1 Comment

2016 Outfield Dynasty/Keeper Rankings (Top 60)

Rank 2015 Player Zak Will Kevin Paul Ron Jim
31 31 Kole Calhoun 34 45 19 39 29 24
32 N/R Michael Conforto 27 39 8 38 36 52
33 15 Hunter Pence 50 34 36 37 32 22
34 28 Wil Myers 40 31 35 28 48 40
35 13 Jacoby Ellsbury 33 27 56 35 33 43
36 52 Brett Gardner 35 36 51 36 34 36
37 27 Alex Gordon 51 32 37 41 41 44
38 50 Adam Eaton 31 52 53 40 35 39
39 38 Shin-Soo Choo 46 46 29 42 38 50
40 39 Rusney Castillo 41 40 N/R 43 43 33
41 25 Jay Bruce 48 33 49 56 37 45
42 N/R Randal Grichuk 38 53 32 54 52 47
43 59 Dexter Fowler 47 49 48 31 39 N/R
44 N/R Evan Gattis 54 47 57 55 40 35
45 N/R Jackie Bradley Jr N/R N/R 34 34 N/R 37
45 46 Khris Davis 53 N/R 40 49 42 51
47 N/R Steven Souza 44 48 41 48 55 N/R
47 N/R David Peralta 42 50 28 51 N/R N/R
49 37 Mark Trumbo N/R 43 54 53 56 34
50 N/R Nomar Mazara N/R 30 N/R 33 N/R 48
51 29 Marcell Ozuna 39 44 N/R 45 57 57
52 36 Aaron Judge 43 42 N/R 50 N/R 46
53 N/R Stephen Piscotty 30 N/R 46 N/R 51 58
54 N/R Ender Inciarte 37 N/R 55 N/R N/R 32
54 40 Ben Revere 59 57 38 N/R 45 55
56 N/R Michael Taylor 45 N/R N/R 60 50 38
57 N/R Curtis Granderson 52 N/R N/R 47 54 42
58 N/R Josh Reddick 49 N/R 52 N/R 46 54
59 N/R Dalton Pompey N/R 37 N/R 44 N/R N/R
60 N/R Kevin Pillar N/R 54 50 N/R 58 56
Page 1: Players 1 through 30

31. Kole Calhoun – Angels

  • Will: In all honesty I love Kole, but somehow thought my ranking would be aggressive. I could probably lean higher on the Kole train.
  • Ron: If the Angels fail to land a lefty power bat this winter I could see them targeting a top of the order bat in free agency, making Calhoun a fixture in the middle of the Halo’s lineup. In that scenario I like him to be a steady threat to produce a 75/25/90/5/.260 line.

32. Michael Conforto – Mets

  • Kevin: I wrote an article describing my fascination with Conforto which you can Read HERE.
  • Jim: I probably ranked Conforto too low, but his limited minor league track record (520 at bats) leave a lot of questions.  He’s young (23 in March), shows decent pop and the ability to hit for average.  Given his age and inexperience though, I question how he will react when pitchers stop feeding him fastballs and he has to adjust.  There’s talent and power, but the inexperience leave me with questions.

33. Hunter Pence – Giants

  • Zak: I’m looking over his numbers and Pence has been a consistent and valuable player for a long time. He may be useful in 2016, but as he gets up there in age I’d rather take my chances on younger players who can break out in a dynasty league.
  • Paul: A big drop for Pence this year as he gets a year older and finally showed a kink in his armor after 7 straight years with 155 games played.

34. Wil Myers – Padres

  • Paul: Myers had 16 extra base hits in his first 136 at bats before a wrist injury put a stop to what could have been a breakout for the young outfielder. Still just 24 years old, that break out is coming, and I’m hoping it’s in 2016.
  • Zak: I thought I would be higher than the group on Myers, but it looks like I was wrong. I guess I am more worried about his health than most. But I am not concerned about his ability. He looked like the real deal when he was in action last year and some modest gains in plate discipline suggest better days are ahead.

35. Jacoby Ellsbury – Yankees

  • Will: Still young-ish, with speed, and while power may not be “great” I still love that short porch while with the Pinstripes.
  • Jim: Even at age 32, Ellsbury is still capable of stealing 30 or more bases, and hitting leadoff for the Yankees means 80 or more runs.  Unfortunately he is an injury risk.  Ellsbury is a decent player to own as a fourth outfielder who could pay off when healthy, but make sure you have a back up option.

36. Brett Gardner – Yankees

  • Kevin: Okay power has appeared, but a drop in stolen bases and batting average limits his value.
  • Ron: Brett Gardner has adapted nicely to the way his skill set has changed with age, though he rarely gets the respect he deserves on draft day. I would bet on Gardner to continue to adapt well to his age that will see him take the field at 32 years old to start the 2016 season. 

