DFS – June 25 – de la Rosa ^2

Paul previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for June 25th.

Today we have 11 games on the MLB schedule starting at 1:08 p.m. Keep an eye on the weather forecast, as there may be issues with the following games: Los Angeles at Chicago (NL), Atlanta at Washington, Cincinnati at Pittsburgh,
Make sure to check your lineups before game times for late scratches or further weather issues. 

I haven’t done a Thursday write-up for some time and figured I’d be doing a Turbo contest today. Fortunately Draft Kings has some all day contests with this shortened schedule, making for a lot more options and a lot more fun. I am convinced the Diamondbacks at Colorado game will be a good contest to stack some bats. In fact, I did my research and found that the square root of 18 runs is actually “de la Rosa”; that’s what may happen when you multiply one de la Rosa against another as in today’s game. It would be wise to get a few hitters in there from that contest, but without sacrificing the pitching slots, it’ll be difficult to stack. I’ve got a couple of Rockies in my lineup today while going over my pitching budget by $100 taking the conservative approach. If I was entering a tournament play (and I likely will), I may be more inclined to take some chances for my #1 starter. As is, here are my picks for cash games today:

1. Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets ($10,100) deGrom goes up against the Brewers today who rank near the bottom offensively against RHP and for the month of June. Their walk per strikeout rate of .27 is the worst in the majors, but it’s been even lower this month, sitting at .23. deGrom meanwhile has been outstanding with a 2.34 ERA, a .213 BAA, and a strikeout per inning this year. In his past 6 starts, deGrom is 4-1 with just a 1.42 ERA and nearly 10 K per 9 innings. Vegas has the Mets as -135 favorites with just 7 runs as the over/under in the match up.

2. Chris Heston, SP, San Francisco Giants ($7,500) Heston has 7 wins already with a 3.34 xFIP and a 20.4% K rate for the year. Raise your hand if you saw that one coming! He has an elite GB rate at 54.5% and is allowing just a 23.8% Hard Contact Rate (11th best in the majors). Today Heston faces the Padres who are a woeful 25th overall against RHP with a .292 wOBA. While Heston isn’t a big strikeout guy, the Padres rank 5th worst at 22.4% against RHP. Over the past month, they’ve been even worse at 25.7%. Vegas has the Giants as -120 favorites with just 7 runs as the over/under in the match up.

3. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies ($5,500) The last time Tulo started a game and didn’t reach base was May 20th, 27 games ago. For the month of June, he’s hitting a cool .375/.423/.528. Today he’s at home (where he’s hitting nearly .350) against Rubby de la Rosa whom he has a 1.381 OPS in 7 plate appearances against. Rubby has a 4.96 ERA for the year, but against teams other than the Padres it’s 5.87. Coors shouldn’t be kind to Rubby and I’m cashing in my big chip here with Tulowitzki.

4. Matt Carpenter, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals ($4,300) I’ve got $100 left over today and was tempted (briefly) to slide Yasmany Tomas in at $4,400 against J. de la Rosa in Coors today. I’m sticking with my guns though as Carpenter just destroys right-handed pitching with a near 1.000 OPS for the year. Today he faces Dan Haren who has given up 9 HR and 7 doubles to LH hitters in just 152 AB in 2015. There are many good stacks to use today, including LHH Cardinals and I’ve got a couple in my lineup today. None for me come before Matt Carpenter. 

5. Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Mets ($4,100) Granderson hit his 11th home run last night to go with 40 runs and 37 walks in this season’s first 70 games. He can’t hit left-handers at all, but there’s good value when he’s up against a RHP. Today he faces Taylor Jungmann who has had some success in his first 3 starts in the majors. Against LH hitters though, Jungmann has allowed a .323/.364/.452 line. Granderson has homered in 3 of the past 4 games and I like him to do well against the Brewers rookie arm.

6. Rajai Davis, OF, Detroit Tigers ($4,100) Davis is a good safe pick, hitting .412/.474/.647 at home against LHP this year. For his career, he’s hit over .300 with an .800 OPS against lefties. Today he goes against Carlos Rodon, whom I expect great things from, but up until now RHH have a .403 OBP against him. I don’t expect the Tigers to rough up the young LHP, but I do think Rajai could be the key contributor for Detroit today.

7. Ike Davis, 1B, Oakland Athletics ($3,700) I’ve got 3 pretty good value picks today but Davis is perhaps my favorite. Davis does well against RHP, but generally sits against LHP. He’s only been off the DL for 4 games, but has a hit in 3 of them hopefully having shaken the rust off. Today he goes up against Texas RHP Colby Lewis who has a 4.35 xFIP for the year. Lewis has given up the lowest HR/FB% of his career, while giving up nearly his highest ever FB%. Some correction is due as Lewis should return to his home-run-allowing ways. If I could have gotten a big bat in at 1B today I would have, but I preferred my Tulo/Davis combo to finding a cheaper SS option and a top first baseman.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @fantasyassembly

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Paul Hartman

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Fantasy Baseball player since 1987. Creator of Fantasy Assembly, yet just fortunate enough to be a part of it.