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Weekly Assembly: Dynasty League Trade

Ask Assembly 9Each week we will feature one reader question here.  Each member of the Assembly will attempt to offer the best answer for you.  Together you’ll have more than 100 years of experience responding to your issue.

Daniel has a trade question.  Thanks for sending this in Daniel, we’re happy to help.  Check back in the upcoming days for our answers.  Good luck and thanks for visiting us at Fantasy Assembly.

 

Hello Assembly, This is a 2 part question as I was offered these two trades in the same day…go figure.
I am in a 16 team dynasty league, head-to-head scoring
Hitters – R, HR, RBI, AVG, SB, BB, 2B, 3B – Pitchers – W, K, ERA, WHIP, SV, HLD, IP, QS
26 players per team & the contracts are as follows:
two 5 years, three 4 years, four 3 years, six 2 years, remaining are one year contracts.
We also have 170m salary cap.

I was proposed: Manny Machado (7m/4 years), Jed Lowrie (6m/3 years) and Brandon Beachy (5.5m/3 years) for My K. Seager (4.5m/3 years) and Jose Altuve (5.25m/3 years).  Do you think Machado’s potential is great enough to trade for?  Would you do this deal?  I like Beachy because he is cheap and can be replaced by a free agent since he is a DL player.  Lowrie’s drop in production is a concern, but I like his 2B/SS eligibility.

I was then proposed by a different manager: G. Springer (3m/5 years) Ventura – MiLB roster – not signed until end of season after call up (2.5m/6 years beginning next year) and C.J. Cron (4.5m/3 years) for My Trout (5.25m/4 years) Hudson (2m/1 year)

I am perplexed on this as I was not thinking anyone would offer me this for Trout.  Important facts: 1. When a player is on the DL (Beachy), you can sign a replacement for $1m (this can be a free agent or a MiLB player on your roster…..ie, Ventura)  2. At the end of a player’s contract they can be optioned for a price determined by their Yahoo! rank at the conclusion of the season.  So at the end of Trout’s contract, he can be optioned for another 5 years at a price TBD….same for all players.   A team can only do this with ONE player a year.  I would appreciate any help as I am perplexed on both. Thanks, Daniel

 

Thanks for the question Daniel, have at it gentlemen

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18 comments on “Weekly Assembly: Dynasty League Trade

  1. I’ll start with the second trade first. No! A recent trade discussion on twitter was for a trade of Mike Trout for Andrew McCutchen & Clayton Kershaw. This is the value you are looking for when talking about Trout. Springer might turn out to be very good. C.J. Cron might turn out to be very good. And, Ventura might be very good one day. But there is no way I trading Trout for 3 maybe’s. Not to mention the fact you can basically designate Trout as your franchise player by picking him up for another 5 years after his contract is up. I want one established player of first round quality plus another player if I’m going to consider trading Trout, contracts or no contracts.

    As for the first trade, I’m going to say no as well. Jed Lowrie is 30 years old with one good year under his belt. He may pick it up in the second half, but it’s looking like last year was a career year and nothing more. You don’t know how Beachy will come back from TJ surgery so trading for him is a risk I wouldn’t take. There are plenty of young pitchers out there every year that can be just as good. The other side of this trade is Seager, who may not be the best 3rd baseman but he is one of the more consistent ones. Nothing fancy, but you know what you’re going to get. Then there is Altuve who just seems to be getting better. I don’t expect the speed we saw last week all the time, but he’ll deliver in 3 categories. Add on the fact that Springer & Singleton are there and a few more very good young players are right behind them. Houston is going to be good which can only improve Altuve’s numbers.

    The final guy coming to you is Machado. How good he can be comes down to who you talk to. As for me, I’m torn. Part of me see’s the upside of acquiring him but the other part of me can’t help to compare him to Brett Lawrie. There’s a lot of hype surrounding him, but just like Lawrie, he’s only showed glimpses of it. Is Machado worth Altuve & Seager, not really. Adding Lowrie & Beachy may make it seem like you’re getting a good deal, but you’re only getting salary relief. I suggest you go back to him, take Lowrie & Beachy out of the equation and ask for a different player to go with Machado to make this a little more even.

  2. Thanks for the quick reply Jim. I agree on the Trout deal. I wish I could get a Cutch AND Kershaw type deal…wow!
    I also received a counter this morning on the first deal, he kicked out Beachy and offered me Addison Russell (6 year contract once he is called up.

    I had my concerns with Machado..he is a sexy name and the power is coming back the last week or so, but he seems like a bit of Lawrie. I can see it.

