It was an honor to share DFS space with Andrew “LouiesCards” Cook of RotoGrinders.com last week. I think that I am a good resource for DFS tips, but the guys over at RotoGrinders are on point.
Last week was another nice one for me as I had many big hits and had some pretty nice cashes last week. Let’s see if we can keep it up this week.
Don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil if you have any questions.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($7,500): Tom Brady is pick 1B in this spot as he has the 2nd most passing yards per game and faces off against the New York Giants who give up the 2nd most pass yards per game. But pick 1A is Aaron Rodgers, who is $1,100 cheaper than Brady and gets to face the Lions’ defense who are 30th in defensive efficiency against the pass as per the excellent website Football Outsiders. Rodgers and Brady will probably both be up over 30 points, but Rodgers gives you more return on your investment at a lower price.
Bang for Your Buck
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,600): Bortles was something of a joke last year in both real and fantasy football, but he has made huge strides in his sophomore season. In fact, he is 7th in DraftKings points per game among quarterbacks this year. The Ravens are abysmal against the pass, giving up the 4th most passing yards in the NFL. I see another nice game for Bortles.
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins ($5,200): The New Orleans Saints are terrible at pass defense. They are 3rd to last in passing yards allowed per game and dead last in defensive efficiency versus the pass. Cousins is no superstar, but he has thrown at least a touchdown in every game this season, and in his last game against a bottom 8 pass defense he put up 34.18 DraftKings points.
Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams ($7,300): Gurley is a beast and is the only running back who is averaging over 100 rushing yards per game this season. He gets a sweetheart match-up against the Bears who rank 31st in the NFL in defensive efficiency against the run. The Rams will run early and often and Gurley should put up huge numbers.
DeAngelo Williams, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,500): As always, pay attention to the practice reports and game day inactives as Williams has a foot boo-boo. But if DeAngelo plays, he should be in your lineups. Williams had 225 total yards against the Raiders last week and they are actually respectable against the run. The Browns rank an atrocious 30th in defensive efficiency versus the run. With Ben Roethlisberger out, Williams should dominate.
Bang for your Buck
James Starks, Green Bay Packers ($4,900): Mike McCarthy made a surprising announcement this week that James Starks has earned the lead running back role in Green Bay at this point. This is great news for him as he gets to face the inept Lions defense this week who rank an embarrassing 29th in defensive efficiency against the run. Eddie Lacy will still likely get some play and Aaron Rodgers may throw a lot, but I think Green Bay will be out for blood after losing 2 in a row and there will be plenty of fantasy points to go around.
Shane Vereen, New York Giants ($4,300): Vereen is playing against his old team and that may fire him up. And the Patriots only rank a mediocre 21st against the pass against running backs. The Patriots will likely double cover Odell Beckham, Jr. meaning plenty of looks for Vereen who could catch 7-8 balls against his former squad.
Joique Bell, Detroit Lions ($3,200): Bell finally looked healthy last game and looks to have regained the top dog role in the Detroit backfield. Green Bay has been very average against the run, ranking 8th from the bottom in yards per attempt allowed at 4.5. I don’t actually think that Bell will have a huge game, but you could get return on your investment from him for this price, especially as a contrarian play in GPPs.
James White, New England Patriots ($3,000): Dion Lewis’ injury was very sad as he was a dynamic player for the Patriots and a nice rags to riches story. But Lewis’ loss is likely White’s gain, who should pick up much of the Patriots’ passing down back slack. I expect the Patriots to pass a lot as the Giants’ pass rush has struggled and they have given up a ton of passing yards. White should have a good game and will find himself in more than one of my lineups.
Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos ($7,400): In Thomas’ last 7 games against Kansas City he has had either 100 yards, a touchdown or both in each game, including having 8 catches for 116 yards against KC earlier this year. Thomas had his quietest game of the season last week and he may not be a popular play. Take advantage and get him in your lineups.
Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers ($6,700): I love me some Packers today. After a rough couple of games, Cobb bounced back last game with 99 yards and a touchdown. The Lions’ pass defense is among the worst in the NFL and Cobb should be able to break free with a couple of big plays.
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,700): Robinson has been one of the most consistent receivers in the NFL this season as he has surpassed 80 yards receiving 5 times, and is riding a 4 game streak where he has had more than 20 DraftKings points. Baltimore’s pass defense has struggled this year, and I don’t think they will have an answer for Big Al.
Bang for your Buck
Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,200): Matthews is a solid 15th in the NFL in targets and had his best game of the season last week as he had 9 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins have struggled mightily against #1 receivers, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency versus top wideouts. Matthews is poised to do some damage again.
Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders ($5,800): This is a great price for a guy who is 12th in the league in targets, including having 12 targets in each of his last two games. Moreover, Crabtree has produced with his targets, going over 100 yards and having at least a touchdown in each of his last two games as well. Amari Cooper hurt himself in practice and Latavius Murray might miss this game against the Vikings. It could be the Crabtree and Cooper show. Get your tickets here.
Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings ($5,100): You are still getting a phenomenal price for a guy who ranks 7th in the NFL in yards per game. The Raiders give up the most passing yards in the NFL with 315 net passing yards against per game. Diggs is the main target of the Minnesota passing offense and will have an opportunity for a nice game.
Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens ($4,500): The Ravens will have to throw to someone and Aiken is their defacto #1 receiver after Steve Smith Sr. is out for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. The Jaguars are only 29th in defensive efficiency against the pass. Look for a nice game from Aiken.
Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots ($4,100): LaFell was a top 25 wide receiver last year and is starting to get back in the groove this year. He went for over 100 yards last week (hat tip to me for calling that one) and I expect him to continue to put together solid performances. The Giants rank 26th in defensive efficiency versus #2 receivers. The Patriots exploit their opponents’ weaknesses and this seems like the obvious one for the Giants. LaFell will be one of my favorites this week.
Cole Beasley, Dallas Cowboys ($3,000): One of the worst strategies in DFS or season-long strategy is to chase points. If someone had a career game last week, that doesn’t mean you need to slot him in your lineup the next week. That having been said, Matt Cassell had his best season throwing to Wes Welker in the slot in 2008, and he gets another start this week after developing some chemistry with Cole Beasley. Beasley is a minimum price player and he will get some looks after his great outing last week. Look for 6 catches and 60 yards, which would be fantastic at this price.
Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots ($8,000): This is one of those weeks where you can pay for Gronk. The Giants rank 25th in defensive efficiency against tight ends, and this Gronkowski fellow is the best tight end in the NFL. Gronk was quiet last game, but I think it’s a multiple touchdown outing this time around.
Bang for your Buck
Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins ($4,600): I love this play. Reed has gone over 80 yards or had a touchdown (or both) in every game that he has appeared in this year and he gets to hone his craft against the Saints defense which is dead last in defensive efficiency against the tight end. Reed could (and really should) score more than 20 points this week.
Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions ($3,300): The Packers actually defend the tight-end quite nicely, but Ebron is a really nice talent and this is a good price for him. Calvin Johnson may still be slowed with his ankle injury, meaning more opportunities for Ebron. Ebron has gone for double-digit fantasy points on DraftKings in every game but 2 this year. This is the best talent for a bargain basement price.
Bang for your buck
St. Louis Rams ($3,600) vs. Bears: The Rams have a top 5 defense in the league and Jay Cutler, while playing well, is turnover prone. Look for another solid outing from this solid defense.
Oakland Raiders ($2,100) vs. Vikings: If you are looking for a punt play, the Raiders look like a good one. The Vikings may be suiting up journeyman Shaun Hill at quarterback and struggle to score in the best of times. This likely won’t be a huge score, but could be 8-10 points for practically no money.
For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @AssemblyNeil
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