Neil previews his top DraftKings NFL plays for Week 4
It was a great week for my picks in week 3 as I hit home runs with my recommendations of Latavius Murray, Frank Gore, Ryan Matthews, Jamaal Charles, Gary Barnidge, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Randall Cobb. Many of my other recommendations who didn’t do as well were still solid (Edelman, C Palmer, M Evans, Landry, Gronk, J Reed, Seattle D). I helped our own Jim Finch finish in 2nd place in a contest and I hope I helped a bunch of you out as well. I’ll aim just as high for this week.
This week, I am gaga about the Oakland Raiders. Derek Carr has been playing great with 300+ yards in 2 of 3 games and Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have been legitimate receiving options. They also have a sweetheart match-up with the Chicago Bears. Let’s get on with the show.
Any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @nschnurbach
Luxury Items: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($7,900)
- For some reason, Rodgers price has gone down every week on DraftKings. The man has multiple touchdowns in every game this season and his yardage totals have gone up every game. He faces off against the 49ers who have allowed over 310 yards in the air in the last two games. Should be a huge week.
Bang for Your Buck: Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens ($6,000)
- The Ravens as a team haven’t been great, but Flacco has not been bad at all. He has over 360 yards passing and 2 touchdowns in each of his last two games. He now faces off against the Pittsburgh Steelers who are 26th in Football Outsiders’ Defensive Efficiency against the pass.
Discount Bin: David Carr, Oakland Raiders ($5,300)
- Carr has 310+ yards and 2+ touchdowns in each full game that he has played. He now has a great match-up against the Chicago Bears who are 2nd to last in defensive efficiency against the pass. I like Carr for a big game against the Bears.
Luxury Items: LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers ($7,300), Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers ($5,100)
- With Ben Roethlisberger out for the Steelers, they will no doubt rely on their potent running game. Bell was back to his old self in his debut last week with 132 total yards and a touchdown with 7 receptions. Again, DraftKings uses full PPR format and Bell will be running the ball and catching check-downs. Worth the price of admission today.
- Green Bay has really struggled against the run allowing an NFL high 5.0 yards per carry. Carlos Hyde should have a nice day against the Packers rush defense. My only concern is game flow as it is possible that the Packers get up big and the 49ers abandon the run. Nonetheless, I like Hyde this week.
Bang for your Buck: Rashad Jennings, New York Giants ($4,200), Mevlin Gordon, San Diego Chargers ($4,900)
- The Bills have allowed the fewest rushing yards of any team with only 222 against them, but per Football Outsiders they are only 30th in defensive efficiency against the run. Their 4.3 yards per carry allowed versus the run supports the notion that they are susceptible to giving up some yards on the ground. If the Giants commit to the run, Rashad Jennings will be the beneficiary.
- The Cleveland Browns have allowed 475 yards on the ground which is the most in the NFL. Their 4.9 yards per carry allowed is 2nd worst in the NFL, besting only the Packers. Melvin Gordon hasn’t topped 10.8 DraftKings points in any game this year, but I think this is the game that he busts out.
Discount Bin: Lance Dunbar, Dallas Cowboys ($3,600), Karlos Williams, Buffalo Bills ($3,400)
- Reminder – DraftKings is PPR scoring. Dunbar has the most receptions among running backs with 21, including having 10 catches for 100 yards in the first game with Brandon Weeden at the helm. I expect Weeden to rely on more safe throws to his running back meaning Dunbar will be in line for many more receptions. With Dez Bryant out and Jason Witten dinged up, the Cowboys need someone to catch the ball and Dunbar is their guy.
- Even with LeSean McCoy in the lineup Williams has been productive as he is the only running back in the NFL with a rushing touchdown in every game. Now it looks like McCoy will miss this game and Williams will have the backfield all to himself. Williams will be in over 50% of cash game lineups – don’t be left behind.
Luxury Items: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($9,300), Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers ($7,400), Brandon Marshall, New York Jets ($6,800)
- Julio leads the NFL in targets, receptions, yards and 20+ yard catches. He is also 2nd in receiving touchdowns. Roddy White has essentially disappeared and Leonard Hankerson is a #3 receiver. There is literally no one else in Atlanta and Jones should continue to dominate this season. Put him in your lineup if you have the cap room.
