that mistake this week.  Much like his QB Bortles, Robinson has emerged as one of the top fantasy players at his position, ranking 5th in receiving yards and 2nd in receiving touchdowns.  The Colts let up a lot of passing yards per game and Robinson should be the beneficiary.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,900): As I have already outlined, the Steelers allow a lot of passing yards per game.  Moreover, A.J. Green has traditionally had a lot of success against Pittsburgh, including earlier this year when he had 11 catches for 118 yards and a TD against the Steelers.  In his last home game against Pittsburgh (in week 13 last year), Green had 11 catches for 224 yards and a touchdown. Green looked good last week and usually looks good against the Steelers.  Should be another nice game.

Bang for your Buck

Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos ($6,800): This is too good a price to pass up for Thomas.  While Thomas has not been quite as dynamic as he has been in years past (due in part to poor quarterbacking), he still ranks 3rd in the NFL in targets, 9th in receiving yards and 6th in receptions.  Oakland allows the 5th most passing yards per game at 271 and Thomas should have some success this weekend.

Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins ($6,300): The Giants pass defense is not so great, ranking last in the league in yards allowed per game at 315, and Landry is a solid receiver who usually gets a lot of targets.  While he struggled last week, let’s not forget that he went for 13 catches and 165 yards two weeks ago.  And, while I am not usually one for narratives, I have a feeling that the Dolphins will package some plays for him so he won’t be completely upstaged by his college teammate and close friend Odell Beckham, Jr. This could be a showcase game for Landry.

Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills ($6,100): Watkins has gotten hot, going over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown in each of his last two games.  Now he matches up with the Philadelphia Eagles who rank 29th in defensive efficiency against #1 receivers.  Watkins should keep his run of good play going against Philly this week.

Discount Bin

Desean Jackson, Washington Redskins ($4,800): Jackson may have had the bonehead play of the week on his punt return, but he has been pretty effective as a receiver in the last little while.  In his last 3 games, Jackson has gone over 65 yards in each and scored in each.  The Bears have a pretty good pass defense, but this is a nice value price for Jackson.

Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Bucs ($4,500): Take advantage of the cheapness of Jackson against the terrible Saints defense.  I have already given you all the numbers outlining how bad the Saints are.  Jackson has started to come alive as of late, he has gone over 56 yards in each of his last 3 games and increased his yardage in each, with 87 yards receiving last week.  Jackson is a good bet to go over 100 yards and score against the Saints.

Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals ($3,800): Great value here for a receiver who has gone for over 100 yards in 3 of his last 4 games and scored 5 touchdowns in his last 6 games.  Minnesota allowed two receivers to go for over 90 yards last game.  Floyd could have some more success this week.

TIGHT END

Luxury Item 

Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($6,900): Olsen is the most consistent tight end in the league, especially since Rob Gronkowski went down.  Olsen has had 5+ targets every week since week 2 and 54+ yards receiving every week since week 4.  Olsen has been the focal point of the explosive Panthers offense and that should remain the same this week.

Bang for your Buck

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,700): The Chargers struggle against the tight end ranking next to last in defensive efficiency against the big guys.  While Kelce hasn’t been as explosive as expected this year, he is still a pretty safe bet for 50 yards, and in this favorable match-up, he should go for 75+ and a score.

Discount Bin

Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Bucs ($2,700): How many ways can I say that the Saints are a bad defense?  Well, did you know that they also rank dead last in defensive efficiency versus the tight end.  Sefarian-Jenkins is back from injury and is cheap.  I like this flyer play at this price.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

 Bang for your buck

Seattle Seahawks ($3,500) vs. Ravens: The Ravens are either starting pick 6 machine Matt Schaub or potentially Jimmy Clausen against the explosive Seahawks D.  If there was ever a week to pay up for a defense, this might be it.

San Francisco 49ers ($2,100) vs. Browns: If you are looking for a really cheap defense, the 49ers play against Johnny Football and the Browns who should be good for a couple of turnovers.  The 49ers defense aren’t world beaters, but they should not hurt you this week.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @AssemblyNeil

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.