37. Alex Gordon – Royals

  • Ron: What we have here is simply a player who is a better real baseball player than a fantasy asset. Let someone else pay for the name value tied to Alex Gordon.
  • Will: Gordon is just a solid hitter and (barring an injury) should remain that way for years to come.

38. Adam Eaton – White Sox

  • Kevin: I can’t buy into the power surge. His value was supposed to be in his wheels, but he hasn’t even reached 20 stolen bases yet. A .290/5/25 season is more likely than a 2015 repeat.
  • Zak: I am a believer in Eaton long-term and wrote about his future value the other day.

39. Shin-Soo Choo – Rangers

  • Paul: A 1.016 OPS in the second half saved Choo’s season and likely his spot among the top 60 outfielders for Dynasty Leagues. There’s still a little power, and with his strong on-base skills, he’ll score a good number of runs moving forward. 
  • Jim: With the speed all but gone, Choo is just another guy who can hit .275 and hit 20 home runs.  That’s not bad, but it is when you’re a soon to be 34-year-old in a league full of younger guys with upside who can do the same thing.

40. Rusney Castillo -Red Sox

  • Kevin: He added muscle, but a 63% GB% means no chance of realizing power. This is one Cuban fever you don’t want to contract.
  • Jim: Castillo flashed his ability at times in 2015, and I still believe he can be a 15/15/.280 guy, but if I don’t see any improvements in 2016 I’m stepping off the train.

41. Jay Bruce – Reds

  • Jim: Bruce is only a few years removed from hitting 30+ homers, close to 100 RBIs and a batting average in the acceptable range.  I still believe he has a few of those years left in the tank, but even his numbers from 2015 would be good enough for a fourth outfielder in a dynasty league.
  • Paul: When 26 home runs and a .226 average is considered a bounce back season, I think it’s time to face reality. Bruce is alright as a 4th outfielder, but the days of 30 home runs with a .260 average are a thing of the past. I hate average killers, and Bruce hasn’t hit even .265 in consecutive months since 2013.
  • James Krueger wrote a profile on Bruce this week which you can Read HERE.

42. Randal Grichuk – Cardinals

  • Zak: I don’t expect a repeat power-wise, but his all-around game and place in the organization make him a tantalizing dynasty target.
  • Ron: The fact that Grichuk struck out nearly a third of the time is covered up nicely by the unsustainable .365 BABIP he carried in 2015. Still, the power upside is real, and there’s a chance he chips in 5-10 stolen bases as well. I believe we will see the BABIP fall back to Earth in coming seasons, but that Grichuk will offset that inevitability by cutting down on his frequency of striking out. 

43. Dexter Fowler – f/a

  • Paul: I love high OBP guys because that skill doesn’t tend to diminish like others. With speed and the ability to walk 80 plus times at the top of the order, Fowler will continue to have value scoring a ton of runs and stealing bases. Last year was the first time he got more than 500 AB in his career and he showed what he was capable of.
  • Jim: Fowler barely cracked our dynasty rankings last year, and I’m not about to bump up the  soon to be 30-year-old after one good season.  He couldn’t make a name for himself after six years hitting in Colorado; what does that tell you? Don’t believe the hype – oh, and sell him if you own him.

44. Evan Gattis – Astros

  • Ron: Evan Gattis is likely to lose his OF eligibility after the 2016 season which will make him much less appealing as a guy who can only fill a DH/U spot in fantasy lineups.
  • Zak: As a catcher, Gattis was worth your high pick. As an outfielder, not so much. He is a safe bet for power, but he has hit his ceiling and presents more risk than you should be willing to tolerate from someone whose contributions are limited.

45. Jackie Bradley Jr. – Red Sox

  • Will: I am a Red Sox fan, born and bred, so I follow their prospects more than most, and JBJ just doesn’t read as a valuable fantasy player long-term.
  • Kevin: The contact rate is worrisome, but he already made an adjustment in 2015 and he has a decent power/speed combination. It’s do or die time for him, at least in Boston.

45. Khris Davis – Brewers

  • Ron: If it wasn’t for a strong finish to the 2015 season, it would be much more difficult to stick up for “the other” Khris Davis. Still, he did manage to show nice power upside and could reach his ceiling of 30 homers and a .250 average a couple times in the next five seasons.
  • Jim: Krush had 27 home runs in 2015, but 19 of them came in a 2 month span.  He can’t hit lefties and his average against righties and month to month is unreliable.  I ranked him because I have a little hope he turns things around, but I see a lot of Mark Reynolds similarities – and that’s scary.

