70 Comments

Buy Low/Sell High: Week 6

Buy Low Sell High LogoThis weeks buy low/sell high features a lot of Packers with how the offense has performed the past two weeks.

When entering the trade market you need to decide if what you are seeing, reading, researching, etc. is a trend or an anomaly. I think it is safe to say no one thinks the Packers offense is done, but it isn’t always that easy to see what happened.

Simply checking box scores might not tell you everything you need to know. Drew Brees for example was given seven extra points because his kicker missed an easy field goal that made the game go into overtime. The box score says 22 points, but he was a missed kick away from 15.

Determining trends vs anomalies will help you a lot in the trade market.

If you have any questions about any of these players, any trade offers you have received or are thinking about offering ask in the comment section below or on Twitter @TheSportsGuy40.

BUY LOW

QB – Aaron Rodgers – Packers

Everyone knows what he can do. He has had back-to-back “down” weeks where he only got 15 and 16 points. There is a chance the Rodgers owner is panicking after back-to-back sub par weeks. If he is worried, pounce immediately Rodgers will be fine. If you pair a good quarterback with a solid running back performer you might be able to land Rodgers.

Potential buy low offer: Joseph Randle and Phillip Rivers for Rodgers

RB – Eddie Lacy – Packers

The whole Packers offense struggled against the Rams. Lacy has only scored double digits once and that was back in week one against the Bears. This week was the first that he struggled in terms of yards per carry. He is in one of the best offenses in the NFL and should have a lot of chances throughout the season to kill the clock and get goal line carries. Trade a borderline top 15 receiver and you might be able to get Lacy from a fed up owner.

Potential buy low offer: Emmanual Sanders for Lacy

WR – Donte Moncrief – Colts

Moncrief performed well with Luck at quarterback and hasn’t put up great numbers since Luck went down with an injury. Andre Johnson got his revenge game against Houston, I expect Moncrief to settle back into the number two receiver role and produce when Luck returns. Most teams should have Moncrief as a luxury they added early in the season. You could try to get him for a top 30 running back that has a good role in his offense.

Potential buy low offer: Isaiah Crowell for Moncrief

WR – Calvin Johnson – Lions

Receivers do not fall off a cliff like this, at least not normally. He isn’t the guy people were selecting in the top five a few years ago but he is better than what he has done to this point. I think the big issue is something is wrong with Matt Stafford and it is holding Johnson back. I expect Johnson to bounce back to a top 15 receiver, at the worst top 20. You could get him for a top 20 level running back.

Potential buy low offer: DeMarco Murray for Johnson

WR – Randall Cobb – Packers

Another Packer who has struggled in the past couple weeks Cobb is destined to bounce back. He is a big part of the offense that likes to pass a lot. Cobb is locked in with the elite group of receivers, not every week will be 100 yards and a touchdown.You could snag him for a high-end running back two.

Potential buy low offer: Cobb for Mark Ingram

From last week: I am still buying low on Andrew Luck, Latavius Murray and Travis Kelce. Arian Foster and John Brown saw an uptick in value although I am still buying them. Jordan Matthews I am no longer buying.

SELL HIGH

QB – Drew Brees – Saints

He isn’t the same Drew Brees and this isn’t the same Saints offense from the past few seasons. Brees accumulated most of his points in garbage time this week and his stat line was saved by the kicker missing an extra point that sent the game to overtime last week. Brees still has big name value and has put up decent enough points that he can be sold for a decent return. You should be able to a capable quarterback plus a solid second receiver in return.

Potential sell high offer: Brees for Allen Robinson and Eli Manning

RB – Doug Martin – Buccaneers

I don’t see too many cases where Martin will get 20 plus carries and they will throw under 20 passes. The typical game flow for the Buccaneers doesn’t favor Martin, it actually favors Charles Sims who gets most of the passing downs work. I think you can get a mid level second receiver from a team looking for a running back.

Potential sell high offer: Martin for T.Y. Hilton

RB – Devonta Freeman – Falcons

This is one that is tough to put in here because of the tear he has been on. He won’t continue to score like this every week, I think. I have gotten a lot of questions and seen a lot of trade where people are getting first round type talent that has actually been performing well this season. Based on what I have seen you can get a top 10 receiver.

Potential sell high offer: Freeman for A.J. Green

WR – Brandin Cooks – Saints

He finally had a big week this week. Like I said with Brees this isn’t the same Saints offense. His touchdown came with no time left on the clock with the Saints down 39-10. This isn’t Cooks turning his season around. If you have someone in your league who was high on Cooks preseason and sees this as a sign of a turnaround you could get a solid running back two in return.

Potential sell high offer: Cooks for Giovani Bernard

WR – Larry Fitzgerald – Cardinals

The Cardinals offense has a lot of weapons. Fitzgerald will lead that group most weeks but what he has done to this point in the season is the very high-end. He is more of a top 15 receiver than the top five he has been this season. You could get a high end running back for Fitzgerald.

