Week 5 NFL DraftKings picks – Home Cooking

Neil previews his top DraftKings NFL plays for Week 5

Last week was alright, but not my best.  This week I am hoping that some home cooking will get me back to my big winning ways of Week 2 and Week 3.  Let’s see how it goes.

Any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil, and take a second to check out SportsBettingCanadian; expert sports betting tips and picks for Canadians.

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QUARTERBACK

Luxury Items: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($6,700)

  • Ryan is the cheapest that he has been all season, despite being in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome and facing the weak secondary of the Washington Redskins.  Washington is 21st in defensive efficiency against the pass this year and Ryan should be able to do some damage.

Bang for Your Buck: Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,000)

  • I may come to regret this pick as the Eagles offense certainly has not been the well-oiled machine that we all expected prior to the season starting.  But the Saints rank dead last in defensive efficiency both overall and against the pass and Bradford showed signs of life last game with 270 yards and 3 TDs.  I think Bradford has a good game.

Discount Bin: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears ($5,300)

  • The Chiefs have allowed 320+ yards to opposing quarterbacks in their last 2 games.  Cutler looked sharp against the Raiders in his first game back from a hamstring injury.  Good value at this price.

RUNNING BACK

Luxury Items: LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers ($8,500), Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys ($6,000)

  • Bell is super expensive this week, but he is the surest thing on the board.  The Chargers have allowed 2 100 yard games to running backs this year and Duke Johnson had a field day last week catching the ball out of the backfield.  Bell is potent at doing both, averaging 95.5 rushing yards per game and 7 receptions per game on the season.  Worth the high price tag.
  • The Patriots have not been great against the run, ranking 29th in defensive efficiency against opposing rushers.  The Cowboys will need to try to slow the game down and run the ball to keep the game close.  Randle is the clear #1 back in Dallas and could have 25 rushes and 120 yards.

Bang for your Buck: Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts ($5,000), Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams ($4,300)

  • Gore has picked it up of late with 80+ total yards in each of the last two games.  But even more importantly, even if Andrew Luck plays for the Colts, he won’t be playing at full strength and Indy will need to run the ball.  Look for a heavy usage game for Gore.
  • Great price for Gurley who was absolutely dominant last week.  He had 145 rushing yards on 19 carries against a really tough Cardinals rush defense.  He faces Green Bay this week who are ranked 31st in defensive efficiency against the run.  If the Rams can keep it close, Gurley should score nicely.

Discount Bin: Antonio Andrews, Tennessee Titans ($3,500), Boobie Dixon, Buffalo Bills ($3,000)

  • Andrews was the Titans’ leading rusher in their last game and looked impressive in doing so.  The Bills are 28th against the rush in defensive efficiency.  Could be 65+ yards and a touchdown which looks nice at this price.
  • LeSean McCoy is almost certainly missing this game with a hamstring injury and Karlos Williams suffered a concussion.  Boobie Dixon is next in line for carries in Buffalo and he’ll cost you the minimum amount of DraftKings salary for a running back.

WIDE RECEIVER

Luxury Items: Odell Beckham, Jr., New York Giants ($9,000), DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans ($7,200), Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($7,000)

  • Beckham has been dynamite at home with 225 yards receiving in 2 games versus 82 in 2 road games.  He plays San Francisco this week who are ranked only 28th against #1 receivers.  Should be a big game.
  • Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington are banged up.  There is literally no one else to catch balls for Houston.  Hopkins leads the NFL in targets with a whopping 61, 9 more than Julio Jones.  His 409 yards and 3 TDs on the season are not too bad either.
  • I love Edelman’s price in the PPR format of DraftKings.  He is still 10th in the NFL in targets despite already having a bye week, he is also 11th in the NFL in yards per game and tied for 6th in catches, again despite missing a game with a bye.  A nice safe play.

Bang for your Buck: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Bucs ($6,100), Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,000), Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins ($5,300)

  • Jacksonville is only 24th in the NFL versus #1 receivers.  Evans has had 25 targets over the last two weeks and is a prime breakout candidate.
  • This is a great price for Maclin who has had 11+ targets, 8+ catches and 140+ yards receiving in each of the last two games.  The Bears also only rank as the 29th best team against #1 receivers/
  • Garcon has had a bit of a resurgence this year, as he is tied for 22nd in the league in targets and tied for 18th in catches.  Jordan Reed is now hurt for the Redskins and DeSean Jackson has been out for Washington as well.  I always like guys who are essentially the team’s only viable option and Garcon is just that this week.

Discount Bin: Rueben Randle, New York Giants ($4,400), Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens ($3,800), Willie Snead, New Orleans Saints($3,000)

  • The 49ers really struggle in pass defense and have been quite bad against #2 receivers; ranking #32 in defensive efficiency and giving up 67.2 yards per game.  Randle has had 6+ targets and a touchdown each of the last two weeks.
  • Steve Smith,Sr. is hurt and Aiken is likely next in line for targets in Baltimore.  Aiken had 5 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh last week doing most of his damage after Smith left the game.  Could be more of the same this week.
  • I am all-in on Snead who I have picked up in 2 of my season long leagues.  He has had 6+ targets in each of the last 3 weeks and had 6 catches for 89 yards last week.  He looks to be a favorite target of Drew Brees and most likely won’t be on the cheap list for too much longer.  Take advantage while you can.

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TIGHT END

Luxury Item: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots ($7,500)

  • Truth be told, I don’t particularly love Gronk this week, but he is far and away the best tight-end in the NFL and gets more red zone looks than any other player.  Leads all tight-ends in yards per game and receiving touchdowns.

Bang for your Buck: Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills ($4,100)

  • Clay’s targets have increased every week of the season so far, culminating in a very impressive 9 catch 111 yard week last week after going for 82 yards and a touchdown the week before.  Tennessee is ranked dead last in the NFL versus the tight-end per defensive efficiency.  Could be a really nice week.

Discount Bin: Owen Daniels, Denver Broncos ($2,700)

  • So far this season, the Raiders have allowed the following lines to tight ends: a) 104 yards and 2 touchdowns to Tyler Eifert in week 1; b) 88 yards and 2 touchdowns to Crockett Gilmore in week 2; c) 105 yards and a touchdown to Gary Barnidge in week 3; and 4) 11 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown to Martellus Bennett last week.  Let’s see if Daniels can keep this impressive streak alive.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Bang for your buck: Denver Broncos ($3,600) @ Oakland, New York Giants ($2,900) versus San Francisco

  • The Broncos have been sacking teams at a higher rate than any other team and should be able to get after Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders.
  • The 49ers have turned the ball over frequently this year and the Giants have a formidable defense. I like this price.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @AssemblyNeil

 

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.