    • Adding Russell makes this better, but still not good enough. Is your team in contention? You seem to have some nice pieces.

      If not, I might be tempted to move guys like Seager and Hudson for a prospect, but if you are in the race then staying the course may be your best option.

  3. I like the idea as well to counter with a different player….I like Machado, but I don’t want Lowrie for 3 years!

  4. Lowrie is not often healthy, and he’s only had one good season. His poor first half may not get any better in the second half. The fact that he costs more than Altuve and Seager makes me pass on this deal. Beachy had TJS at the beginning of the year, but remember that not all players come back in 12 months, and not all do well out of the gate. As such, you’re eating his salary for this year, he may not play all of 2015, he may struggle in 2015, and so you’re getting potentially one good year out of his contract.

    Machado could be a stud, but it’s still a COULD at this point. He has a good approach, but he’s not hitting 20+ HR like Harper and Trout, which affects his value. Defense doesn’t score in fantasy, so he’s likely going to be a better real-life player than a fantasy player, in my opinion. I’d do what Jim suggests: ask for a better second piece to go with Machado.

    As for the second trade, if you have up to 9 years of control on Trout, you’d need an arm, a leg, and the whole torso to move him. For an example, this year in my 15-team 5×5 league, I traded Trout for Braun, Adam Jones, Alexei Ramirez, and Gerritt Cole. We keep 4 MLB players, so Braun and Jones are very nice pieces to have going forward. I got two first-round talents for Trout, plus some “win now” pieces to compete for the title…. and part of me still regrets pulling the trigger. Cron isn’t likely to be anything special anytime soon. Springer’s K% and contact rate scary, and I worry he could be a slightly better version of Rickie Weeks: speed and power with no BA. I actually really like Ventura, but SP aren’t as essential to a keeper team as a fantastic bat. If you took out Cron and inserted a much better piece, I might consider the Trout trade fair, but I’d still want the side with Trout.

  5. Thanks for the questions Daniel. Here is my take:

    Trade 1: This deal is not even in the ballpark of helpful. I have been a Beachy supporter in the past, but at this point, you have to question whether or not he will ever make it back. TJ does not have a 100% success rate and right now he looks like one of the unlucky ones. I do not think his possible (unlikely) upside is worth taking on an extra 5.5 M.

    I like Machado’s potential, but Seager is better right now and cheaper. If this was a straight up trade, I would consider it, but not with the other parts. Taking on Lowrie for Altuve is just wrong. Altuve is emerging as an elite MI and you have him locked up cheap for the next 3 years. Lowrie just looks like a bad contract at that price, so no way I am doing this deal.

    In this deal, you are taking on money while giving up the 2 best players. Don’t be tempted by Machado, this one is not even worth countering.

    Trade 2: If you are going to trade away a very cheap Mike Trout, you better get multiple studs that will guarantee you a title right now. I like Springer, but Trout is not really much older, so I don’t see any reason to consider this one either.

    Cron and Ventura are nice assets, but again, to give up Trout, you need a LOT more, and you should not be giving away Hudson in this deal either.

  6. Very interesting Daniel, but you don’t want to trade Trout. You control him for what would look like a life time in fantasy land. I like Manny very much and it seems to me he will become more value with the pasting of the years, but here you need more. I would work on improving that trade. Good Luck, Six Pack

  7. Hey Daniel,
    You’ve got some pretty solid arguments above on why you should not accept the deals. I definitely agree on the second one. Ventura/Springer isn’t nearly enough for Trout.
    I agree hesitantly on the first one but only because I’m a huge Russell fan. To acquire Machado and Russell for Altuve and Seager isn’t a bad deal. When Lowrie is factored in as well as the salaries of each it is a no go too though.
    Thanks for the questions… I like all 4 of the trade pieces you would acquire a lot but the cost is too high.

  8. Thank you everyone for the input. I have officially nixed the Trout deal….I have a tendency to fall in love with the sexiness of prospects and that can be dangerous!
    I like Russell a lot as well that is why the deal: Machado, Lowrie and Russell for Seager and Altuve was intriguing. I have ECab as my SS and he is garbage.

    The problem I am running into is who to add to the deal in place of Lowrie. The intriguing pieces are…M. Harvey (3m/4 years) – but he coming back from TJS, K.Davis (2m/4 years) – but I have enough OFers, Stanton (7m/5 years) – but he said I would have to include Trout, Votto (13m/1 year) – but he is on a 1 year deal and I would have to option him for around 13ish, Jordan Zimmerman (6m/2 year) – but I’m not sure Zimm would be enough.