47. Steven Souza – Rays

  • Zak: The hype train got a little out of hand last year, but this year the price is more palatable. Just know what you are getting into: A good pop/speed combo, but a big batting average risk that may cause him to ride the pine from time to time.
  • Will: Really just kind of riding the hype train here, but I think Souza has some punch, which in turn could lead to some decent fantasy value going forward.

47. David Peralta – Diamondbacks

  • Kevin: The batting average was luck driven, but he has potential for 20-25 homers with 10-15 steals over a full season, and he should still hit over .280.
  • Paul: Peralta was great last year and will likely be a sleeper for many heading in to 2016. The problem is that without full-time at bats, the counting stats won’t get any better. Can’t he play every day? Sure, if he wasn’t a career .224 hitter with a 26% K rate vs LHP. 

49. Mark Trumbo – Mariners

  • Jim: His flyball distance over the past 5 years has been between 291 and 296 feet.  Trumbo is capable of hitting 30+ home runs, and he now has Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano as mentors.  He’ll never be a batting average guy, but I do like him for homers, RBIs and decent run production.
  • Kevin: He should be able to repeat 2015, with the potential for more HR.

50. Nomar Mazara – Rangers

  • Paul: When 20-year-olds dominate AA and then hit .358 over the final 20 games in AAA, it’s time to take notice. Actually it’s too late to notice then, but he needs to be recognized as one of the game’s next big talents. He may only get a cup of coffee in 2016, but it’ll be enough to make me give up my no-caffeine policy.
  • Will: Maybe I am out on a limb here, but I am buying the potential bat speed and power; although it could be a couple of seasons before we see it at the major league level.

51. Marcell Ozuna – Marlins

  • Ron: This is perhaps the best buy-low opportunity in the outfield for a rebuilding dynasty team. Ask an owner to throw in Ozuna on the back-end of a bigger dynasty trade and you might land a sneaky 25 homers a year guy for the next five years.
  • Zak: He was a big flop last year, but it’s way too soon to write off Ozuna. He hit more line drives last year, he makes hard contact, and had an unlucky HR/FB% which suggests a rebound to 20 home runs is doable.

52. Aaron Judge – Yankees

  • Paul: Judge has ridiculous power built-in to his 6′-7″, 275 lb frame. He didn’t tear up AAA last year, but should get most of 2016 to make adjustments there. He has a decent approach, but as most players his size, he strikes out too much. When it comes to power though, he’s not only the Judge; he’s the jury and executioner.
  • Will: He’s still coming into his power so don’t be quick to, um, well…judge. In a year and a half you’ll be on board with me.

53. Stephen Piscotty – Cardinals

  • Zak: My “deep analysis“: Everything works out for the Cardinals, so Piscotty will exceed expectations by miles – If you followed this advice more often you’d probably be in better shape than you are in most leagues. He probably won’t hit .300, but the power is legit and the batting eye will help keep his floor higher than most inexperienced players.
  • Ron: While Grichuk packs more punch in his bat, it is Piscotty who displays the better approach in the Cardinal’s lineup. Piscotty feels like he could develop into a right hand hitting poor man’s version of Alex Gordon.

54. Ender Inciarte – Diamondbacks: Trade to Atlanta

  • Kevin: Good speed and high contact create a high batting average floor. Respect the batting average. Improved BB% in second half could result in a .300, 20 SB season for 2016.
  • Jim: I needed more than a few words to describe Inciarte; you can read more about him HERE.

54. Ben Revere – Blue Jays: Traded to Nationals

  • Will: Benny has speed and that can do some things. Add possible playing time in a good offense? Well, you could do worse.
  • Kevin: Consistently high batting average is a rarity these days, and 30+ stolen bases is becoming just as rare. He also contributes in runs. Those leaving him off their rankings are losing out.

56. Michael Taylor – Nationals

  • Zak: Instead of a steady veteran or a slow guy with power, I like to shoot for toolsy athlete types in the fifth outfielder spot. So needless to say I kind of like Taylor. He was dynamite for stretches last season, I just wish he could find some plate discipline and put it all together for longer periods of time. Striking out as much as he does, I can’t see it happening.
  • Paul: Taylor’s debut went about as well as expected, with 14 HR, 16 SB and a .229 AVG. He sat for half of April and May, finishing with just 472 at bats, so there is that 20/20 potential he is projected for. The strikeouts and poor average limit his overall ceiling, but a 20/20 outfielder that you can find at the end of your draft is okay by me.

57. Curtis Granderson – Mets

  • Jim:  The Grandyman will give you a little bit of everything along with a batting average that won’t kill you (most years).  I can see another 2 or 3 years of solid production before he falls off the cliff.
  • Ron: Swing changes have brought Granderson back to fantasy relevancy. Now he is in a race against time as a player who will take the field at 35 years old to begin the 2016 season.