Potential sell high offer: Fitzgerald for Eddie Lacy

From last week: I am still selling T.J. Yeldon, Jeremy Maclin and Jeremy Hill. Andy Dalton is really looking like a legitimate top quarterback option and should be a hold at this point.

BUY HIGH

WR – Allen Hurns – Jaguars

The Jaguars have a competent offense this season, I know it sounds weird. Hurns is in the middle of a hot stretch of games right now but I expect him to keep up a similar pace in this offense. The defense is still bad so this team will need to keep putting up points and airing it out on offense. Hurns could provide top 20 receiver value rest of season.

I would take him over: Jordan Matthews, Golden Tate, Terrance Williams

SELL LOW

TE – Jimmy Graham – Seahawks

They don’t look at him at all in the passing game. He had one big catch this week and it came with under a minute in the first half where the defense was playing prevent. His name carries more value than his stats at this point.

I would sell him for: Charles Clay, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert Martellus Bennett.

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.

70 comments on “Buy Low/Sell High: Week 6

  1. Hi there! I just found your site last week and I’m impressed so far. I also enjoyed the coincidence that I traded Keenan Allen for Gurley days before finding the same suggestion as a sell-high target (glad we’re on the same page!)

    This is my first fantasy season so I’m looking for some advice (14-team league, 0.25ppr & returns). Here is my team:

    QB Rodgers
    WR Robinson
    WR Cooks
    WR Moncrief
    RB Lacy
    RB Gurley
    TE Eifert
    FLEX Woodhead

    Bench: David Johnson, Helu, Dwayne Allen, Christine Michael, Marquess WIlson.

    Free agents include: Charles Johnson, White, Funchess, Floyd, Parker, Fleener, Tamme, Riddick…

    What do you think of my team? Is there a particular waiver wire move or trade target you’d be pushing for?

    • Glad you’re enjoying the site!

      Waiver wire wise there isn’t anything I would be jumping up and down to get. I like the idea of getting a Devante Parker and seeing how he performs after a bye week and coaching change but that is just a lottery ticket, similar to the one you already have in Michael.

      You have a great RB stable, especially for a 14 team league.

      Robinson as a number one receiver isn’t ideal but it isn’t a team killer. You have two top 10 running backs and a top two quarterback so it really isn’t a worry.

      If possible I would try to unload Cooks this week. The Saints could continue to be bad and get garbage time numbers but that isn’t something I want to bank on for the rest of season.

      Week to week I am fine with making a start or sit decision based on game flow but I don’t like banking on production for the rest of the season that might only come when the team is down 30.

      I see two options that you could explore.
      1. Use Cooks plus a bench player to upgrade at receiver. Buy a projected top 15 receiver low.

      2. Use Cooks to get 2 receivers. With the 14 team league what you have on your bench and what you listed on the wire I think you could use a receiver to get through the bye weeks. Maybe use Cooks to get a surprising performer like Ginn, Hurns, Benjamin plus someone like Crabtree or Marvin Jones. You could probably aim a little higher but that is what I would settle for if I couldn’t get something else done.

      For this week, and not sure how long, Dwayne Harris could be a useful waiver add in a league of your size. Beckham left with a hamstring injury, although he did return, there is not a lot out there about how serious it is right now. Rueben Randle also got hurt late in the game. Its a worthy flier for the next week or two.

      Nelson Agholor also got hurt so Josh Huff is worth a look in deeper leagues.

      A flier for week 7 and beyond is Brandon LaFell. He looks on track for a return from the PUP list and I want as many pieces of that Patriot offense as possible.

      • Do you like either of these options for Cooks?
        – Snead and LaFell.
        – Adams and Rishad Matthews

        What would it take to get Amari Cooper? Cooks and David Johnson?

      • Another option is Locket and Benjamin. That might be asking too much for Cooks since return yards count.

        • For the first options you listed I feel like you can get more. How is your scoring for return yards?

          • 15 yards per point.

          • Forgot to answer what you said about Cooper. If you can trade Cooks and Johnson to get him I would definitely do that.

            The Lockett and Benjamin deal I am not sure what to do. I have personally not played in many leagues that have done points for return yards so I am not sure how much that boosts Locketts value relative to the rest of the receivers.

            I checked what he has done this season and it looks like the return yards alone, not counting the TDs, boost his points per game by about 7-8 per week if my math was right. So I would assume he is averaging around 10-12 points per game or something like that. That is normally borderline top 10 in the leagues I play without return yards and not a lot of the better players return kicks so I would assume that carries a lot of value.

            Is he roughly in the top 15 in your scoring season to date? At face value I was thinking no way on that deal but that is probably something I would do after looking into it.

          • Benjamin is 3rd with 89 points. But 40 of those were all from week 2. Lockett is sitting at 21st.

          • Even without that big week Benjamin is averaging about 12 points per week. Where does 12 points per week land in regards to the current leaders in your league?