    I love the idea of getting Machado and Russell, I just don’t know who to add. I tried to take Altuve out, but that is the player he wants.

    • Hey Daniel
      I agree with everyone’s sentiment on Deal #2, so let’s discuss Deal #1 which appears to be up for ongoing discussions.
      The original offer was you send K. Seager ($4.5/3yr) and Jose Altuve ($5.25/3yr) for
      Manny Machado ($7/4 years), Jed Lowrie ($6/3 years) and Brandon Beachy ($5.5/3 years).
      If the owner is most interested in Altuve I would first ask what other 2B options you have or what else is out there. (Where are you sitting in the ranks now? I am wondering if you are a playoff team this year or building for the future). Anyway, if you were sending Seager and Altuve to receive Machado, Addison Russell and another piece, I am most intrigued by Matt Harvey. Not only does his contract look attractive but he has the highest upside of the players mentioned, Giancarlo aside. If you could land Machado, Russell and Harvey, I would do that deal.

  9. Hey Peter,

    I am currently in first place and have been all year long that is why I am hesitant to mess with anything LOL
    I agree that Harvey would be a great add, but I tried to include him to no avail. Plus this manager is very high on Russell and Machado. I can try with the trade above as I initially asked for Harvey in a different trade.
    He did offer to pay some of Lowrie’s contract, not sure on the specifics but it would help.

    2B available – Lowrie, DJ LeMahieu, Grodon Beckham, Brain Roberts, Rickie Weeks, Yangervis Solarte, Danny Espinosa (all at league minimum)

    I like the deal (minus Lowrie at $6m) cause I like Machado and Russell gives me a future SS since ECab is garbage.

    • I really like the substitution of Zimmermann for Lowrie. Zimm is underrated simply because he doesn’t net 200 K, but two years of control on him would be nice. He’ll help you this year for the playoffs, and you’ll have another year of control on him to boot. If you can somehow sub Zimm for Lowrie and another piece (Harvey or Davis) for Beachy, I’d strongly consider it.

      • I love Matt Harvey, but if you do that, you more or less eliminate any chance you have to win this year.

        As for grabbing Zimmermann instead of Lowrie, that certainly changes the valuation of the trade and tilts it back close to even, but what does it do to your team balance? You are losing a ton of offensive production that will be very difficult to replace. The only way I consider this deal is if your offense is totally dominant and you were considering trading a bat for an arm anyway.

        Still though, understand that pulling the trigger on a deal like this means you are emphasizing future needs over current ones, and you are in first place! I would not be trying to acquire a prospect right now unless you could get him by dealing away excess.

  10. Would it change anyone’s opinion about the deal if I said i have a trade to send Cutch and Guthrie for Cruz (4.25m/2 years) and Bailey (7m/1 year)?

    I am tempted to do this deal if I can get salary covered for Lowrie (just lost ECab) and SS is thin now….plus I love the idea of adding Russell.

    • I don’t know what Cutch’s contract status is, but that trade seems fair in a vacuum. Keep in mind though, Cutch is a long term keeper and Cruz is not.

      Still though, this deal does not make the other one any better. Lowrie might be healthy, but he is no better than Everth and I just don’t think it is a good idea to trade current assets for future ones when you are in first. I am sure you can find a stopgap until Everth is ready to return. Don’t let a minor injury force you into a bad trade.

      • I know Cruz is hot, but in a keeper league I’m not trading McCutchen for Cruz regardless of contract. Tomorrow I’ll have an article up titled Buy, Sell, Hold, outlying hot or cold players to trade for or away. In a sneak preview, I listed Cruz as a player you want to trade away. He’s a hot bat right now and playing waaaay over his head, and that owner is using Cruz’s pretty numbers to entice you into thinking you’re getting a good deal. The only way I consider trading McCutchen is if he is in the final year of his contract and I have zero chance of making the playoffs.

        • Thanks for the reply. Speaking of ECab…I almost dropped his lameness! But I am holding onto a shred of hope.
          So you know, Cutch is in a 1 yr deal and could be optioned at season’s end for 23.5m which to me seems really high. With Trout I would want to spend my money other ways. The manager has Buxton who could be interesting to add in somehow.
          He would be the highest OF in the league. I like getting Cruz for 25-30 bombs this year and next and if I traded for Homer he would cost 8.5m over 3-5 years.

          Thanks again for the help!!

  11. In that case, I like the Cruz/Bailey trade since keeping Cutch is so expensive. You save $, get an OF for 2 years rather than 1 and the acquisition of Bailey more than makes up the gap between Cruz and Cutch for this season.

    Still no on the other trade though.

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