DFS September 16 – Staying Disciplined

DFS Baseball LogoNeil previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for September 16th.

Today we have 15 games on the MLB schedule kicking off at 7:05 p.m. As always, make sure to check your lineup prior to game time for any last-minute scratches, and be sure to check the weather forecast for any potential cancellations.

 

It is the intersection of my 3 favorite DFS games, baseball, golf and football and I have to remind myself to stay disciplined with my bankroll.  I had a good opening week in football and have been steady in baseball all year, but I have to make sure that I don’t give back some of my gains in a bad week or two.  As for today, I am feeling pretty good about some players.  Let’s get to it:

Starting Pitchers

Studs: Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs ($14,000), Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros ($11,600)

  • How good is this guy?  On top of being lights out all year, he has been particularly tough against the Pirates in his career going 5-1 with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.9332 WHIP.
  • Keuchel has a 1.23 ERA with a WHIP of 0.818 and over a K per inning in 3 starts against the Rangers this year.  Awesome against everyone – even better against the Rangers.

Bang for Your Buck: Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals ($9,100), Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners ($8,800)

  • Garcia has a sparkling 2.33 ERA on the year; 0.64 ERA in 2 starts against the Brewers on the season.
  • Iwakuma has been effective against the Angels this year with a 2.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 2 starts.

Hail Mary: Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks ($7,000), Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants ($6,900)

  • Ray has a solid 1.114 WHIP and 9.3 K/9 against the Padres.
  • Peavy has a good chance for a win facing off against Michael Lorenzen.  Holds the Reds to a .225/.270/.337 line.

Catcher

Studs: Travis d’Arnaud, New York Mets ($5,000)

Adam Conley struggles away from home with a 6.62 ERA and .384 wOBA.  d’Arnaud feasts on lefties with a .424/.486/.879 slash line.

Bang for your buck: Yan Gomes, Cleveland Indians ($3,100)

Gomes is 5/13 in his career with 2 extra-base hits and a homer against Danny Duffy.

Hail Mary: Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies ($2,500)

Little known fact – Ruiz mashes lefties;  .398 wOBA and 154 wRC+ against southpaws this year.  He faces off against Gio Gonzalez today.

First Base

Studs: Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants ($4,300)

Michael Lorenzen gives up a .335/.441/.596 line to lefties with a .439 wOBA.  Belt has a .365 wOBA and 139 wRC+ against righties,

Bang for your buck: Cris Carter, Houston Astros ($3,500)

Carter is 6/13 with 2 homers and 2 walks in his career against Martin Perez of the Rangers.

Hail Mary: Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners, ($2,000)

Montero absolutely loves facing Jered Weaver.  He is 5/10 with a whopping 4 homers against the Angels’ righty.

Second Base

Studs: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros ($5,300)

Altuve has a .379 batting average and a .409 wOBA against lefties on the year.  In his career against Martin Perez he is 5/12 with 3 extra-base hits.

Bang for your buck: Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals ($4,000)

Adam Morgan allows a .506 slugging percentage to righties.  Rendon has a .356 wOBA and 125 wRC+ versus lefties.

Hail Mary: Kolten Wong, St. Louis Cardinals ($3,600)

Wily Peralta allows lefties to hit him at a .296/.343/.520 clip.  Wong has a .342 wOBA and 117 wRC+ against righties.

Shortstop

Studs: Wilmer Flores, New York Mets ($3,600)

Flores could have a field day with Adam Conley.  .412 wOBA and 168 wRC+ versus lefties.

Bang for your buck: Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals ($3,400)

Has been pretty good against lefties (.339 wOBA) and even better in the 2nd half (.353 wOBA and 123 wRC+).

Hail Mary: Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs ($2,800)

A solid 16/34 in his career against AJ Burnett.

Third Base

Studs: Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals ($4,300)

Faces Peralta who struggles against lefties.  .374 wOBA against right-handers on the year.

Bank for your buck: Travis Shaw, Boston Red Sox ($3,400)

Lefties have a great .304/.368/.500 line against Mike Wright.  Shaw has a .377 wOBA and 137 wRC+ in the 2nd half.

Hail Mary: Freddy Galvis, Philadelphia Phillies ($3,-00)

7/20 with 3 extra-base hits in his career against Gio Gonzalez.

Outfield

Studs: Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets ($5,500), George Springer, Houston Astros ($4,500), Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals ($4,300)

  • Cespedes is the hottest player in baseball as his 17 homers with the Mets will attest.  Excellent match-up against Conley.
  • Springer is a top player against southpaws with a .387 wOBA and 149 wRC+.  He faces lefty Martin Perez tonight.
  • Werth has really come on in September with a .388 wOBA and 147 wRC+.  Good match-up against Morgan.

Bang for your buck: Jason Heyward, St. Louis Cardinals ($3,500),  Jacoby Ellsbury, New York Yankees ($3,400), Alejandro De Aza, San Francisco Giants ($3,300) 

  • Peralta struggles against lefties and Heyward has a .301/.355/.471 versus righties.
  • Ellsbury has been ice-cold going 1 for his last 25, but Chris Archer may cure what ails him as Ellsbury is 14/21 with 4 walks in his career against the Rays’ righty.
  • Lorenzen can’t get lefties out and De Aza has a .335 wOBA against righties.

Hail Mary: Juan Lagares, New York Mets ($2,900), Ryan Raburn, Cleveland Indians ($2,400), Darin Ruf, Philadelphia Phillies ($2,300)

  • Lagares has a .348 wOBA and 124 wRC+ versus lefties.
  • Raburn has a .317/.396/.583 line versus lefties and gets to face off against Danny Duffy (.344 wOBA allowed to righties).
  • Ruf is 7/20 with 2 homers and 5 BB versus Gio.  .369/.427/.595 on the year versus southpaws.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @nschnurbach

 

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.