            He is a risky guy but the Browns have no run game and they will be passing a lot. I don’t expect 400 plus passing yards often but there will be a lot of passing.

            Lockett is probably a lock for about nine or so points per week if he is getting his return yards. He has been doing a little more in the passing game over the past two weeks as well.

            If I had to choose Benjamin or Cooks I would probably take Cooks by a hair but if you can get Lockett I think that would be a good deal for you. He would be a solid by week or injury replacement and right now you don’t really have a trustworthy receiver on your bench.

            If you can do it I think it is worth it. It doesn’t sound like an amazing trade on the surface but I think it is a deal to do. I don’t see Cooks as a top 20 receiver this season, closer to borderline top 30, and you might get two top 25 guys in return.

  2. How do u feel about Demaryius Thomas rt now? Buy low? had an offer of devonta freeman and allen robinson to get demaryius but am thinking thats paying too much now for demaryius??

    • I am not buying Demaryius right now. That offense is in disarray. I saw a stat that 80% of the Broncos points this year have come from the defense or kicker. That is insane.

      I do not doubt his talent but I can’t trust the offense and for what you have to give up to get him I would no do.

      A prime target to trade Freeman for, prior to his hamstring injury, was Beckham. If you are looking for a receiver I would trade him straight up for Julio, Brown, Green, Beckham as long as the hamstring is fine.

      After that it starts to get dicey on if I would do it or not. The Cobb, Hopkins, group I would probably still trade him for although I think you can get those guys for less, or at least realistically ask for something else back in return. Maybe Cobb plus a running back around number 20.

      Gronk could be a great target to go for as well.

    • I think is is okay to buy low on Demaryius, but what you are talking about here is not buying low.

      Freeman just posted nearly 197 total yards and a TD against one of the top run defenses in the league. The way the Falcons are using Freeman now, you can’t accept anything less than top 6 overall value in a deal for Freeman.

      Really though, aside from Bell, what RBs can you rank ahead of Freeman right now?

  3. LOVE this site!!! SO nice to have a fresh take on FF. Love that it’s not ESPN, CBS, etc. Please grade my team and suggest possible smart trades to improve it this week.

    12 Team STD (3-2 record) (waivers reset every week)

    QB: Carson Palmer, Sam Bradford
    WR: Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, James Jones, Allen Hurns
    RB: Le’Veon Bell, Danny Woodhead, Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, Karlos Williams
    TE: Greg Olsen, Owen Daniels
    DST: NYG (streaming)
    K: Stephen Gostkowski

    • You have a lot of depth at receiver but none of them are guys I would want to sell which is unfortunate.

      Brown and Johnson have low values right now and I see both bouncing back, Brown when Ben returns. Hilton should also see a bump when Luck comes back.

      Jones and Hurns are both great right now so I do not want to trade them but with the depth you have at receiver you might have to.

      I don’t have a problem with Woodhead as an RB 2, especially when you are so set everywhere else, but it is the one spot where you could upgrade.

      You could probably shop every one of your receivers this week to try to get an RB 2. You have five receivers anyone would be happy to start on a week to week basis.

      Are there any teams that you know of that you could target that are in need of a receiver?

      • Thank you for your analysis. It makes perfect sense. I’m trying to find a rb2 that would make sense. What about trading calvin and Woodhead for Mark Ingram and Jeremy Maclin? Would that be advisable?

        • I might not be the right guy to ask about a Mark Ingram deal but I wouldn’t do that. I don’t want to sell low on Calvin and I really don’t like Ingram. He hasn’t done much this season other than the touchdowns, and yes I know touchdowns count but they are so fluky.

          I would target a 1 for 1 for any of your receivers for a running back. I like James Jones a lot but he is probably at the point where his value is at the absolute peak. You could probably get more for Calvin or Brown but I would rather bet on them bouncing back to a higher level.

          I wouldn’t include Woodhead in a deal just because I would like to keep him as the number one bench back.

          Its tough to say which receiver I would trade. I don’t want to sell low on Brown, Calvin, or Hilton but I believe in what Hurns and Jones have done to this point in the season.

          Maybe see what Hurns can get you. I honestly might float out all of your receivers in the trade market and see what is the best deal you can get. The goal would be to do a simple 1 for 1 swap.

          • Ah I see, I haven’t followed Ingram much but the Ingram owner likes Abdullah, so what about a trade for Ingram if i include him with Woodhead? What is your take on Abdullah and Coleman for rest of season outlook? I mentioned selling calvin cuz I’m not sure what rb2 I could get that would be better than Woodhead without trading more talent than jones and hurns. What would be a good rb2 that is at a good value at this point? What is your take on K. Williams as a first bench guy? I was thinking he was a solid rb2. Thanks again for all your insight!

          • Abdullah has been all hype to this point in the season. I do think he has talent but he has had two chances to do something with Bell out and has fallen flat on his face. If you can get something for him to help your team I think it is worth it. He isn’t a terrible lottery ticket to have on the bench though.