- The 49ers are #31 in the NFL in defensive efficiency against opposing team’s #1 receiver. Randall Cobb is the #1 receiver for arguably the best passing offense in the NFL. He had 3 touchdowns last week and could be in line for another couple this week.
- Marshall has been impressive in his new home scoring a touchdown every game and going over 100 yards in his last 2 contests. The Dolphins are #27 in the NFL in defensive efficiency against #1 receivers. Watch out for Marshall as he could go over 100 for the third straight game and score in a 4th straight.
Bang for your Buck: Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders ($6,300), Steve Smith, Sr., Baltimore Ravens ($6,200), James Jones, Green Bay Packers ($5,300)
- Amari Cooper has been supremely impressive and has gotten better every game. In his last 2 games he has gone over 100 yards. This week he faces the Bears who are last in the league in defensive efficiency against #1 receivers. Cooper is 13th in the NFL in targets and 8th in receiving yards. He will be in my lineups this week.
- Smith has been among the only Ravens who have shown up thus far this season. He has gotten opportunity ranking 3rd in the NFL in targets, 3rd in yards and 5th in receptions. Moreover, the Steelers are 29th in the NFL in defensive efficiency against the other team’s top receiver. Look for another nice game from Smith.
- I mentioned that the 49ers are the 2nd worst team in the NFL against top receivers – they are even worse against #2 receivers ranking last. Jones has at least a touchdown every game and was a monster last game with 7 catches for 139 yards. Keep rolling with Jones.
Discount Bin: Nelson Agholar, Philadelphia Eagles ($4,500), Ted Ginn, Jr., Carolina Panthers ($3,400), Robert Woods, Buffalo Bills ($3,100)
- This is my hunch play of the week – so don’t expect any hard-hitting analysis here. Agholar has been brutal thus far including catching no balls on 4 targets last week. I feel like the Eagles are going to break out against the Redskins and I think Agholar is going to have a big game. None of the numbers suggest that this will happen, but I am not sold on the Redskins secondary and feel like this is the week that young Nelson breaks out. Don’t use this play in cash games, but could be a nice GPP play if my hunch pays off.
- Ginn has emerged somewhat as there are literally no other options at wide receiver in Carolina. He ranks a respectable 34th in the NFL in targets and broke out with 93 yards receiving last week. Tampa Bay is #25 in the NFL in defensive efficiency against #1 receivers. A nice dart throw at this price.
- The Giants have allowed the most receiving yards in the NFL with an astounding 1,035 allowed over their 3 games. Sammy Watkins looks like he won’t play and Woods could be in line for quite a few targets. I like this play in GPP.
Luxury Item: Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears ($4,500)
- The Raiders allowed 2 touchdowns and over 100 yards to Tyler Eifert in week #1, 2 touchdowns to Crockett Gilmore in week #2 and 100 yards and a touchdown to Gary Barnridge in week #3. The Raiders can’t cover the tight-end and Martellus Bennett is a good tight-end – even with Jimmy Clausen throwing him the ball.
Bang for your Buck: Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions ($3,500)
- After not going over 40 yards in any game in his rookie year in 2014, Ebron has been over 40 yards in all 3 of his games this year, including a career high 61 yards last week. This week he faces the Seattle Seahawks who have a formidable defense but struggle against tight-ends, ranking 30th in defensive efficiency. Could be a nice game.
Discount Bin: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings ($3,200)
- Rudolph caught a touchdown in week 2 and dropped a would be touchdown last week. The Broncos are near the bottom of the league against tight-ends at 27th and Rudolph should have some opportunities.
Bang for your buck: Carolina Panthers ($3,300) @ Tampa Bay, Philadelphia Eagles ($2,700) @ Washington
- The Panthers defense has been solid thus far and gets to face Tampa Bay who is turnover prone. I think the Bucs will turn the ball over a couple of times and won’t score many points.
- Kirk Cousins is among the worst quarterbacks of all time in adjusted interception percentage. He will likely throw the ball to the Eagles a couple of times. Moreover, with Darren Sproles returning punts, there is always the possibility of a special teams touchdown as well.
For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @nschnurbach