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Your Team NOT Mine

The 2014 season is just around the corner with mock drafts heating up and leagues starting. There are an incredible amount of ranking lists out there already. Just on our site alone, we’ve got 2014 rankings, consolidated keeper rankings, dynasty rankings and prospect rankings done and we’re now doing our consolidated 2014 rankings. For other rankings from other great sites visit Fantasy Rundown’s Rankings Page.

While I enjoy these rankings like most of us fans do, there are some players that I think are over-hyped, likely causing their draft price to be prohibitive. I will not own any of these players unless something drastic happens. I just don’t think they call for A) their current draft average or B) the hype they’re getting pre-draft. I’ll look at pitchers in a separate post.

CATCHER

Wilin Rosario: Currently the 4th catcher off the board at Couch Managers, Rosario is going ahead of Mauer, McCann, Lucroy, Perez and Wieters. The Rockies signing of Justin Morneau in the offseason effectively ends Rosario’s shot at getting extra at bats at first base. With a ceiling of 475AB, don’t look for more than 25HR. That sounds pretty good at the C slot, but he has one of the worst BB/K rates in the game. His .292 AVG in 2013 was BABIP driven and I expect his poor contact rates will come back and hurt him. These things usually find a way of “catching” up with young hitters. I’ll happily wait on one of the previously listed guys, or even Ramos and Gattis, drafted 70-80 picks later.

FIRST BASE

Chris Davis: An ADP of 8 is more than I’m willing to pay for a player with a 30% K rate and a .854 post all-star OPS. Don’t get me wrong. If he’s around in the second round in a roto-style league I’d take my chances, but no chance I want him where he’s at, and no chance I expect a repeat of 2013. His second half 21% HR/FB rate is a lot closer to his career norm than his first half 35%. I’m buying the 35 HR power, but with a .265 AVG. This isn’t mid-first round material for me.

SECOND BASE

Jason Kipnis: .261/.343/.371 Those are Kipnis’ second half numbers. A bit better than Alberto Callaspo but not as good as Marco Scutaro. I don’t know how Kipnis is sneaking into the conversation of best second baseman in baseball, but I’m not buying it. Cano could play in Siberia and I’d still want him at #1. Kipnis is being taken in mocks at 18 overall, while Carpenter goes 41, Prado goes 91 and Daniel Murphy goes at 105. Heck, Neil Walker at 177 seems like a better value than Kipnis. For two consecutive years, Kipnis has come on strong only to completely collapse in the second half. When are your fantasy playoffs again?

THIRD BASE

Ryan Zimmerman: In 8 seasons, let’s look at what Zimmerman has done:

G AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Career 142 554 83 22 84 4 .286 .352 .477
Last 3 Years 131 524 76 21 74 5 .281 .347 .464

I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with that, but I’m not using a 4th round pick for a 20/75/.280 hitter who has already peaked. It’s all a moot point really for me since I will own Bogaerts EVERYWHERE, but I’d also prefer to wait on Seager (76), Prado (91) or even Headley (133).

SHORTSTOP

Everth Cabrera: Did you know Cabrera was being drafted at an average of pick #77? This .250 career hitting 27-year-old whose ISO isn’t visible to the naked eye? I understand 40 SB is nice and all, but are steals really that hard to find?? Eric Young Jr, Rajai Davis, Jarrod Dyson, Juan Pierre all sat on waiver wires for almost all 2013. Steals are the easiest stat to find and Cabrera offers nothing else. He’ll hurt you in AVG, RBI, HR and likely R as well. Simmons at 102, S.Castro at 108 , Lowrie at 114, even Miller at 176 I’d rather not only wait for, but I’d rather own.

OUTFIELD

Carlos Gonzalez: Considering I am the only Assembly Member not to put Carlos Gonzalez in my First Round, and that he’s averaging pick #7 in Couch Managers mock drafts, it is a pretty safe assumption that I will not own Gonzalez. I want stability with my first round pick because while you can’t win your league in the first round, you certainly can lose it. Gonzalez is great when he plays but the reality is he was 29th best OF in 2013, 17th in 2012, and 16th in 2012. If you like 20/20 guys, he’s a good one, but Venable and Crisp also did that in 2013. My biggest concern though, might be his ridiculous K rate that keeps getting worse and has reached near Dunnian levels. I’ll take Votto, Freeman, Beltre first. I can’t afford to lose my first round pick.

Carlos Gomez: Pick #28 ahead of Justin Upton, Jose Bautista, Shin-Soo Choo and Wil Myers seems a little exorbitant for this career .255 hitter. Check out Rotobanter’s Projection for Gomez for 2014:

G AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
137 485 77 21 59 33 .260 .317 .462

That’s good enough for 20th best OF in his rankings. Even adding 10% across the board doesn’t put him at pick 28 in my book. Steamer projects a line of .254/.310/.456. (THIS IS PICK 28!?!?) There are lots of better places to invest that early 3rd round pick.

I’ll look at pitchers in the future and list the players I likely WILL own in 2014.

 

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Paul Hartman
Fantasy Baseball player since 1987. Creator of Fantasy Assembly, yet just fortunate enough to be a part of it.

6 comments on “Your Team NOT Mine

  1. Very cool list Paul. Certainly a few players on here that I just submitted as keepers for this year in various leagues.

  2. Thanks Pete….Most of these guys I’d love as keepers. I just don’t see them being worth their hype this year.

  3. 4 of those guys were on team last season. I got Rosario at good draft value last season, which won’t happen this season, so I’ll probably pass for the reasons you listed above, and I’ll be happy with any of the guys you mentioned going after him. Davis I’m keeping (if you remember, we have a salary based keeper limit (5 players under 50 salary) and Davis is at a 7, Gomez I’m keeping (at a ridiculous 1 salary), and CarGo I have to let go (or trade, but his salary is extremely high at 19). With our league keeper restraints it came down to McCutchen at a 16 or CarGo at a 19, which is a no brainer to me, again for the same reasons listed. I just can’t count on him playing 150+ games.

    • At the right cost, I’d love them all. At $7 and $1, Davis and Gomez could be your most valuable players in 2014. Thanks for comments Kyle, always good to hear from you.

  4. I think you nailed it on a bunch of these (Hello, Everth!), but Kipnis is the one that sticks out for me. I just don’t get the appeal with him.

  5. Re: “I will own Bogaerts EVERYWHERE”…

    :)

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