            Here are some running backs that I like that I think are undervalued right now.

            LeGarrette Blount
            Giovani Bernard
            Chris Ivory
            Dion Lewis
            Shane Vereen – this is tied to the injury status of the Giants receivers

            For Coleman vs Abdullah I guess I would rather have Abdullah just because there is a clearer path to playing time.

            I am fine with Karlos Williams as an RB 2 but there is no knowing when he plays again and how long it is before McCoy is back.

            I would Do Abdullah and Woodhead for Ingram. I don’t like Ingram but I still think that is good value if you can get it.

  4. Thanks, this article clearly reflects my dilemma at wr. I need to move up this chart. Maybe you’ll be able to advise me on the little things that are not clear. I was worried about D. Murray and J. Randle, so I traded for Lacy this past week. Lost wr depth, but I like the way my team is set up.
    League setting : 12 team, . 5ppr, qb, 3wr, 2 rb, flex, k, def, and 6 bench.
    Qb : Dalton
    Wr : B. Marshall
    Wr : Watkins
    Wr : K. Wright
    Rb : L. Bell
    Rb : Lacy
    Te : Gates
    Flx : D. Murray
    Bench : Stafford, Hillman, Matthews, Duke Johnson, J. Randle, _ _ _.
    Waiver #6 : S. Johnson, Crowder, Barnidge

    Everyone can be for sale except B. Marshall, L. Bell, D. Murray, R. Matthews. Qb and te can be streamed along with def. So, please let me know what you think. Thank you.

    • You are definitely in need of a receiver. I wouldn’t want to rely on Watkins on a weekly basis.

      See if you can get someone to bite on Dalton’s hot start and get another qb in return who has been solid to this point but lower in the top 10. Try Dalton, Randle, Watkins for something like some combo like Rivers plus James Jones. You could also try to sell Jordan Matthews instead of Watkins if you can get someone to give you something legitimate. I have no problem with Wright as a third receiver.

      You can afford to trade away running back depth to sure up your receivers.

      Crowder would probably be my number 1 target for you on waivers. He has been great in leagues that reward points for catches.

      • Hi Andy. Well a team in my league is 1-4 and he’s been desimated by injury. His team: qb : wilson; wr: j.matthews, Jeffery, boldin, Crabtree, shorts; rb: Charles, Gurley, Crowell, Sankey dixon, mason, starks; te kelce. My team : qb: Dalton, Stafford; wr: B. Marshall, Watkins, k. Wright; rb: L. Bell, Lacy, D. Murray, J. Randle, Hillman, R. Matthews, Duke Johnson, d. Johnson (arz); te: Gates, Barnidge.
        So, how about targeting Gurley, Mason, starks and Jeffrey? Maybe D. Murray, R. Matthews, J . Randle. Appreciate the input.

        • If you can manage to swing that deal I would. It helps his team by giving him some depth to cover byes and injuries. Offer it up and see what he says. If he declines it we can try to figure out another offer that would work.

  5. I’m not sure why, but I could not reply to your last message directly. (see above)

    Thank you for the RB2 recommendations. Would you think James Jones straight up for any of those guys would be a good offer? I also noticed that Todd Gurley is on bye this week and his owner may want to trade. Would James Jones with Woodhead or Karlos Williams be a good trade offer? Do you like him as a back?

    I also see that Arian Foster is projected to have a few good weeks coming up due to his opponents. Would he be a good one to pick up and if so, what would be a good offer for him? The more I look at other teams.. i almost think i should be trading away my 2nd quarterback (bradford) and just pickup a QB on Palmer’s bye week (9).

    How do you feel about Demaryius Thomas – rest of season. The owner is not doing well and has told me he’s ready to trade “all” of his players. His roster is as follows:

    QB: M. Ryan
    RB: Jeremy Hill, Duke Johnson Jr., Andre Ellington, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Matt Jones
    WR: D. Thomas, Vincent Jackson, John Brown, Jarvis Landry, Travis Benjamin, Marques Colston
    TE: Zach Ertz

  6. Thanks for the response. The time and depth of analysis is appreciated. Here’s a couple of questions for you; D. Murray or Gurley the rest of the season? And thoughts on A. Jeffrey value and status going forward.

    • Now that Gurley is back it is definitely Gurley for me. He is a top 10 back. They really didn’t play the Packers that close that week and he still managed 30 carries.

      I would try to buy low but it is a risky bet. There is always a risk that he isn’t as close to being healthy as they make it seem. He could always reaggrevate the injury.

      If you can buy him for someone who you are not counting on I would do that, but I wouldn’t give up part of my team that I was relying on.

      I do think when he is healthy he is a good option, but it is really risky to trade for players when they are still hurt.

  7. I’m not sure why, but I could not reply to your last message directly. (see above)

    Thank you for the RB2 recommendations. Would you think James Jones straight up for any of those guys would be a good offer? I also noticed that Todd Gurley is on bye this week and his owner may want to trade. Would James Jones with Woodhead or Karlos Williams be a good trade offer? Do you like him as a back?