58. Josh Reddick – A’s

  • Zak: Last year he provided power (though not to 2012 heights), a little bit of speed, and a lower strikeout rate. The improved plate discipline seems to be the result of a change in approach so he’s not as risky in average as you might be led to believe from looking at his career numbers. All in all, a good player who might be undervalued.
  • Jim: He’s an interesting player who can hit for power and is capable of hitting for average; now if he could only do both in the same season.  Reddick will show flashes at times, and he has a career year in him waiting to burst out, but overall he is unreliable and best suited for a bench/backup role for fantasy teams.

59. Dalton Pompey – Blue Jays

  • Will: To me, all Pompey needs right now is plate appearances, and I feel like those are on the horizon so watch out!
  • Paul: Pompey was lousy in his brief appearance with the Jays this year. To keep it in perspective though, had he ended up with 129 career at bats instead of 133, we’d be ranking him among the brightest outfield prospects on the horizon. He’s got plenty of speed, on base skills and should develop double-digit power.

60. Kevin Pillar – Blue Jays

  • Kevin: There are a lot of outfielders who may get 20-25 stolen bases with a .270 batting average. Pillar has 10-15 home run capability with a higher contact rate than most. His defense will also keep him in the lineup. 2015 can be repeated, with perhaps a higher average.
  • Ron: A year ago we all would have been asking, Kevin Pillar who? First it was his fearless defense that brought Pillar to our attention, but then he started to show some decent consistency at the plate as well. His first and second half performances from 2015 were remarkably consistent and add credibility to Pillar’s game.

 

So who was ranked in the top 60 that didn’t make the final list?  Both Avisail Garcia and Cameron Maybin received three rankings, but neither of them were in the top 40 suggesting they are both just bench/backup options. 

A number of player received rankings on two lists.  Bradley Zimmer and Mikie Mahtook have yet to make their major league debut, but are both worthy stashes for their future potential.  New comers Billy Burns and Eddie Rosario each showed some promise as did Kevin Kiermaier in his first full season; all three could move up with improvements.  Veteran Denard Span dropped out of the top 60 due to an off-year and age, but he is a worthy starter when healthy.  Finally there’s Gerardo Parra who put together a fine season, but there are questions about his future considering he has been a part-time player for most of his career. 

The final group of players were only ranked on one list, but that does not mean there isn’t value here.  Domingo Santana, Josh Bell, Enrique Hernandez, Austin Meadows and Lewis Brinson are all potential future talents.  Alex Guerrero, Delino DeShields, Anthony Gose and Odubel Herrera made an impression in 2015 so a step forward in 2016 isn’t out of the question.  Aaron Hicks and Chris Colabello each took a step forward in their third year while Oswaldo Arcia took a step back.  Anything can happen here so they are worth monitoring.  Finally we have the two veterans of the group: Colby Rasmus and Andre Ethier.  Overall an interesting group of players, and like I said there can be some value here. 

A number of veterans who were ranked last year didn’t even get a mention: Matt Holliday, Austin Jackson, Melky Cabrera, Carl Crawford, Desmond Jennings, Nori Aoki, Jayson Werth, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rios.  Each may have a good season left in them and could make for a nice one year rental.  As for prospects that did not get ranked, Paul Hartman and Andy Germani will be rolling out our prospect rankings beginning in January.

That wraps up our Outfield rankings. Tomorrow begins Starting Pitcher coverage which will last for 2 weeks and wrap up on December 6th with our top 75 Starters.

Page 1: Players 1 through 30

 

Keeper/Dynasty Rankings
CatcherFirst BaseSecond BaseThird BaseShortstopStarting PitcherRelieversTop 200

 

Fantasy Rundown BannerStill need more rankings, head on over to Fantasy Rundown where Goose will be compiling rankings for the 2016 season as well as prospect rankings and the best baseball links available this off-season.

Related Posts

The following two tabs change content below.
The Fantasy Assembly Team
A combined effort of the greatest fantasy sports minds money can buy. Maybe that is an exaggeration..... but it sounds good.
The Fantasy Assembly Team

Latest posts by The Fantasy Assembly Team (see all)

One comment on “2016 Outfield Dynasty/Keeper Rankings (Top 60)

  1. is oWAR used to find a players value to his team or across the league? if it measures wins above replacement does that mean “Player X is this much better than his back up” or how much better than the field (at his position) he is?

    If Player A has a 3.1 oWAR and Player B has a 2.7 oWAR is Player A the undisputed better fantasy option?

Comments are closed.