    I also see that Arian Foster is projected to have a few good weeks coming up due to his opponents. Would he be a good one to pick up and if so, what would be a good offer for him? The more I look at other teams.. i almost think i should be trading away my 2nd quarterback (bradford) and just pickup a QB on Palmer’s bye week (9).

    • I really like James Jones and I would like to keep him if possible but you obviously need a running back more than another receiver.

      I think you should be able to get any of those guys for Jones but it depends on the team you are trying to trade with and if they need a receiver or not.

      I would probably rank them
      Lewis
      Ivory
      Gio
      Blount

      I wouldn’t trade Jones for Vereen. I would want a lot more in return than just Vereen.

      Jones and Woodhead might net you Gurley if that owner is desperate for a guy not on a bye. Gurley is a top 10 back at this point. The only reason he wasn’t preseason is because he was coming off of a torn ACL.

      I would try to get Foster because of his talent more than his schedule, his schedule is just an added plus. There is no game outcome that takes Foster out of the game, he can do a ton of damage in the passing game.

      I would prefer Foster to Gurley but not by a ton.

      I personally never like holding two quarterbacks just because so much is out there week to week on the waiver wire. 95% of the time it is a position that on a week to week basis you can just grab a starter off the waiver wire.

      • Thank you. I currently have offers out there to trade Hurns for Lewis and to trade James Jones and Abdullah for Latavius Murray. Do you like L. Murray going forward? The Murray owner also has Gurley. Should i target him instead?

  8. They said they’re “not ready” to part with Gurley at this time. (tried James Jones, Woodhead, and Abdullah for Gurley) Should i retry by substituting T.Y Hilton for James Jones? One suggestion someone else had was trading Calvin Johnson for Gurley straight up. Would that be advisable for my lineup?

    They said they would do Latavius Murray for James Jones and Abdullah. Is he an upgrade over Woodhead? Should i bite on that instead? Thanks again!

    • Not surprised they want to keep Gurley.

      You could do Calvin for Gurley straight up. In a vacuum they are pretty equal, your receiver depth makes it a logical trade.

      I do like Murray is a slight upgrade over Woodhead but not enough of an upgrade that I would want to part with James Jones.

      What are your starting lineup requirements? I should have asked that a long time ago.

  9. Quarterback (QB) 1
    Running Back (RB) 2
    Wide Receiver (WR) 2
    Tight End (TE) 1
    Flex (RB/WR/TE) 1
    Team Defense/Special Teams (D/ST) 1
    Place Kicker (K) 1
    Bench (BE) 7

  10. Ok that was my assumption.

    You could probably get away with trading two of your receivers for an elite running back. Pair Calvin with Hurns and go for Peterson, or something like that.

    It still leaves you with three receivers and then you have two elite running backs.

    Worth noting that Hilton popped up on the injury report so that is something worth monitoring with that being a Sunday night game.

  11. Would you do that pair for Gurley too? Any backs other than Peterson?

  12. It depends on what receivers you are giving up.

    Peterson
    Foster
    Gurley
    Freeman
    Forte

    That list could be expanded some more. It just depends on the two receivers that you are giving up.

    • I don’t think the Gurley owner will budge. They want to trade L. Murray, for Jones and a RB.

      The Charles’ owner’s linup is as follows:

      QB Cam Newton, Winston
      RB: Lamar Miller, Arian Foster, Rawls, Jamaal Charles, Randle
      WR: Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, D. Adams, Hankerson

      He turned down Foster for Calvin Johnson and Hurns for Miller. I think he’s interested in moving Miller. I would like to trade for Foster if possible. What would you do?

      • I really wouldn’t want to do Jones plus a running back for Murray but if that is really the only deal that you can get done you might have to do it just to make your team better.

        You could try Hilton, Woodhead and Hurns for Foster. Possibly Calvin plus a bench running back.

        If you want Miller I wouldn’t give up anything more than Hurns.

        • Thank you for the reply. I’m a bit confused as to why you’re not too excited about Murray? Is there something in particular that doesn’t sit well? I see him as a top 5-10 runnning back on most rest-of-season lists. It’s looking like the Murray one is the only one i can get this week, and even that may not go through due to the last minute notice. They haven’t responded yet and there is a 2 day approval process.

          • I do like Murray. I had him as a buy low last week I think. I just really like James Jones a lot.

            I do believe Murray is an upgrade over Woodhead but I am not sure it is enough of an upgrade warrant giving up Jones.

            From last week, and the week before, he did get benched/sat with injury late in the games. that gives me a little pause when trading for him.

            From doing a very quick overview of the running backs, literally a minute, I would place Murray around 14 or 15 rest of season.

            I would put Jones around the same area but I think the receiver position is a lot better than the running back position.

            Usually if it is top 5 receiver vs top 5 running back I will take the running back. Outside of that usually if the receiver and running back are relatively close in positional rankings the receiver is going to win out.

          • Wow. Very valid points and good analysis. Impressive! Well…they accepted the trade of L. Murray for Jones and Abdullah about 30 minutes ago… and it missed the deadline so it will take effect on Tuesday. (Added bonus…coincidentally they absorb both Murray’s and Jones’ bye weeks that way) I know it’s probably not the best trade, but hopefully Murray can be a solid RB2. Thank you SO much for all your advice!

            I have a couple more questions.. is this the best place to ask them?

          • I don’t have a problem with the trade. It seems like that is the best you could do value wise and it is really nice that you don’t have to have the players on their bye week.

            I can answer any questions you have here or on Twitter. I can get a little more descriptive here. Twitter is more for quick hitting stuff like start this guy or that guy or should I do this trade yes or no.

          • Thank you. This is my first year of FF so all of your knowledge is a big help. I am wondering what you would do with Sam Bradford. I know we talked about not needing to carry 2QBs, but does he have too much value to just drop?

            What is your take on Greg Olsen? I drafted him high as he was supposed to be the #2 TR, but his production seems to be limited due to the lack of any wide receivers to pull away the defenders from him. Should I look into picking anyone else up or trading him while he still has the perception of being a top TR?

            The last thing is who do I start this week for WR and flex? I plan on starting Calvin due to his match-up, but Vick has looked totally incapable and Brown will be defended by Peterson this week… Who just shut down Calvin last week. Would u start Hilton only if Luck is back? That game looks like it’s going to be a shootout and luck and Hilton mesh well. Do I think of starting Hurns – who’s had 17 pts each of the last 2 games? Or do I start James jones one last time?

            P.S. I just traded Boldin (picked him up off waivers earlier this week) for Davante Adams who may be returning to GB next week. I figured he was a good buy low for the playoffs.

          • With Bradford I do think he carries value but only as a throw in for a trade. I think he is around the 15th ranked quarterback rest of season, which means for bye weeks or someone who waited on quarterback and got stuck with a combination like Romo and Tannehill Bradford is pretty appealing.

            Quarterbacks tend to be so hard to trade because of the quarterbacks that are available on the waiver wire if you are really desperate. I have no problem holding Bradford, I owned him but finally cut him loose last week after I traded for Rivers and wanted to get some bench running back depth.

            When it comes to Olsen, tight ends are never going to be fantastic. Olsen will have his good and bad weeks. He will have a lot more good than most tight ends. You have to lower the bar for tight ends compared to other positions.

            Last year in my league, its standard scoring but we used decimals so every yard counts, the number two tight end scored 9.6 points per week. It is early in the season so one really bad or one really good game influences a lot, but Olsen is currently averaging 9.1 points per game which is actually slightly better than what he did last year.

            Olsen is still a great option at tight end, you just have to remember 900 yards and about 8 touchdowns are considered near elite numbers from that position. Olsen may not be number two at the position but he is still one of the better options in the tight ends not named Gronk group.

            For your receiver and flex situation, I would actually probably sit Brown this week. I have a start sit column coming out tomorrow reiterating that many people will be forced to start him but if you have legitimate options I would actually sit him this week, and you definitely have good options.

            I think I would start Calvin, Hurns and Jones. Brown has the bad matchup and a bad quarterback situation. It looks like Luck and Hilton will be good to go Sunday night but just in case something happens to them you aren’t left with any backup options. Normally I would place Hilton above Hurns but that little extra-added risk moves him just below Hurns to me.

            If Luck and Hilton are both healthy and playing Hilton could easily go for 100 and a touchdown but I like to play risk averse. I have Hilton in a league and I am starting him but I do not have anywhere near the options you have. My only other option would be to start Kamar Aiken.

            When it comes to Antonio Brown you have to ask yourself what would hurt more? You bench him and he goes for 100 yards and a touchdown or if you start him and he goes for 40 yards and no touchdowns.

            You have five great options at receiver so picking the correct three every week is going to be tough for you. I think this week the best options would be Calvin, Hurns and Jones.

          • Forgot to comment on the trade. I like that deal for you. Boldin might have a good game in a good matchup this week but in the long run I would rather bet on Adams getting a chance to become the number two again in an offense led by Aaron Rodgers.

          • Thank you for that detailed reply. Wow, you really like Jones 🙂 ranking him above Hilton even if luck plays. I’m glad to see I’m not crazy for considering sitting Brown. I think I’m going to sit him even though he called out Vick for not throwing his way. That callout makes me feel he’ll get a few deep balls though.

            I was thinking the same thing about Boldin and that’s why I picked him up off waivers. Kapernick finally got it going last week and this week is against boldin’s former team so he could have a great game. I still have him this week. Would u start him over Hurns or Jones?

            My opponent this week has Freeman (who I traded to him a week ago Freeman and Cooks for Brown) so i’m already in the hole, but still projected to win 93-82 cuz he has Atlanta’s defense who laid an egg this week. Ppl said I sold at a good time for Freeman cuz it wasn’t known that he would continue his streak. I have kept Coleman cuz i still don’t think he can keep it up. Would u keep coleman as a handcuff?

          • Ya I thought Freeman was a good sell high option as well.

            Getting to watch a full game of him on Thursday makes me rethink that a little bit. The Atlanta line looked good and Freeman looked great when given the open running lanes. At this point I think Freeman is a top 3 running back.

            In a normal week I would take Hilton over Jones but Luck being hurt and it looks like he will play but it is not a guarantee. Hilton popped up on the injury report midweek which is never a good sign but then returned to practice Friday which is a good sign.

            I just don’t like taking the risk that in the Sunday night game he suffers a setback pregame or during the game and plays little if at all. I think Jones and Hurns are close enough to a healthy Hilton that I would rather start them than to take a risk on Hilton.

            The game being on Sunday night if something happens you don’t have any other options with only the Colts, Patriots, Eagles and Giants receivers as backup options if he suffers a setback pregame.

          • Yeah, i was thinking the same thing… sell high on Freeman after 2 dominant weeks. I agree he looks very solid. So solid, that I am considering dropping Coleman…but something is telling me it keep him for now.

            Ah, I now understand what you meant by ” in case something happens to them you aren’t left with any backup options.” Very valid point. Being new to FF, I completely overlooked the fact that the later start time was limiting. Would you start Boldin over Hurns or Jones?

            Great article posted today on on starting/sitting: http://fantasyassembly.com/2015/10/17/start-and-sit-week-6/ I now see why you like Hurns this week. FYI, I think you may have a typo in the Brown paragraph. In listing the players that someone may have, you put a period after Brown instead of a comma.

          • I would keep Coleman. If something happens to Freeman Coleman could do similar things that Freeman is doing. Not the 20 plus points every week type game but he can be a good option week in and week out.

            I think Hilton and Luck will play but I just don’t want to take that chance if there is an option that is near Hilton in value and you have that.

            I wouldn’t start Boldin over Jones or Hurns. Boldin would be a flex option if you were hurt by bye weeks but you have those guys as better options.

            Thanks for the notice on the period. That was definitely supposed to be a comma.

            Glad you’re enjoying everything on this site!

  13. Glad to help. Your help has been extremely valuable. Just on other thing… My opponent has Brady for tomorrow and I’m only predicted to win 89-83 now with this lineup. Knowing the likelihood of Brady racking up the points, do u still like those players? I may wait till afternoon to decide between jones and Hilton as calvin and Hurns have the early game. Would u agree that Hilton has the higher ceiling? Of so, If I’m behind going into the afternoon games, should I roll the dice with Hilton to try to absorb brady’s likely great performance? (all this assuming Luck and Hilton are both playing) Thanks and Gluck this weekend with yours!

    • I do think Hilton has the higher ceiling than Jones.

      It looks like Hilton is fine, so if you want to you can start him over Hurns. All the reports I am seeing puts it at a near lock for both Luck and Hilton to play.

      I think you can safely start Hilton this week. I would probably start him over Hurns rather than Jones.

      That would make your three receivers Calvin, Jones, and Hilton.

      The good news is after this week your receiver decisions will be a little easier because you won’t have Jones.

      Sometimes too many good options is a bad thing (mentally) because you just keep second guessing your decisions all week.

      • Thank you for the reply. I am wondering how much weight you put on opponent rank when choosing who to start. I see that Hurns is going against Houston which is ranked 16th and Jones is going against SD ranked 2nd. Hilton is going against against 20th ranked NE.

        • I don’t put a lot into it. It helps to an extent but you have to dig a little deeper because those numbers can be misleading.

          Im assuming you’re playing on ESPN.

          That number includes all receivers who earned stats against that team for a week. So number one receivers can be shut down but secondary guys could tear a defense apart or vice versa.

          You also have to factor in who the teams have played.

          The Chargers have played Detroit (dumpster fire), Bengals (gave up two touchdowns to receivers), the Vikings (no passings game), Browns (not much in terms of receivers) and the Steelers without Big Ben.

          The Texans have been good against guarding the top receivers in an offense but have struggled guarding the other options. Stopped Maclin, Ginn, Julio, and Hilton while giving up good games to Kelce, Olsen, Hankerson and Andre Johnson.

          The Texans struggles actually bode well for Hurns, but I give the extra little bump to Jones because he has one of the best quarterbacks of the past decade throwing him the ball.

          It is pretty close with those two so I don’t have a problem with starting either one. If I had the choice I would go with Jones.

  14. Thank you. Yes, good call, we are using ESPN. Nice to know exactly what that means. I agree it is a toss up between those 2. Unfortunately Hurns is starting early today so I can’t see where I’m at prior to deciding. I agree Hurns makes his pts riding in the shadows of Robinson but he also seems legit to run well after the catch. A Rodgers is coming off a “bad” week, so will probably go off for 35+ pts. I suppose either one would od be fine. I have a feeling it’s all going to come down to how well Brady does against me anyway.

    • I actually just saw a report that they are calling for high winds in the Texans Jaguars game, up to 20 mph. So that is another knock against Hurns, I still think he is a starting caliber receiver though.

      Ya, I can see Brady having a huge game this week, but if there is one thing I have learned about the NFL it’s that when everyone thinks they know the same thing the opposite happens.

      • HAHAHA, windy vs Rodgers enjoying his sunny week out in SD before heading back to WI. Yep, that pretty much settles that toss up. GREAT call! So here’s to Jones going off before his bye week, Hilton catching 2Tds enjoying Lucks return, and Calvin Johnson being targeted 50% of the time vs just 10% last week and reviving the Lions’ fans hopes of not having a complete dumpster fire season.

  15. Rodgers is actually playing in Green Bay this week.

    That is actually usually a good thing though. Rodgers, other than last week, typically puts up gaudy numbers at home.

    • Oh wow, I read that wrong. Thanks. Well then definitely a rebound game this week after last week.

      • Do you like Luck today and ROS? What would you attribute his poor start to the season to? Also just read that Yeldon is out for the Jags so i’m assuming they will pass more.

        • I do like Luck rest of season. The Colts have a lot invested in Luck and I do not think they would bring him back if he was susceptible to a setback. He might not be the top two quarterback he was drafted as but he is still a top tier quarterback.

          He got tough defenses early in the year, although when you have a stud stud defenses shouldn’t make you struggle as much as he did.

          He got dinged up in week three and played through it then missed the past two weeks. I think a healthy Luck is right behind Brady and Rodgers as the third ranked quarterback rest of season. Tonight will tell us a lot about how healthy he is, but like I said the Colts have a lot invested in Luck for this year and for the future. If putting him out there this week would risk further injury I do not think they would do it.

          Yeldon is out. I didn’t really expect him to play this week, he didn’t practice at all.

          I think it means a few more attempts for Bortles in the passing game which could lead to some more opportunities for Hurns. I don’t think it turns into anything like 10 plus more passes. Instead of Yeldon getting 20-25 carries it will probably be a split backfield with Robinson getting 10-15 and Gerhart getting another 10 or so.

  16. Quick, start Boldin or Jones? Which has higher ceiling? I’m down by 3 52-49 and predicted to lose 91—81.

  17. Started – Johnson: 22pts Hilton: 13pts Jones: 9pts
    Sat – Brown: 2pts, Boldin: 10pts, and Hurns: 9pts

    So the only possible improvement would have been Boldin over Jones…but with only a one point difference the risk would have not been worth it. Great calls on your part!
    I’m up 111-80 against an opponent who even had Brady: 22pts and Freeman: 27pts. My players have all played and he only has Rashad Jennings yet to play tomorrow. I’m feeling pretty good about getting to a 4-2 record tomorrow.

    I’ve finally found a website with solid info and great writers who are very logical and helpful. Thank you for the great write-up Andy and ALL of your help this week.I look forward to your next article. I’ll be sure to spread to the word about the site. Andy, you’re the man! Great work this week!

    • You’re welcome for everything, I am glad you enjoy it here.

      When it comes to making decisions it just comes down to what is more likely to happen.

      If you use all the information provided to you and you make a decision based on that information and you’re wrong there isn’t much you can do, the NFL is a very unpredictable thing.

      For me the only decisions that make me upset are the ones where I didn’t use all the information provided or I didn’t look into a decision more.

      I guess another thing that drives me insane is when someone I picked for a sit will have a terrible day overall but will score a touchdown so he has a good fantasy day. In reality Hurns and Jones had way worse days than Boldin but they got in the endzone to make it close, so in that case the touchdown actually helps.

      When making a call on who to start I think you want to weigh opportunity the highest then talent and matchup.

      Targets, receptions and carries are the most important things when it comes to a player’s value. Your player can’t provide you with fantasy numbers if he isn’t touching the ball.

  18. Ok so I’m in a 10 man league and I am undefeated so far. I am leading the league in points but I also have the fewest points allowed, so in a way I’m getting kinda lucky. Here is my lineup

    QB Newton
    RB1 Freeman
    RB2 Ingram
    WR1 Sanders
    WR2 Garvin
    WR3 K. Aiken
    TE Gronkowski
    Flex Sankey
    K McManus
    Def Patriots

    Bench
    Dez Bryant
    R. Matthews MIA
    E. Royal
    T. Williams Dal
    Rivers

    I really wanna have a deeper tram I’m thinking about trading Freeman for Beckham and Lewis PATS. Do you think that is a smart trade? Any other solid trades you can think of?

    • What all is available on your waiver wire?

      Your team looks to be in need of receivers and a good flex.

      If you can swing Freeman for those two that is a good deal for you. You get an elite player as someone you can reliably start in Freeman’s place.

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